Google Launches Local Maps Domain for Kenya

On March 31, 2009 Google launched the local domain for Google Maps in Kenya, - an interactive map with many features and business listings.

Some Features
- Users can add locations to their own my maps (Local celebrities have contributed (Wangari Mathai, Churchill, and Julie Gichuru)
- Content can be added to maps by individuals such as photos of place, restaurant reviews, hotel information (no. of rooms, visa card accepted) and Wikipedia entries
- Photos that have coordinates can be over-laid
Business owners can add their business locations and details
- Collaborate users can share information and invite select others to contribute on parties, events, add maps and event-related information
- Privacy information can be designated as private of public (search engine accessible)
- Local websites can embed google maps by simply by adding some code
- Mobile phone same features for kenya also accesible via Google Maps for Mobile - like search, driving directions, show traffic, favorites, and my location
- Mapmaker: Tool can be enhanced with google mapmaker
- All these are Free

Other Mapping Events
- March 31 Skunkworks Tuesday at KCCT Teleposta Towers 4th Floor, from 5.45 pm. A talk by Dennis Karanja, Regional Director EA Sybase, a mobile phone application development company.
- More developer workshops being held today @Google
- Google will also sponsor Where Camp Africa on Saturday April 4

Kenya Bank Rankings 2008

Top 10 banks at December 2008

Assets
1. KCB (rank last year - 2) Kshs. 174.7 billion (~$2.19) billion
2 Barclays (1) 168.8b
3 Standard Chartered (3) 99.14b
4 Cooperative (5) 83.9b
5 CFC Stanbic (4) 83.2b
6 Equity (6) 77.2b
7 Commercial Bank of Africa (7) 50.1b
8 Citibank Kenya (8) 47.5b
9 NIC (10) 42.7b
10 National Bank of Kenya (9) 42.7b
Then Diamond Trust, Investment & Mortgages, Prime, Housing Finance, Imperial

Profits
1. Barclays Kshs 8.0 billion (~$100 million)
2. KCB 5.39b
3. Equity 4.76b
4 Standard Chartered 4.7b
5. Citibank Kenya 3.35b
Then Cooperative 3.33b, National Bank of Kenya 1.8b, Commercial Bank of Africa 1.7b, Investment & Mortgages 1.62b, NIC 1.47b

Deposits
1. Barclays Kshs. 126.4 billion (~$1.58 billion)
2. KCB 109.8b
3. Standard Chartered 76.9b
4. Cooperative 65.9b
5. CFC Stanbic 61.5b
Then Equity 50b, Commercial Bank of Africa 41.8b, NIC 35.2b, National Bank of Kenya 34.3b, Diamond Trust 32.7b

Loans
1. Barclays Kshs 108 billion (~$1.35 billion)
2. KCB 79.3b
3. Cooperative 53.3b
4. CFC Stanbic 44.2b
5. Standard Chartered 43.3b
Then Equity 40.9b, NIC 30b, Commercial Bank of Africa 26.3b, Investment & Mortgages 25.9b, Diamond Trust 25.4b
Source: from published audited accounts for 2008

Rea Vipingo 2009 AGM

Nairobi Stock Exchange listed Rea Vipingo Plantations Limited and one of leading producers of sisal held’s its’ 2009 annual general meeting on March 27 2009 at the Panafric Hotel Nairobi

Meeting started at 11 a.m. sharp with a short video shown about the company explaining more about its background and what it does - Created by an amalgamation of companies in 2003 that acquired more estates in Tanzania in 1995, got listed on the NSE in 1996. Since it was listed sales have grown from Kshs 537 million to Kshs 1.2 billion and production is now at 17,000 tons per annum

The meeting led by company chairman Oliver Fowler went straight into shareholder questions immediately after the video

Professional shareholder alois chami stood to ask a question (he’s at every AGM and always asks a couple of inane questions – virtually all company chairmen & secretaries know him by name) – but his mobile phone went off and he had to sit and answer it about a half dozen phones go off at every meeting, and some shareholders magnify this discourtesy by answering the calls

how the company’s’ performance was in 2009? Chairman said it was quit good, maintained their markets, still getting good buys from China, while the weak shilling/strong $ has also helped them

impact of the global economic crisis? performance still good as company has good cash position, scaled back capital expenditure and made some cutbacks. Still they can’t predict how the sisal industry will perform and are also nervous

competition from petrol twine versus their sisal twine (the price of oil is 1/3 of what it was a year ago). Chairman said their primary competition, was not from synthetic twine, but from other sisal produces – as they were all competing for a diminishing pool of customers

if company doing well, why reduce dividend? (from Kshs 0.8 per share in 2007 to 0.2 in 2008) Chairman said at the time of the decision, they actually intended to pay no dividend since the outlook was so grim (and wanted to conserve cash), but since they got some contracts, decided to make a modest payment

does low share cap hinder borrowing?no it does not, their borrowing is quite low considering the value of the company’s assets and which bankers look at more. Their facilities are up fro renewal next month, but don’t expect any hitches

how much are contingent liabilities? (no figure was indicated) chairman said they would be mostly for industrial claims covered by workmen compensation and there were no material claims of substance

no logo/signature by directors & auditors in the published accounts Chairman assured shareholders that they had been signed and the auditors had signed and the accounts could be verified a their office or the company registry (Chami got his act together and asked this, he was later brushed aside by another shareholder when he kept hammering this trivial point)

subsidiaries part of profit came from fair value gain (a book profit, not actual profit) as well as from revaluation of biological assets

does having a golf course add value to the company? Chairman took a moment do correct a misunderstanding that is occasionally repeated in media and the company Rea Vipingo is not the developing real estate or golf courses in Vipingo, Kwale (Coast Province) it is being done by another company adjacent to the sisal estate (and while they were all part of the original sisal estate – the land that was not suited for sisal production (sandy beach) is being used by the other company)

what does company do for CSR? Company engages in corporate social responsibility – staff are housed at sisal estates in Kenya and Tanzania and receive medical care while children are schooled in nursery and primary school on estate, with some getting scholarships to high school . they have in the past been involved in famine relief and distribution in Makueni district, but in 2009 the government has not requested their assistance

dry season affect sisal? sisal is drought resistant, but prolonged dry season can affect production

bank borrowing chairman was asked, but explained they had take some foreign loans, and one from a supplier (Wigglesworth) since they were a lower rates than bank loans

director elections after 12 years of service director Musa Sang retired from the company board during the year and he was replaced by Brown Ondego (chairman of rift valley railways, and former MD of Kenya ports authority). shareholders confirmed his election, but also (again) asked to consider getting (i) female directors and (ii) younger directors (these will being new skill like ICT to c company which did not have a website till a few years ago)

hot button moment director allowances in asking the shareholders to approve non-executive directors remuneration for 2009, the chairman mention that they will rise by 10% - from Kshs 30,000 per month to Kshs 33,000 per month (~$400). Some shareholder briefly protested that their dividend was being cut while directors get paid more, and that the directors’ increase should also wait till the economy and company’s performance improved. The board poorly defended this matter, but it was passed without much interruption

special business shareholders approved the board decision to purchase an additional 330 hectares for sisal production from vipingo estates limited (VEL)

goodies one shareholder stood and complained that the company had NEVER given shareholders a token item of appreciation, unlike other companies, and the chairman said they would once, performance improves. Tea and snacks were served outside by the pool, but it was a mad scramble that left many unhappy as the bitings were finished by the early grabber

networking had a nice chat with Coldtusker and Ryan Shen Hoover while this was going on

Equity Bank 2009 AGM

Equity Bank 2009 AGM (it’s 5th) was held at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre on Thursday March 26. This capped another year of spectacular performance by the bank during an otherwise difficult 2008 US$1 = Kshs 80



Start on time? Last Equity forum was 45 min late: this one was scheduled to start at 10 a.m. and was late by about the same delay. Last time we were entertained by an entire Boney M album, this time it was a series of advertisements for the bank, with a patriotic them recalling images of tourist splendor (majestic Mara), agricultural potential and athletic achievements (Kipchoge Keino, safari rally, safari sevens rugby) all ending with the line we are proud to be Kenyan

The main speakers of the day were Peter Munga (Chairman – Chair), James Mwangi CEO and Mary Wamae (Company Secretary)

The Chairman took up a long time by reading his entire written speech – almost 20 minutes. He handed over to the CEO who also ran down a series of financial highlights for the year including;

- Market capitalization rose in 2008 from 54 billion to 66 billion (only NSE company whose shares appreciated in 2008 - by 3%)
- Earning per share up from 6.9 to 10.6 - and dividend per share also up 50% from 2 to 3
- Cost to income ratio unchanged at 60%, and down from almost 80 four years ago
- Helios investment (sale of 25% for 11 billion) was the smartest thing the board did – gave the bank the capital & muscle to grow. With their 19 billion capital and subordinated debt of 6 billion gave the bank 27 billion of capital (most cap bank)
- Opened 35% branches, installed 150 ATM’s

Speech also took about 20 min as he added:
- All the awards the bank won in 2008 (Euro money, Africa Investor) which were on display for good measure
- The bank is a case study at Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, IESE and Lagos

The company’s secretary also read out the report of the directors never seen that happen

Fun stuff at AGM's is always the Q&A with shareholders:

Bad blood in banking sector one shareholder commended the bank for the fight-back in his area (Machakos) where a rumors led to a run at the branch, and a team (with cash) visited to reassure residents that the bank was strong. The bad blood was attributed to competitors who are jealous of Equity’s bank success - CEO mentioned a proverb of a tress that grows taller than the forest canopy and then gets buffeted by winds from all directions. He said they can withstands such challenges because of (i) capital of almost 27 billion (ii) liquidity of almost 66% and (iii) good asset quality

Why borrow foreign funds? one shareholder asked why the bank borrowed. The lines provide long-term funds for long term lending 3-5 years). E.g. a German loan was to support investment in irrigation schemes, of which there are now 3. CEO assured the shareholders that the loans from (Dutch, French, and German institutions) were all denominated and would be repaid in Kenya shillings, cushioning the bank from exchange losses

Most generous company in Kenya one shareholder asked why the company did not publicly participate in corporate social responsibility (CSR) programs? CEO said that Equity, unlike other companies, which gave a little money with a lot of publicity, was actually the biggest corporate spender in Kenya – bigger even than the Telco’s (Safaricom?, Zain?) and gave some examples
– when they opened 4 branches in Nyanza in 2008, they donated 20,000 beehives to women’s group’s as well as 10,000 avocado seedlings –avocado’s and honey were the most promising products of the region (i.e. beehive can generate 36,000 to 48,000 annually) .
– in Eastern province, they donated sorghum seeds to the residents of Ukambani – and will partner with east African breweries (EABL) to ensure that harvest from the residents will be bough by the beer giant.
– In the education sector they sponsored 186 top performing high school student by paying their university fees at a cost of 112 million shillings
– Fanikisha loans (to women groups) has become their flagship product with over 187,000 loans, and in agriculture disbursed 70,000 new loans in 2008
This kind of CSR that Equity engages in, is not publicity, but it is actually sustainable and transform lives by giving individuals the power to generate incomes

Regional diversification Uganda was a takeover, Sudan is a green field and they will watch the growth to see which strategy is better for expansion to other African countries.
- Uganda starts operations at end of March with 30 branches (the biggest branch network in Uganda), and open another 20 this year – he said they had already increased profit by 100 in the second half of 2008 since they took over, even while doing a re-brand operation. CEO said Uganda had better growth prospects than Kenya which had a lot of negative politics
- Sudan starts in April
slip of the tongue? CEO at one point said … “...when we open in South Africa” while also mentioning looking at Rwanda and Tanzania as being next

Buy other Banks? one shareholder asked that they buy up more shares in housing finance, while another suggested they also buy up National Bank of Kenya in which the government is offloading more shares. CEO said they would do their due diligence on NBK and if they were announced as being in the running, shareholders would know soon, but if not, then there was something they did not like after their analysis of NBK (as far back as 2005, Equity have been interested in NBK). CEO mentioned that RBS of Scotland took over a bank before the economic crisis, and choked on that toxic investment that has reduced its value to a mere fraction (from $119 billion to $3 billion)

Enough bad loan provisions? these increased from 600 million to 1 billion, but was that enough one shareholder asked, considering that some of these were for Safaricom shares? CEO said they lent individual 80% for Safaricom shares with investor paying 20%, then the over-subscribed IPO allocated just 21% (which the investor paid or), and so the 1% loan was repaid in the first week

Poor bank netwoek systems one shareholder complained about the downtime of the bank’s IT systems – at branches or at ATM’s which perhaps led to people saying the bank was shaky. CEO said they have been upgrading the platform over the last few weeks and it has caused some hiccups but they would be over. Equity is now branchless, you can bank in Kenya, Uganda, and Sudan seamlessly. Also look for new branches as queues and crowds will no longer be an issue

Kenya immune from global crisis? CEO said in year 2000, Kenya economy shrunk by 2% while equity grew by 100%
- stock market dipped in 2008 as foreign investors (who constitute 70% of trading) left the NSE, but they are now coming back
- said Kenyans were being scared. there are no toxic loans in the sector. If Kenyan economy get by 2.8 in 2008 and is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2009 , and even though tourist number and export will be affected, overall we should not unnecessarily panic about... except in the capital markets

Argument against being a stock-broker one shareholder asked why they did not buy a stockbroker like NIC (bought Solid stockbrokers) and yesterday Coop bank (bought into Bob Matthews stockbroker)? CEO said that not going to happen as stockbrokers have such bad reputations and toxic assets. Equity already has a custodial license, they already employ 8 stockbrokers, and get 70% of the transactional income – so why the need to become a broker? They get the profit now, without the hassle
- said as custodian, they are the largest custodial account holder with over 50% of all CDS accounts in Kenya
- he exhorted all shareholders to transfer their shares from their stockbrokers to Equity Bank.

Shareholder votes
- first and final dividend for the year of Kshs. 3 per ordinary share of Kshs. 5
- Election of directors: Ernest nzovu was re-elected while Dr Ezekiel Alembi (of Kenyatta University) and Professor Shem migot- Adholla (former GoK dream team PS) were elected as new directors. The Chairman mentioned that Peter njeru Gachuba (Africap) and Linus Gitahi (CEO Nation media Group) had retired to make way for the new directors.

Share split
can’t be selfish when doing well
- Special Business was the share split that every ordinary share be sub-divided into ten shares
- CEO explained that shares had become too expensive at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, which made it difficult for shareholders to judge their true values. E.g. to buy minimum 100 shares of equity costs 12,700 while to buy KCB costs 1,700 and co-op just 610 shillings
- company has 10,000 shareholders and 3.5 million customers. The share split will enable more customers to become shareholders
CEO gave history of bonuses and splits
i Year 2000: share split- 1 share sub-divided into 4
ii 2004 bonus - 5 bonus shares for each one held
iii 2007 bonus - 3 bonus shares for one held
iv 2009 split - 1 share split into 10
- so if you had one share in 2000 worth 20 shillings, that share was now worth 7,500
- the register closed yesterday (march 25) and the new shares start trading on May 25
- CEO exhorted shareholders to hold on to their shares, as they could be expected to go from the current 13 (130) to 34 (340 was the previous high before the bear market)


Odd moments
- Managers and board were asked stand and bow to the shareholders
- CEO was at one time referred to as chief servant
- CEO seemed to delight in the woes of citi bank and the US banking sector
- Meeting started and closed with a positive prayer by Canon (priest) who obviously must be a shareholder too.

Goodies
Buffet snacks served outside by safari park catering staff tea/soda – with samosas, cake, fish fingers, croissants,

Summary
Nice AGM. Equity is now media savvy and the event was well attended and covered articulately by the press

Difficulties Changing Nairobi Stockbrokers

Stockbrokers are falling at the rate of almost two a year, and tales continue to abound.

The reality is that, sooner or later, you may need to change your broker and while I've had this post for over three years about how simples the process of transferring shares from one broker to another should be, the reality is very different!

Kenyan shareholders have had the option not having share certificates for a few years now. With a central depository system (CDS), you surrender your share certificates e.g 1,000 Kenya airways (KQ), and in exchange get an electronic account/statement which is updated each time you buy or sell, shares. You also get all your dividends and annual reports by mail.

Still to buy and sell shares you have to go through a stockbroker, who ideally should have the same tally as your CDS statement. Recently problems have been had with rogue brokers, who would sell share without informing clients – and clients would only find out when they got a CDS statement showing less shares than what the broker said they had. Later the frauds went even further when brokers would ensure that even CDS statements didn’t get up-to-date records of share sales.

I had to change broker for a company account this week and the reality was much more than. I had a team of people, the transfer was between two viable brokers and we were able to get all the (numerous) documents that were asked for. Yet it still involved almost a dozen trips to the office and took almost two weeks.

The steps taken included
(i)Open an new CDS account with new broker
(ii)Close old CDS account with old broker
(iii)Move shares from old to new CDS account

Documents that were asked for included
- 3 copies of Certificate of incorporation with – one stamped by old broker, one stamped by new broker, one for the CMA (all stamped by company seal)
- Memorandum & articles of association requested by new broker (was not required at old broker so copies had to be traced and photocopied)
- 3 copies of director ID or passports – stamped by old broker, stamped by new broker, one for to the CMA (all stamped by company seal)
-2 copies of form of shares being transferred one called CDS 4A and one called CDS 4B, signed by directors and stamped with company seal. One form must be stamped by old broker, one stamped by new broker
- 200 shillings ($2.50) transfer fee

Now imagine what it is like trying to reconcile accounts, reclaim investments or move from a collapsed stockbroker? Or a fraudulent one? Or one who doesn’t have motivated (paid) staff, or proper records?

Also until last year, IPO’ were considered sure winners – and people would open several accounts e.g. in the name of their mother, grandmother, cousin, maid, driver etc, all in a bid to get more shares after the fractional allocation that characterized Kengen and Safaricom IPO's, but before the price rocketed up on day one. Many CDS accounts were opened, many by new temporarily hired staff in a bid to get as many applicants in as possible during the limited (IPO’s usually 2 -3 weeks) and some rules were readily relaxed. I explained these to the new broker, but they said CMA can come and audit their files and they have to comply CMA have their hands full with collapsing or non-compliant stocbrokers!

So, finally, the new account is now open, after a very tiring two weeks, during which I confessed that it was maybe better to sell all the shares held at old stockbroker and open a new account at new stockbroker than to attempt to transfer the shares.

Kutwa Tuesday: Toxic Brokers

Toxic Brokers The US has toxic banks, Kenya has toxic stockbrokers

Discount stockbrokers was yesterday placed under statutory management. It has been technically insolvent since new managers were appointed six months ago, and given the cost and extent of their operations it’s unlikely to ever turn round.

Bob Mathews was also re-admitted at a stockbroker after injecting in new capital, but once labeled at a toxic broker no amount of rescue cash is enough to salvage an institution. Nyaga stockbrokers got a lifeline infusion of Kshs. 100 million rescue loan, which was largely paid to other brokers, but it was not enough and the firm went under too. smart investors should read the signs of a collapsing company

Capital Gains market turnaround

The Nairobi stock exchange had its best week in a long time, with a mini run led by Equity Bank up 31%, CMC up 25%, Kengen 22%, EA Cables 20%, National Bank 16%, EA Breweries 15% and Diamond Trust 12%. With no significant financial results, or economic & political news out last week, the rise remains a mystery; Was it in reaction to US markets having their best week, or realization that there was a new finance minister in charge or investors realizing that they had missed on the infrastructure bond (and the next one was not as lucrative), or was it stockbrokers making a last stand?

Insurance Losses

Pan Africa Life a relatively large company with assets of Kshs. 6 billion ($75 million) returned a pre-tax loss for 2008 of Kshs. 175 million down from a profit of 51 million in 2007, which they attribute to the unrealized loses in capital markets. If a large insurance company is in this state, what about the smaller other Kenyan insurance companies? Already standard assurance has gone under and it was not the main company in public transport sector (matatu’s) whos' claims are being blamed for its collapse.

Opportunities & Events

TED Global applications have opened for the 2009 TED Global 2009 conference. Deadline is April 3 for fellowship applications

Tujuane Mixer will be held on March 20. More details at Tujuane site and here’s a re-cap of the last mixer I attended. The event will be facilitated by Nyokabi Njuguna, Founder - Entrepreneurship and Leadership Foundation, and with a special appearance by R&B vocalist and Guitarist Harry Kimani.

Nairobi Wine Festival Get stylish and drunk is how Rafiki Kenya describes the event on Friday and Saturday (20/21 March)

Zain in Kenya

Vuka Verdict:


Zain introduced the Vuka revolutionary flat rate call package of 8 shilling per ($0.10) minute to call all other networks in October 2008. After an initial surge in customers. What do the numbers bear out?

Rough dialing

- Zain gained a million customers 3.08 million (up from 2.1 million)
- Zain lost revenue $162 million (~13 billion) down from $194 million
- Zain lost big money: Net loss was $90 million in 2008 compared to a loss of $21 million in 2006. the ~Kshs. 7.2 billion is perhaps the largest corporate loss in Kenya for a single year

Zain outlook

- The 2009 numbers should be much better as marketing costs of Zain’s Vuka were quite heavy for the last quarter of 2008 and by which time customer numbers were still growing. But with just 5% of the entire Zain group customers, Kenya may be an expensive group to manage in what they consider to be a competitive market with low revenues [Average revenue per user/ARPU was $6 (down from $7)]. Zain claims 18% market share to Safaricom’s 77% and 5% for Orange
- Zain owned 80% of the Kenyan operation, up from 70% in 2007
- If Zain can state the population of Kenya is 38.5 million (up from 37.5 in 2007), is there need for an expensive Government census which will take place later this year?

Kutwa Tuesday: From Stanchart to LPG

stories found this week

Stanchart Bank:

Smaller profit - Standard Chartered is being much maligned for being the first bank to report a profit drop in 2008 of 4% to 4.7 billion shillings. ($59 million) (Increased 29% in 07). The bank which adopted a conservative approach compared to Barclays, KCB and Equity. Stanchart had asset growth of 9% to 99 billion (13% in 07), deposits up 4% to 77 billion and loans up 10% to 43 billion in 2008. Still their shareholders will get the highest dividend of any listed bank in 2008.

Here are some other performance comparisons of the main banks that have so far reported their 2008 results.

Goes for smaller customers - In a slight about turn, Stanchart has also launched a new low cost transactional account called Hifadhi, costs 2,000 to open, no ledger fees, or ‘cash handling fees’ with e-statements you only pay for transactions you incur, though its’ not as affordable as other 'cheap' bank accounts for small earners. Going for smaller customer has been a recurrent theme in 2008 with banks, insurance and investment companies lowering the minimum subscription amount. Examples are pepea from Barclays, Toboa from Old Mutual and even the Government of Kenya which lowered the minimum investment for GoK treasury bonds to just Kshs. 50,000 (~$625)

Bank briefs
- Stanchart get back to what they are good at – big corporate deals this one for Kengen
- Gulf African launches a shariah compliant mortgage scheme
- New bank branches: First Community bank now in Malindi, Ecobank in Kisii, while Family Bank re-opened in Githurai
- Another SMS sends Equity customers into bank panic withdrawals this time in Machakos.

From the blogs

Siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya: Global economic slump aside, Nairobi’s Stock Exchange will not see a bull run until the country’s political problems are sorted out according to MainaT

The Sunday Nation broke a story of the old Embakasi airport been handed over to an unlicensed new airline, but airport analysis comes from one Coldtusker

Following in the success of the infrastructure bond (over-subscribed by 45%), the Kenya Government is offering another bond to supplement its budget deficit; this one is for 8.5 billion ($106 million). More details from Conceptadvisoryservices and the minimum investment is just 50,000 ($625).

Kenya Rugby Effects: Kenya had a wonderful run at the IRB World Cup in Dubai, and knocked out defending champions Fiji in the quarter finals. Here’s some rugby loss reactionfrom Fiji.

Elsewhere

Employees lose & lose - it’s been a bad week for employees as the Employment Act was set aside and the government shifted more of the pension burden to civil servants to contribute towards their own retirement funds.

Madaraka finalized - Madaraka Estate houses were finally sold, apparently ending a long long running saga between homeowners, the City Council and the National Housing Corporation who should really update their website.

Laptop mania - so many offers for laptops these days, new this week were
- Safaricom selling Macbook with broadband modem for 100,000 ($1,250)
- Acer A110 laptop on sale with open office for $230 - great for Kenyans new to mini laptop market
- Even my bank/broker (CFC) hawks Acer Aspire 4710 and has loans that work out to 5,500 ($70) per month

Is Grad School a Con? - Half the Sunday Nation advertisements were for colleges aiming at the recent high school graduates whose results were announced last week. Also growing are the numbers of universities and master programs, but this article argues against going to grad school to avoid the recession with the author pointing out that;

- Grad school pointlessly delays adulthood.
- PhD programs are pyramid schemes
- Business school is not going to help 90% of the people who go.
- Most jobs are better than they seem: You can learn from any job.
- Graduate school forces you to overinvest: It’s too high risk.
(found at chris blattman)

LPG Shocker - when to buy cooking gas last night. Found the cylinder, however it appears that there is now a valve that will be mandatory on all cylinders from April 2009 - it is a universal valve, that will enable consumers to buy LPG /cooking gas from any supplier e.g. Kenol., Total, NOCK - replacing cylinders from any of them, since they will now have a common head/valve. The move is supposed to break the monopoly of established companies e.g. if you had a Kenol gas cylinder, you could only replace it at Kenol when buying new gas, whereas if you wanted to switch to Shell gas, you’d have to buy a brand new cylinder.


new gas cap

The problem was that many Total stations did not have the valve. (I checked at three stations) and they all sent me to the place that has everything in Kenya - Nakumatt. Nakumatt also say they stock valves for all companies, but only had the generic caps to sell. It’s scary to use a generic caps, since there are many fires in Kenya caused by exploding/leaking cooking gas cylinders. Hope this turns out ok when April comes around and more consumers realize they have to buy caps which cost anywhere from 500 ($6.25) to 900 shillings each, another cost to the burdened urban consumer. It would also be nice if oil companies and/or the Government conducted some consumer awareness about this matter, not leaving it to Nakumatt and untrained Petrol attendants.

Kenya Bank Charges

Late in February 2009, the Central Bank of Kenya released their bank charges survey (PDF). The earlier comments after the last survey still apply mainly:

1 It’s a good read
2 Customer satisfaction/service should be measured (it’s not just about costs)
3 Savings accounts do attract charges (any pay very little interest)

Banking will probably get cheaper as banks adapt to competition from mobile companies –i.e. Safaricom M-Pesa and Zap from Zain which are becoming become mini e-wallets.

Also found was a recent article on avoidable bank charges - which were:

1 overdraft fees
2 ATM fees (that means avoid pesa point and Visa charges)
3 Minimum balance fees

E-Government Moment

E-demand Kenya High school exams results were announced this week, and the top keyword searches at the site for one day were as follows showing the demand for information online

1. 12.79% www.examscouncil.or.ke
2 6.73% bankelele
3 4.38% kcse results 2008
4 2.69% related:www.examscouncil.or.ke/searchkcseresults2007.php
5 2.36% Kenya examination council
6 1.68% examscouncil.or.ke
1.68% 2008 kcse results
1.68% http://www.examscouncil.or.ke
1.01% Kenya examinations council
1.01% examscouncil Kenya
1.01% www.examscouncil
1.01% www.examcouncil.or.ke
1.01% kcse examination results 2008
1.01% related:www.examscouncil.or.ke/
1.01% Kenya national examination council kcse results

E-possibilities: Also at the Kenya revenue authority site is this land rent checker which should enable potential buyers to investigate land claims before they buy

E-legislation the media kenya communications 2008 bill which contained several laws regulating and facilitating e-commerce is back in the news with media owners asking for certain sections to be amended. Read How was the bill passed over their protest

E-infrastructure The first of three undersea fibre cables has reached Kenya’s shores. Much is expected with promises that communications costs could be lowered by up to 90%. And other transformations through new possibilities for e-government, bandwidth, service providers, broadvand, film & video, content etc. We will see how this plays out, as all these plans and talks will now be put up to the harsh light of reality.



Also - Found at @dkobia - an E-government website I hope will come to Africa one day.

Urban Inflation Index: March 2009

Changes in the three months ago since my last review in December 2008 and also compared to February 2008, which was just over a year ago.

In 2009, oil prices and maize prices have become the national talk as scandals, shortages, and price hikes have plague these industries causing grave concern that the country could be destabilized.

With maize, a shortage of maize flour on supermarkets coupled with shady deals were highlighted in the media all leading to a motion of no confidence in Parliament against the Agriculture Minister in February 2009. it was shot down

In oil/petrol, the collapse of Triton petrol, a small politically-connected oil marketer had ripples across the industry. The firm appears to have made a big gamble and purchased and stored excessive stocks in the expectation that oil prices would remain high, but when they dropped, the firm imploded and the chief executive fled to India. It has become a monster scandal with staff losing their jobs, banks suing the government (through the oil storage and pipeline companies) and calls for another no confidence vote in Parliament, this time against the Energy Minister.

changes in the last three months

Gotten cheaper

Fuel: A Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs. 75 (~$4.2 per gallon) which is about 20% cheaper than it was 92.7 in December 2008. Shell Petroleum led the price drop, forcing other oil marketers to follow suit and probably did in Triton with their price cut in December 2008. Petrol was Kshs. 88 a year ago

Unchanged

Staple Food: Maize flour which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 96, compared to Kshs. 97 in December 2008. However it cost just Kshs. 52 a year ago

Communications: Despite the presence of two additional phone companies, the mobile price war has cooled and calls cost about Kshs. 8 (~$0.10) per minute. With Zain, the price applies across all networks, but for Safaricom it's within their network only. New companies are offering gimmicks like Yu's Kshs. 0.50 per minute (after making calls for two minuets at Kshs.7.50). However other prices, notably in data and equipment (handset prices) have dropped. Safaricom modem’s cost less than ½ their introduction price, and features like Picture messaging (SMS) now costs Kshs 3.50 ($0.04) (it was introduced at 20) a year ago Safaricom calls were also about 8 shillings per minute

More Expensive

Electricity: my bill last month is Kshs 1,800 - slightly less than the bill a year ago. However by looking at the components that make up the bill - fixed charge is Kshs. 240 (was 175 a year ago), fuel cost adjustment is 427c per kwh (was 199c a year ago), forex adjustment was 63c per kwh (was 31c per kwh) - all causing my bill to cost about 70% higher than my approximate consumption a year ago. This is also a sore point with Kenyan manufacturers and industries who have complained (PDF) about the high tariffs even as Kenya power & lighting company announced improved profits for 2008.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 80.07, it was 79.08 in December 2008. Remittances to Kenya which have dropped every month since October 2008, are partly to blame. US$1 was 70.7 shillings a year ago

Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 130 ($1.60) up from Kshs. 120 in December 2008. East African Breweries, Kenya's leading brewer, has complained about high input costs and new taxation, and for once their share price is almost as cheap as the recommended retail price of their main seller - a bottle of Tusker beer was 120 a year ago

Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at 165, it was Kshs. 160 last December. 150 a year ago

EDIT: Also, more expensive is Housing - the rent was hiked 40% in January 2009; however that’s still about ½ what I’d be comfortable paying for a mortgage in the neighborhood.

KCB Dodges Triton Bullet?

Kenya Commercial Bank released their 2008 financial results over the weekend.

No. 1 but… KCB is now Kenya’s largest bank by bank assets and group assets, though Barclays still has a much larger book of loans and deposits, as well as higher profits.

Also with less than half the assets, Equity may be more profitable than KCB by 2010 if its exponential growth continues.

KCB assets were up 56% and profits 40%, with deposits up 28% and loans up 40% compared to 2007. 2008 was a balanced year for the bank actually performed quite well in Q4.

IPO Killer KCB has effectively delivered the final nail in the coffin of the Kenya Pipeline IPO by suing the corporation for almost $14 million of missing oil. The bank is also leading the case against Triton.

KCB beats expectations A January 2009 analysis by African Alliance pegged a Kshs. 2 billion hit to KCB profit and a pre-tax profit for the bank of Kshs. 2.2 billion - yet KCB managed to report a pre-tax profit of Kshs. 5.3 billion. AA also had an overweight recommendation with a price target of Kshs. 28.85 (at the time KCB was 21) and it looks very attractive at Kshs. 15.5 today.

Q4 watch In the September to December 2008 period deposits were up by 9% and loans by 4% - compared to Q1 loans which were up 4% and deposits 17%. KCB also built up quite a huge cash position with 39 billion (~$500 million) in bank placements at the end of the year.

2009 watch This year the bank has announced, a surprising decision to extend real estate finance to estate developers t the tune of Kshs 250 million (~$3.1 million each) and is also one of the few banks to continue offering personal loans in a very public way with media advertisements

More Nairobist analysis on KCB and KCB and Triton