Shares Portfolio May 2014

Compared to last quarter  and a year ago, since February, the portfolio is down 12% while the NSE 20 share index is up 2% this quarter. Compared to last May, the portfolio is up 17%. 

The Stable

Barclays ↑

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑

Centum  (ICDCI) ↑

Diamond Trust ↑

East African Portland Cement ↑

KCB ↑

Kenya Airways  ↑

Kenya Oil ↑

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↑

Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Unga ↑

Changes

• In: None
• Out: Equity Bank
• Increase: Kenya Airways
• Decrease: None
• Best performers: Unga (up 46% this quarter), Portland Cement, 32%, Safaricom 10%
• Worst performer: Scangroup (down 0.4% this quarter)

Unexpected

• Barclays cutting back globally and re-aligning around four pillars, one of which is Africa growth.
• Bralirwa profit dip (due to economic downturn and new taxes in the DRC)



Safaricom Academy student performs at the results

• Safaricom’s super profits despite another challenging year, but which they ended with $1.7 billion in revenue and and $270 million in profits. The company chairman said that have been Kenya’s largest taxpayer for six straight years (paying $3.6 billion in taxes and fees in ten years) and you can be sure the government will support them, no matter how much the (floundering) competition complains. 

Looking Forward To

• Kenya Airways getting four more Dreamliners from Boeing this year.
• More M&A deals that involve listed companies like Centum who are still battling for control of Rea Vipingo.

Shares Portfolio February 2014

Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is up 0.13% while the NSE 20 share index is down by 5.25% since  November 2013.

The Stable

Barclays ↓

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓

Centum  (ICDCI) ↑

Diamond Trust ↑

East African Portland Cement ↓

Equity Bank ↓

KCB ↓

Kenya Airways  ↓

Kenya Oil ↓

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↓

Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Unga ↑

Changes

In: None

Out: None

Increase: Kenya Airways

Decrease: Diamond Trust

Best performer: Centum (up 22% this quarter), then Diamond Trust (14%), Safaricom 6% 

Worst performer: Scangroup (down 15% this quarter), then Kenya Airways  (-14%), KCB (-10%)

Looking Forward To 

- Bank profits & dividends, though it's going to be a rough year 

- Diamond Trust rights issue.

- More M&A deals that involve listed companies like Centum.

- The downward trend echoes back to 5 years ago  when every share was down, and Diamond Trust was the best performer by only losing 8%. Since then, it is up 229%. 

Site vs. Site

The online share buying platforms of CFCStanbic Financial Services (SBG Securities) and Dyer & Blair Investment Bank are eerily similar.

Shares Portfolio November 2013

Performance: Compared to last quarter and also a year ago, the portfolio is up 50% in value from last year (excluding new investments), while the NSE 20 share index is up is up 22% since November 2012.

The Stable

Last 3 months 

Barclays ↑

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓

Centum  (ICDCI) ↑

Diamond Trust ↑

East African Portland Cement ↑

Equity Bank ↑

KCB ↑

Kenya Airways  ↔

Kenya Oil ↑

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↓

Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Unga ↑

Changes

In: Kenya Airways

Out: None

Increase: None

Decrease: None

Best performer: Portland Cement (up 47%), Safaricom (39%), Centum

Worst performer: Kenol (down 18%), Bralirwa (-8%)

Looking forward to Deal-making at Unga, Scangroup, MTN if they materialize. 

Shares Portfolio August 2013

Comparing the basket to five years ago, shares that have remained in the portfolio throughout are Stanbic (UG), Scangroup, KCB, and Diamond Trust while Safaricom is back in after a lapse. Also the NSE 20 share index is up 3% from where it was five years ago.

The Stable

Barclays ↔

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑

Diamond Trust Bank ↑

Equity Bank↑

ICDCI (Centum) ↑

Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑

Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓

Portland Cement (EA) ↓

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↑

Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Unga ↔

 

Review

- The portfolio, excluding new shares, is up 4% since May 2013 while the Nairobi Shares Exchange main index is down  2% over the same period.

- Best Performer: Centum (up 15% in 3 months), Bralirwa 12%

- Worst Performer: Kenol (down 14% in 3 months), Stanbic -12%

- In: None

- Out: None

- Increase: Centum

- Decrease: None

Unexpected gains/losses: Scangroup's profit drop owing to a troubled investment in Nigeria, and Kenol rebounding with a half year profit.

Shares Portfolio May 2013

Performance: Compared to last quarter and year ago, the portfolio is up 9% in value from February (excluding new investments), while the NSE 20 share index is up is up 7.5% since February 2013.

The Stable

Barclays ↑

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑

Centum  (ICDCI) ↑

Diamond Trust ↑

East African Portland Cement ↓

Equity Bank ↑

KCB ↑

Kenol ↓

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↓

Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Unga ↑

Changes

In: Centum, Portland Cement

Out: Total, EABL

Increase: Equity, Kenol, Safaricom

Decrease: None

Best performer: Safaricom (up 30%), Equity, Stanbic  

Worst performer: Kenol (down 29%)

Looking forward to:

- Dividends from Equity, Barclays, KCB, Scangroup, Bralirwa and Safaricom.

- Coldtusker writes about upcoming rights issues at the NSE including Uchumi and National Bank. 

- Still yet to venture into Kenya government treasury bonds a year later.

Other Events:

- Access Kenya is being bought out by Dimension Data and will be de-listed from the Nairobi stock exchange - pending regulatory approval, shareholder approval, and no better offers.

- Citi released bearish reports during the Kenya election on Equity and KCB based on unsustainable interest rates, and growing non performing loans, among other issues in the Kenyan banking sector. 

- Citi also had a report on Kenya Airways predicting two more years of losses, difficulty financing Boeing 787 planes without raising more capital, that is probably beyond the appetite of current KQ shareholders and other NSE investors. It mentioned the possibility of Etihad Airways extending their new code share partnership into an investment in KQ, but the airline has to remain 51% Kenyan owned in order to enjoy preferential African route rights. Other large shareholders in the airline are teh Government of Kenya, KLM airline, and the International Finance Corporation.

- The Safaricom 2013 results (PDF) results released this morning showed that revenue grew by 16% to $1.45 billion (including MPesa revenue of $256 million) and profit before tax grew 47% to $300 million. 

- Umeme of Uganda which cross-listed at the NSE has still not had a trade in Kenya despite some okay performance in the last few months.

Shares Portfolio February 2013

Comparing the portfolio to three months and about five years back which was just before the last Kenyan general election.

The Stable

Barclays ↑

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑

Diamond Trust Bank ↑

East African Breweries (EABL) ↑

Equity Bank ↑

Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑

Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓

Safaricom ↑

Scangroup ↑

Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Unga ↑

What's changed?

In: None

Out: Kenya Airways

Increase: EABL, Equity, KCB

Decrease: None

Dividends: None yet 

Best performer: Bralirwa's (up 31% in 3 months) then Stanbic (UG) and KCB

Worst Performer: Kenol down 5% 

Unexpected gains/losses: Sold Kenya Airways, which despite troubles at rivals [Jetlink (suspended flights in November) and Fly540/FastJet (shareholder wrangles)], still has major clouds ahead with uncertainties over the delayed Boeing 787, hedging, staff, and serving routes in Europe and Asia. 

Performance Summary: The NSE 20 share index is up 10% in the last three months, while this portfolio is up 11%. But, at 4,500, the NSE 20 Index is below what it was in November 2007 (~5,100) before the election. 

Other Developments: 

Mining Sector: A media session took place this week with a goal to demystify the mining sector. The announcement in 2012 that oil had been found in Kenya raised some unrealistic expectations about sudden wealth that will be available to Kenyan communities including a recent notice by the Minister for Environment requiring that mining ventures should have 35% local ownership and another this week by the Kenya Revenue Authority on payment of withholding tax on the transfer of oil and mining assets (10% from payments to locals, and 20% for foreigners).

Kwale Mineral Sands

Discoveries this week at the session included: 

  

(1) A Kenyan investor can buy shares in the Kwale Mineral Sands project as Base Resources (who are developing it and who will build a local processing plant) are listed at the Australian and London (AIM) Exchanges.  

(2) Mining companies are always on the lookout for local partners & investors who are sophisticated and wealthy enough to understand the risks of mining.

(3) The sector comprises prospectors, explorers, and large mining companies each of who invest increasing amounts of capital from $50 000 at the prospecting stage to $1 million at the exploration stage to over $100 million at the mining stage and all assume varying degrees of capital, risk, and longer payback periods. Typical mining investors are interested in bullish markets, and stable countries with established policies on mining while conflicts over land use vs. mining rights remain perennial challenges (also affected this particular project).

Also see Can Kenya Avoid the Resource Curse?

GEMS:  The Nairobi Securities Exchange launched a Growth Enterprise Market Segment (GEMS) a few weeks ago to promote the listing of small and medium enterprises. The  basic criteria for a company to qualify include being in operation for at least one year, have audited accounts of at least one year (but no profit requirement),  have sound management and board consisting of at least 5 directors, commit to have at least 25 (non-employee) shareholders own at least 15% of the shares within 3 months of listing, and appoint an NSE-nominated advisor to help them with governance. 

At the launch, the NSE Chairman noted that GEMS provides an opportunity for firms participating in Kenya’s natural resources and mining sector to raise capital and also comply with the 35% local equity component. 

Online Commerce:  In the last week, South African-based Private Property Holdings and Kenyan-based Cheki Africa Media merged their businesses to form One Africa Media, possibly Africa's largest classifieds portal‏, even as Naspers shut down Mocality in Kenya and Nigeria.

Shares Portfolio May 2012

Comparing to last quarter  and a year ago.

The shares market seems to have bottomed out and share prices have surprisingly, for an election year, began to go back up after a long downward period.

The Stable
Barclays ↑
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑
Britak ↑
Diamond Trust Bank ↑
East African Breweries (EABL) ↑
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Uchumi ↑

Review

• The portfolio, excluding new shares, is up 12% since February 2012 while the Nairobi Shares Exchange main index is up 14% over the same period.
• Best Performer: Uchumi  (up 109% in 3 months), Britak (33%) Scangroup, EABL, KCB, Kenol (all +20%)
• Worst Performer: Kenya Airways (down 20% in 3 months), Stanbic Uganda (due to exchange rate)
• In: None
• Out: None
• Increase: Took up some, but not all of the Kenya Airways (KQ) rights
• Decrease: none
• Unexpected gains/losses: A buyout at Kenol of the majority shareholders was announced,  but the future for minority shareholders is unclear with the (under-valued) shares now suspended from trading. More Kenol deal analysis by Coldtusker.

Events/Outlook:  

• Equity Bank's James Mwangi lamented that more foreigners and hedge funds now see the under-valued shares  of the bank and are buying (now own 43% of the bank) more than local investors.
• A fight between the directors of the Tuskys super market chain exposed the rapid growth of this unlisted company, whose turnover and profit of Kshs 20 billion was almost twice that of listed Uchumi, but whose profit of Kshs 245 million was about half of  Uchumi's.

•  Safaricom's  full year results after a tough year 
• With the high cost of bank funding (loan rates are still at +18%), Standard Chartered, East African Breweries and Total have all borrowed from their foreign parent companies for local investment and capital commitment.

Looking Forward to:

• - Payment of the Barclays special dividend to go a long with final dividends from KCB, Scangroup and others. But it's hard to keep track of dividend payments and bonus issues since the Nairobi Stock Exchange stopped sharing their daily free price lists.
• Cautiously investing in Government bonds. Got a CDS account with the Central Bank of Kenya for bond trading, but with so many doing it now (it takes three weeks to get an application approved), it's time may have passed.
• Results of the Kenya Airways rights issue (May 30)
• New listings from CIC Insurance, and Longhorn Publishers, but UAP have pushed back  their back their plans till around 2013 and indecisive Family Bank has again postponed a listing decision.

 

Shares Portfolio February 2012

Comparing to last quarter and a year ago.

2007 was considered a wait & see year for firms in Kenya and 2012 looks to be the same with elections set for sometime in the last third of the year. Banks are expected to announce profits this month, amid allegations that some of their gains were due to lax oversight by the Central Bank which may also have contributed to the weak Kenya shilling late in 2011. Local news is dominated by electioneering, loan rates are above 25% and it's expected to be a challenging year for Kenya Airways, Safaricom and other companies as well.

The Stable
Barclays ↓
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Britak ↓
Diamond Trust Bank ↓
East African Breweries (EABL) ↑
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Uchumi ↓


Review
Best Performer: EABL (up 12.9% in 3 months), Safaricom, KCB
Worst Performer: Stanbic Uganda (down -28.8% in 3 months), Britak, Uchumi
In: None
Out: None
Increase: KCB, KQ
Decrease: none

Unexpected gains/losses: Last week, Barclays announced special dividend to go a long with a final dividend. Similarly, Williamson Tea announced a record interim special dividend of Kshs. 50 ($0.55) per share following the sale of their building.

ION two companies at the NSE - East African Portland Cement and CMC Group
appear to have imploded from the inside with board wrangles disrupting the company operations and leading to both being suspended from the NSE.

Events/Outlook: The portfolio excluding new shares is down 4% from last November, while the Nairobi Shares Exchange main index is down 9% over the same period.

Looking Forward to:
1. Investing in Government bonds - the government was selling a 30 year savings bond that paid 12% and targeted to raise Kshs. 18 billion with a minimum investment of Kshs 50,000 ($615), and this month, there's a tap sale of 12 year infrastructure bond 12 year as the government seeks to raise Kshs 17.7 billion ($196 million). Minimum investor amount is Kshs. 100,000 ($1,111) and the average yield has been 16.6%
2. Kenya Airways rights issue
3. Any other new listings at the NSE.

Shares Portfolio November 2011

Comparing changes to three months ago and a year ago, investor confidence has dipped further, and the Kenya shilling is even weaker, having fallen past the Kshs. 100/$ to the dollar before last week's drastic rate hike by the Central Bank brought the rate back to to 95, but which also pushed most commercial banks loan rates to 25%

The Stable
Barclays Bank ↓
Bralirwa Breweries (Rwanda) ↑
British-American Investments (Britak) ↓
Diamond Trust Bank ↓
East African Breweries (EABL) ↓
Kenya Airways (KQ) ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↓
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↔
Uchumi Supermarkets ↓

Review: The Portfolio is down 2% in the last three months as is the NSE 20 Share Index, which is also down 2%.
- Best performer: Bralirwa 24% (only share that has appreciated in this Qquarter)
- Worst performer: Britak -38%, Kenya Airways -25%
- In: Britak
- Out: None
- Increase: KCB, KQ
- Decrease: None

Other
Splits: None
Bonus: None
Dividends: Interim from Kenol, and Barclays, and it was pleasant to be able to encash a Bralirwa Rwanda dividend cheque over the counter at KCB in Nairobi - unlike with Stanbic (UG) Uganda, that takes about a month clearing and the bank charges can take a huge chunk out.

Events:
- Safaricom shocked with a 47% drop in half year profits to September 2011.
- Kenya Airways got shareholder approval for a rights issue to finance fleet expansion in the next few months (Said to be at Kshs 21/= which is about where the share is now.
- Tanzania has the Precision Air IPO and Tanzania Breweries sale but the mixed signals - welcoming/shutting out East Africans, and not getting proper approval from Kenya’s capital markets means there's likely to be little cross-border participation once results are announced.

Data: The NSE now has a shares app for Android mobile phones and signed a partnership creating two new FTSE NSE indices.

Shares Portfolio August 2011

Comparing changes to three months ago and since then, investor confidence has dipped following rising food & fuel prices, power rationing and a sliding shilling.

The Stable

Barclays Bank ↓
Bralirwa Breweries (Rwanda) ↑
British-American Investments (Britak) ↔
Diamond Trust Bank ↓
East African Breweries (EABL) ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↓
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Uchumi Supermarkets ↓

Review: The Portfolio is down 5% in the last three months while the NSE 20 Share Index is down 12%
- Best performer: Bralirwa 33% (this Q), then Kenol 22%
- Worst performer: Uchumi -39%, Diamond Trust -26%
- In: Britak, Safaricom
- Out: None
- Increase: None
- Decrease: None

Other:
Splits: Barclays
Bonus: Diamond Trust , Scangroup, and Stanbic Uganda
Dividend: KCB, Diamond Trust, Bralirwa, Kenol Scangroup, Stanbic
Events:
- Uchumi re-listed after five years of suspension.
- Took on the new IPO from Britak IPO (results on August 23), but passed on other new listings from Transcentury and Bank of Kigali. Meanwhile there are no privatizations on the table from the Government of Kenya
- NSE companies are making efforts to clean up their shareholder registers, with a view to applying dividends that have been unclaimed for several years to their reserves, otherwise they will have to be surrendered to the Government

Data: The NSE has stopped sharing free price lists, which now makes it harder to access daily market data. Meanwhile the CDSC has stepped up with investor awareness, and you now get a SMS notification of trades (shares sold/bought)

Shares Portfolio May 2011

Enjoying the fruits of some good 2010 performance in an uncertain 2011

Comparing share performance to three months and a year ago.

The Stable
Barclays Bank
Bralirwa Breweries (Rwanda) ↑
Diamond Trust Bank ↑
East African Breweries (EABL) ↑
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓
Scangroup ↔
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi Supermarkets ↔

Review:
- Best performer: Bralirwa 11% (this Q), then East African Breweries 10%
- Worst performer: Kenol (-4%)
- In: Barclays
- Out: Safaricom
- Increase: Kenya Airways
- Decrease: None
- Performance: The Portfolio is down 1% in the last three months while the NSE 20 Share Index is down 7%
- Uchumi, which is out of receivership, has finally got the green light from the CMA to re-list at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, though the date and conditions of re-listing have not been specified.
- Safaricom’s 2010 results which will be released on May 18, are widely expected to show a drop in revenue and profit owing to the price wars in the mobile sector.
- Kenol resumed its battle the Ministry of Energy after a quiet period as motorists grappled with an unexpected shortage of petrol (This inspired an innovative site called Find Fuel . The Kenol AGM was live streamed and can be found on YouTube.

- Stanbic Uganda had reduced profits owing to bad loans combined with staff & IT expense increases.

Events & Outlook:
Looking forward to
- Dividend payments from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (Uganda), Kenol
- Bonus shares from Diamond Trust (1:5), Scangroup (1:5), and Stanbic Uganda (1:1)
- New share listings: There's been no word yet from Transcentury and Britak. During the quarter, CFC-Stanbic spun off their insurance arm – CFC Insurance which is now listed on the stock exchange, and will soon to be joined at the NSE by CIC Insurance.

- Why list?: The newspapers, this week had advertisements from the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) highlighting tax and other benefits of listing shares or raising capital in Kenya. These include;

Newly listed companies will enjoy reduced corporates taxes if;
(i) They list 20% of their shares, they will pay 27% income tax for the next three (3) years on profits (while other corporates pay 30%).
(ii) List 30% and pay 25% tax for next 5 years on profits.
(iii) List 40% and pay 20% tax for next 5 years on profits.

Tax exemptions;
- A tax amnesty on omitted past income
- Dividend taxes paid to venture capital firms
- Income to employee share option programs (ESOP’s)
- Interest income on long term infrastructure bonds

Also all East African nationals are treated as ‘locals’, not foreign investors in allocation of IPO shares and get (lower) withholding tax on their dividends. These and other tax deductible expenses including payments for credit-rating, listing & issuance costs, and some exemptions from stamp duty, can be found at the CMA site.

Shares Portfolio February 2011

A tale of Two Brewers – comparing shares to November 2010 and a year ago

The Stable

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑
Diamond Trust Bank ↑
East African Breweries (EABL)
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi ↔

Review:
- Best performer: Bralirwa up 31% since their 2010 IPO
- Worst performer: Scangroup (down 14%), then EABL
- In: Bralirwa
- Out: None
- Increase None
- Decrease: None
- Unexpected gains/losses: - Uchumi shares have not been re-listed despite the company’s exit from receivership a year ago

Events & Outlook: - Performance: The Portfolio is down 3% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 6%
-Bralirwa Rwanda was a good buy as the Rwanda (virtual monopoly) beer company listed shares that were open to all East African nationals and many retail shareholders got full allocation (still waiting for a similar offer from Tanzania); However in Kenya EABL faces challenges from the so-called Mututho Law which appears to have curtailed sales of alcohol through reduced hours.
- Safaricom seem to be weathering the storm from Airtel Kenya and their battle has extended to political and regulatory circles. Airtel added only 2 million more customers in all Africa compared to a year ago (Dec '09)
- Kenol has gone quiet since the Kenya Government instituted price controls around the country and despite popular expectations, prices have steadily risen in the two months since the program started.

Looking forward to: - February brought news that Transcentury and Britak - British American insurance plan to list at the stock exchange this year. Britak, Kenya’s 4th largest insurance company looks more likely – it had a 2009 pre-tax profit of Kshs 500 million and assets of 15 billion ($185 million). Transcentury shares trade at an OTC market run by Dyer & Blair - and (this week) are at Kshs 35 per share compared to Kshs 48 in 2010 according to the East African.

CIC Insurance, CFC Life and Family Bank are silent, while government linked companies like New KCC, Consolidated Bank, and National bank, are also likely to go through more political hoops before they reach the market.

- Also on offer this month is a 30 year savings bond from the Central Bank of Kenya to promote savings in the country. It pays 12% per year and targets to raise Kshs 18 billion ($221 million) with a minimum investment of Kshs 50,000 ($615), and closes on. Exactly two years ago, there was a similar push for an infrastructure bond offered by the Kenya Government to raise 18.5 billion ($231 million) by offering investors 12.5% returns over 12 years.

Shares Portfolio November 2010

Solid portfolio gains, some speculative buys since last quarterly review in August 2010

The Stable
Diamond Trust ↑
EABL ↑
Kenya Airways ↓
KCB ↑
Kenol ↑
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi ↔

Review:
- Best performer: Scangroup up 74% this quarter
- Worst performer: (tie) Kenya Airways, Safaricom both down 16%
- In: Safaricom, Vipingo (error)
- Out: None
- Increase Kenol, EABL
- Decrease: None
- Unexpected gains/losses: None

Events & Outlook: - Performance: The Portfolio is up 29% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 1.5%.
- Got dividends from: Stanbic, EABL & KQ, awaiting Safaricom (which will be paid by M-Pesa for the second year) after getting some Safaricom shares, and attending their (no SWAG) AGM
- Kenol and the Government reached some settlement which has stabilized their share price, but the battle exposed other sector players like NOCK, Gulf Energy, and Addax.
- Safaricom appear to have withstood the initial price war by Zain/Airtel as there is now concern about how long Airtel can keep the low prices in Africa.

new airtel logo? via india4indians.com
- New blood: The Kenya Government is doing a KPLC doing a rights issue, and share conversion of preference, while private companies on the horizon may include CIC Insurance, CFC Life, Deacons, and Family Bank

Shares Portfolio August 2010

Market picking up steadily since last quarterly review in May 2010

The stable
Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↓
KCB ↓
Kenol ↓
Safaricom
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Uchumi ↔

Review:
- Best performer: Scangroup Safaricom up 25% this quarter
- Worst performer Kenya Airways down 10%
- In: Kenol
- Out: None
- Increase None
- Decrease None
- Unexpected gains/losses: None

Events & Outlook:
- Performance: The Portfolio is up 8% in the last three months while the NSE Index is up 10%.
- Got dividends from all the banks, which are improved performance this year. Dividend included that from Stanbic Uganda but its still a problems to cash as Stanbic Kenya is incapable of partnering with Stanbic Uganda to ease the encashment process – even better would be for Stanbic Kenya though CSFS to facilitate more share buying perhaps reinvestment of dividends to buy more Stanbic UG shares
- Sat out the KCB rights issues whose results came out today (August 10). The Bank had set out to raise Kshs 15 billion ($189 million) from shareholders but yielded 83% of that – 12.45 billion
- Scangroup’s investment in Ogilvy Africa
- Kenol rebounded from problems at battle with government to report some much improved first half profits.
- Looking forward to buying Safaricom shares, and attending their (no SWAG) AGM
- Uchumi is yet to re-list despite exiting their receivership phase
KQ leased 737 from KLM
- Privatization: The Kenya Government is short on cash but their privatization basket is still empty. Nothing has come yet from National bank and East African Portland cement, while the next infusion of cash is likely to be from Kenya Power & Lighting Company. Meanwhile the Kenya government bond market has been much more active than the equity one.

Shares Portfolio May 2010

A rising tide lifts all boats

Tracking changes from three months and a year ago

The Stable

Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
KCB ↓
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi ↔
Performance: Portfolio is down 2% in value from February after exit from Safaricom which was about 10% of Portfolio, while the NSE is up 18% since February 2010
In/Out: Exited Safaricom completely, after accumulating shares since the 2008 IPO. One of the most liquid stock at the NSE, with lot of foreigner interest, and one I will buy back later
Increase/decrease: None
Best performer Diamond Trust and Scangroup, each up 23%
Worst performer: KCB down 6%

Events
Unexpected Gains/Losses
- Uchumi lifting itself out of receivership and applying for re-listing at the Nairobi Stock Exchange
- The communication spat pitting Safaricom versus the three other mobile companies, and another Scangroup buyout deal, both featured in this post here.

Other events
- The Housing Finance merger dance with Equity Bank here
- Another share split announced by Kenol Kobil (2nd time in six years)

Looking forward to
- Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (Uganda)
- @coldtusker says to watch kapchorua Tea at 140, Kenol at 93.5, Kenya Airways 56, and KPLC 185 and compare 6 months from now while Riba Capital is watching tea stocks, KPLC and Housing Finance.

Share Portfolio February 2010

Unchanged since last quarter and compared to a year ago

The Stable

Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↔
Uchumi ↔
Trades: None
In: None
Out: None
Increase/decrease: None
Best performer Kenya Airways up 106%, then Safaricom 38%
Worst Stanbic UG, no change (actually was up 5 UGX per share, but the Uganda shilling is weaker)
Unexpected Gains/Losses: None
Performance: Portfolio is up 11% while NSE index is up 17% in three months – thanks largely to Safaricom which is ¼ of the index.
Events
- Uchumi may resume trading at the Nairobi Stock Exchange after four years of suspension now that shareholders have approved restructuring of remaining debt in consultation with the banks who put the chain under receivership.
- Unlisted investments are tricky to track and problematic to measure or exit.

NSE Portfolio November 2009

Equity market stalled since last quarterly review in August 2009 , as bond activity goes full steam

The stable

Diamond Trust
Kenya Airways
KCB Bank Group
Safaricom
Scangroup
Stanbic (Uganda)

Review:
Best performer: Stanbic (Uganda) is up 17% this quarter, then Safaricom up 7%
Worst performer Scangroup down 6% then Diamond Trust down 5%
In: none
Out: none
Increase: none
Decrease: none

Unexpected gains/losses:
- Kenya Airways paid a dividend despite a record loss
- Registered for Safaricom m-pesa dividends which will be paid today (November 12)

Performance: The Portfolio is down 1.4% while the Nairobi Stock Exchange NSE 20 index is down4.4%. Safaricom has more weight on NSE than here, but either way is poised to boost both portfolios

Events & Outlook:
- No trades or new investments made in the quarter, but took part in one unlisted agricultural investment
- Missed out on Family Bank capital raising /rights issues as it is locked out to new investors (since September 2009) Ð (its due to close within a week)- - Passing on another Uchumi rescue plan which also closes within a week

NSE Portfolio August 2009

Market picking up steadily since last quarterly review in May 2009

The stable

Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑


Review:
- Best performer: Safaricom up 34% this quarter
- Worst performer KCB up 5%
- In: none
- Out: none
- Increase none
- Decrease none
- Unexpected gains/losses: KQ record loss, safaricom profit drop

Events & Outlook:
- Performance: The Portfolio is up 12% in the last three months while the NSE Index is up 14%. I’d like to think I’m doing better, but Safaricom has lifted the index to a greater extent than my portfolio (8% weight). Safaricom largest weight on the NSE, is also probably now the country’s largest tax payer, largest retail ISP, seller of mobile phones, mover of retail money etc.
- got dividends from all the banks, which are experiencing a slowdown in growth in 2009. Dividend included Stanbic Uganda but will have to increase shares there to minimize impact of clearing foreign cheques so that it does not eat ¼ of
- Looking forward to dividends from Safaricom (but no SWAG ) from Safaricom and another from Kenya Airways (despite their making a massive fuel hedge loss)
- Privatization The Kenya Government has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009, however these may not be listed until the market picks up sufficiently. Will look at Family Bank and KWAL (Kenya Wine Agencies)
- New media: The Nairobi Stock Exchangem - @NSEKenya is now on Twitter, while the CDSC launched a new web site to enable investors to better track their portfolios.

NSE Portfolio May 2009

hit bottom? Time to buy?

Last quarterly check of the Nairobi share portfolio was in February 2009 and a year ago
The Stable

Diamond Trust ↓
Kenya Airways
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Review:
- Best performer: KCB up 2%
- Worst performer Stanbic down 30% (combination of share drop and weaker Uganda shilling), and Safaricom down 10%
- In: Kenya Airways
- Out: none
- Increase none
- Decerease none
- Unexpected gains/losses: none

Events & Outlook:
- Performance: Portfolio is up 1% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 3.5%
- Bought KQ, tried to buy illiquid Kenol at 30

Looking forward to
- Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (UG)
- Privatization commission has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009