Capitalization in Bank Mergers

Today should see the announcement of a merger between Southern Credit and Equatorial Commercial (ECB) banks.

They are both yet to release their full year results for 2009, (have until Thursday) but this will likely be a loss year for Southern (Kshs. - 145m in 9 months) ahead of the combination of the 32nd (Southern) and 35th (equatorial) ranked banks in Kenya with combined assets of about Kshs. 9.3 billion ($120 million) - but which were not growing as fast as their smaller peers in the competitive Kenyan market with 44 commercial banks.

The Nairobi Star today reports that the reason for the merger as the need for Southern Credit to raise their capital to the Kshs 1 billion mark after a deal with foreign investors had fallen through and this amount will be the combined capital size of both banks. The article further describes this as a takeover of Southern - a bank with structures but no capital by ECB - which is a bank with capital but no structures

Elsewhere, in the Market Whisperer [offline] column of last week’s East African newspaper shoots down the justification behind a market rumour of Equity Bank’s (valued at $787 million) interest in acquiring National Bank of Kenya (valued at $133 million) as two over-capitalized banks who don’t need each other.

It notes that NBK which was restructured by the Kenya Government is in essence still a government banker beholden to government securities which account for majority of its income, rather than traditional lending while Equity is struggling to lend out its huge capital infusion and already has a (much) larger distribution and product range than NBK.

Kutwa Tuesday: December 31 2008

1. Yes it’s Wednesday
2. this is the final post for 2008
3. Happy New Year
4. Welcome first time readers searching online for primary school exam (KCPE) results. This is a blog on finance and investment issues in Kenya mainly
5. stories you may have missed in December 2008

- National Oil Corporation NOCK will borrow $65 million from French Bank PNB Paribas
- Triton Petrol (now under receivership) has left several local and international banks exposed to bad loans. They were also partners of Reliance (India) in the second national Operator contract
- From January 2009 Kenyans can buy government bonds and bills for just Kshs. 100,000 (~$1,300) through the Central bank of Kenya. The next bill auctions are on 5th January for bills while bond are on 26th January. one must open a CDS account with the CBK (currently they hold 4,222 accounts that trade in GoK securities) more details here
- The CBK also released a report on commercial banks readiness and compliances with Basel II requirements
- New branches Banks opening new branches in December were National bank of Kenya (Kakamega, Eldoret airport, Embu, Ongata rongai), Bank of Baroda (Nakuru) and CFC Stanbic (Kisumu, Westlands – Westgate)
- Dyer & Blair Investment Bank will arrange a fund raising plan for TransCentury, one of Kenya’s leading Private Equity firms
- Standard Chartered expected to roll out a mobile banking platform in 2009 in Kenya for funds transfer, utility payments etc. (already operational in Uganda)
- Uchumi made a payment to debenture holders in December, can it re-list at the Nairobi stock exchange in 2009?
- Co-Op Bank shares began trading at the NSE – but mini bounce on day one was not sustainable

from the blogs
- Kshs. 2.5 billion worth of Equity shares trade hands in a surprisingtrade yesterday
- NIC Kenya’s leader in asset finance, but more retail and corporate has ventured into Tanzania acquiring 51% of S&F Bank - more here
- Want to buy goods online, but you don’t have a credit card – read up on Afripay - a local company that offers that service in Nairobi
- Why is it so hard for foreign (German) companies to invest in Tanzania?
- While Pirate terrorize the east African Coastline, what should be Kenya’s flagship navy vessel is rotting away in Europe.

Co-Op IPO Aftermath

A formal statement is out today after Monday's press conference where the bank’s management revealed that through their 2008 IPO, Co-op Bank had raised Kshs. 5.4 billion (~$77 million) but short of a revised target of Kshs 6.7 billion as 66,576 shareholders bought 546 million shares. The Business Dailyreports the shares will be allocated 60% to individual investors (340.5 million shares) , 30% to institutions (171 m shares ) and staff will get 9% (52.6 m shares)

Capital raising: the offer was not underwritten (by D&B winner - best lead transaction advisor and best investment bank), but despite the shortfall, what was raised should be enough for a few years. Co-op’s capital adequacy goes from 9% to about 18%, which is not bad [10 billion would have taken to this to 22%]

Other banks that have been reported to have engaged in recent private capital raising include K-Rep and Southern Credit while others who may need to tap shareholders next year could Chase, CBA, CFC Stanbic and even KCB (for the third time in five years?)

Glass Half Full: Though Co-op had initially set out to raise Kshs 10 billion, their listing came at a tough time and was not received as enthusiastically as past IPO’s. Still it had some positives but came in a tough market before the target was revised down, but has some positives

- For the bank: 66,000 shareholders is a manageable register , and since they did a lot of the placement and receiving work in house, the IPO was not as costly as others (budgeted at Kshs. 248 million)
- For new shareholders: no refunds to queue for, and for once a 100% allocation
- For other serious investors, a brief return to sanity as the IPO speculators with their borrowed funds kept away – Co-op was the fall guy that injected some reality back into IPO process and share investments.

2009 IPO’s: Next year could see the entry of Nakumatt supermarkets, bread maker a DPL and others from the private sector.

From the public sector (Government side) comes a series of planned privatizations a few of which could be IPO candidates to assist the Government in fund-raising:

Top of my my wish list is Kenya Pipeline, whose much improved governance saw a consortium of banks line up this month to offer the company funds for expansion (a few years ago KPC was using dubious financial intermediaries) and Kenya Wine Agencies. In addition, more shares of Kengen East African Portland Cement Company and National Bank will be sold to the public.

Other non-IPO candidates will be targeted at strategic partners [for Kenya Ports Authority- and TEAMS (submarine cable)] while private investors may be sought to invest in the sugar companies [Chemelil, Sony, Nzoia, Miwani, Muhoroni] hotels of Kenya Tourism Development Corporation, banks [Consolidated Bank, Development Bank of Kenya] and food processors [Kenya Meat Commission, New Kenya Co-operative Creameries]

KCB Back on Top

Now KCB Country: It’s been a long climb back, back but KCB will finally top the Kenyan bank rankings and will lead into 2009 on after overhauling perennial leader Barclays.


At the end of September, Barclays, led with Kshs. 173 billion in assets ($2.36 billion), even with KCB at Kshs. 172 billion [KCB group is at Kshs. 184 billion – through S&L, Uganda, Tanzania, S.Sudan subsidiaries]. But by 2010, it could be a different story. Three years ago, in September 2005, the score was Barclays 106 billion (1), KCB 70 billion (3) – and at that time Equity Bank was at Kshs. 10 billion (No. 13) – but today Equity is at Kshs. 75 billion (zooming in to No. 4)

Capital Issues
- Today is the last day for the Co-Op IPO.
- Strike out banks identified as probably going to raise capital a year ago - Kenya Commercial, Cooperative , National Bank of Kenya cabinet approved share sale, Commercial Bank of Africa, Standard Chartered, Stanbic, Investment & Mortgages got new shareholders, Barclays, Equity, and CFC/Stanbic.
- City Finance Bank shareholders voted to reduce the banks issued share capital to Kshs. 400 million down from 1.6 billion through a cancellation/change in the par value to reflect past losses. Current capital is 331 million

Who’s the Real Marshall?: Two notorious ex-bankers and Kamlesh Pattni and Ketan Somaia who have feuded for control of Marshals Limited (Tata, and formerly Peugeot franchise holders) should prepare for another encounter as the registrar General has called for a meeting in December to iron out the ownership of the company.

Bankers cheques only: If you want to visit and see wildlife in the Masai Mara Game Reserve, the Narok County Council will insist on payment of park fees by bankers cheque only from December. Since the Council collected Kshs. 573 million (~$ 8 million) in game park fees last year, is there concern that more was lost?

Fuel Fixed: The government has today gazetted petrol price margins for major towns in the country

Bank Rankings: Final Word

The final word on the banking sector comes from the 2007 bank supervision (PDF) report from the Central Bank of Kenya.

Notes:
- CBK ranks banks using CAMEL (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity); 10 banks are strong (down from 13 in 2006), 27 satisfactory, 8 are fair and none were ranked marginal or unsatisfactory. Overall the banking sector totaling 951 billion in assets (~$14 billion)is satisfactory, but with 6 large banks controlling 58% of the industry
- Increase from 575 to 740 branches (293 in Nairobi) in 2007 [all province had increase in branches led by Nairobi (54) and rift valley (46) with only central bank with a decline in branches (-2)]
- Number of deposit accounts increased by 42% to 4.7 million
- Regulatory issues tacked include disaster management, IFRS, Basel II, licensing of shariah banks
- The sector employed 21,657 in 2007 (4727 management, 3865 supervisory, 12,773 clerical, 292 other) up from 15,568 in 2006
- Some of the (97) forex bureaus flout laws such as not recording transactions, money laundering, transfer of ownership, operating parallel hawalla accounts, liquidity
- Coming up: microfinance institutions will be licensed, credit reference bureaus will become operational, capital increases expected

And where are the 4.68 million (deposit) bank accounts kept?

Bank, No. of accounts, (no of branches)
Equity 1,840,332
Cooperative 556,073 (54)
Kenya Commercial 487,667 (135)
Family Finance 465,308
Barclays 428,531 (95)
National Bank of Kenya 233,026 (34)
K-Rep 169,796 (26)
Standard Chartered 131,618 (34)
Housing Finance 45,842 (10)
Stanbic 31,906 (8)
Diamond Trust 29,589 (13)
Others are Consolidated 25,078 (12), CBA 23,657 (17), I&M 22,053 (10), NIC 21,452 (15), Fina 14,446 (7), CFC 12389 (8), Transnational 11,053 (9), and Citibank 2,927 (3)

Diamond Trust rights issue

1 ½ years ago, Diamond Trust Bank raised 735 million from shareholders, and now they are back this time targeting another 1.6 billion shillings ($24 million). NIC bank also has a rights issue on-going while that of Housing Finance has stalled temporarily.

The rapid growth of assets, loans and deposits has created a gap in capital that banks will need to fill up to maintain capital adequacy and Basel II requirements. Other banks likely to require to raise capital could include Kenya Commercial (after a previous right issue 2004), Cooperative, National Bank of Kenya, Commercial Bank of Africa, Standard Chartered, Stanbic, Investment & Mortgages, Barclays, Equity, and even the new CFC/Stanbic Bank.

Kutwa Monday

The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) seeks to extend the statutory management of Francis Thuo stockbrokers stockbrokers (by the Nairobi Stock Exchange) for another 6 months (this is due to expire on September 6)

Are we ready for Basel II
Diamond cash again?: 1 ½ years ago the bank raised 735 million shillings, and now they're back for more cash as are NIC also with a rights issue (and bonus share). These fast growing mid-size banks want to comply with Basel II by 2010 which requires that they have adequate capital to cover not just credit risks, but also market and operational risks

Mumias glazing: Mumias dressed up some bad news glazed over reduced sales (-10%), profit (-9%), and cash with the promise of a dividend and a 2 bonus shares for each held – which apparently worked as the share closed 8% up on the previous week. . Still even the Business Daily was moved to decry insider trading in Mumias and EABL shares this past week

Opportunities

Road audits: from the Kenya Roads Board for engineering firms to team with financial audit firms to audit road construction work on behalf of the government by performing technical, performance and financial audits. D/l is 24/9

Strathmore finance seminar: on Friday September 7 at the Hilton on Kenya as an emerging capital market

Jobs

Celtel: revenue assurance & fraud manager, treasury & tax manager. D/l is 7/9

Director of information & public communications of the government of Kenya. details here and d/l is 7/9

Marketing managers (3) [branding, core network, wireless] at Huawei: apply to Kenya@Huawei.com by 14/9

Editorial staff at the Nation media group: they are looking for website editors, owners of popular blogs in east Africa, sub editor with niche publications - in their 20''s and 30's. apply for positions by picking any story in the nation or east African, rewrite it and send it back to editstaff@nation.co.ke by 10/9

Popote wireless: head of sales, IT account manager, sales engineers. Apply to hr@popotewireless.co.ke 14/9

Safaricom: principal credit controller, retail center agent, sales analyst, senior marketing & planning analyst. D/l is 7/9

Governance advisor - Kenya for the World Bank - d/l is 13/9