Thursday, February 17, 2011

Shares Portfolio February 2011

A tale of Two Brewers – comparing shares to November 2010 and a year ago

The Stable

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑
Diamond Trust Bank ↑
East African Breweries (EABL)
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑
Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi ↔

- Best performer: Bralirwa up 31% since their 2010 IPO
- Worst performer: Scangroup (down 14%), then EABL
- In: Bralirwa
- Out: None
- Increase None
- Decrease: None
- Unexpected gains/losses: - Uchumi shares have not been re-listed despite the company’s exit from receivership a year ago

Events & Outlook: - Performance: The Portfolio is down 3% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 6%
-Bralirwa Rwanda was a good buy as the Rwanda (virtual monopoly) beer company listed shares that were open to all East African nationals and many retail shareholders got full allocation (still waiting for a similar offer from Tanzania); However in Kenya EABL faces challenges from the so-called Mututho Law which appears to have curtailed sales of alcohol through reduced hours.
- Safaricom seem to be weathering the storm from Airtel Kenya and their battle has extended to political and regulatory circles. Airtel added only 2 million more customers in all Africa compared to a year ago (Dec '09)
- Kenol has gone quiet since the Kenya Government instituted price controls around the country and despite popular expectations, prices have steadily risen in the two months since the program started.

Looking forward to: - February brought news that Transcentury and Britak - British American insurance plan to list at the stock exchange this year. Britak, Kenya’s 4th largest insurance company looks more likely – it had a 2009 pre-tax profit of Kshs 500 million and assets of 15 billion ($185 million). Transcentury shares trade at an OTC market run by Dyer & Blair - and (this week) are at Kshs 35 per share compared to Kshs 48 in 2010 according to the East African.

CIC Insurance, CFC Life and Family Bank are silent, while government linked companies like New KCC, Consolidated Bank, and National bank, are also likely to go through more political hoops before they reach the market.

- Also on offer this month is a 30 year savings bond from the Central Bank of Kenya to promote savings in the country. It pays 12% per year and targets to raise Kshs 18 billion ($221 million) with a minimum investment of Kshs 50,000 ($615), and closes on. Exactly two years ago, there was a similar push for an infrastructure bond offered by the Kenya Government to raise 18.5 billion ($231 million) by offering investors 12.5% returns over 12 years.

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