Monday, September 15, 2008

Facing South and West

With the NSE under water, even lower than the post-election period, it may be time to look West and South for investment ideas. Not too far West, where the US where the financial tsunami is still warming up (threatening to take down Lehman and AIG today), or too far South where it will take some adjusting to Zuma time.

Here there’s some previously unthinkable debate about postponing the Coop Bank IPO and how low the fundamentaly sound (PDF) Safaricom (could) be by the December holiday period.

What’s in store in the rest of Africa?

Kenya: Unilever shareholders have till October 6 to decide if they want to get paid de-list the company.

Togo: According to the Business daily Kenyans may be able to invest in Ecobanks’ rights issue to raise $1 billion. 5 new shares can be bought for every 9 held at $0.29 (~Kshs. 20) per share, minimum 500 shares, and closes October 3

Malawi The Real Insurance Company of Malawi offering of 77.5 million shares at kwacha 2.30 (~Kshs. 1.15) per share, closes on September 19

Botswana The Funeral Services Group offering of 36 million shares at P1.00 (~Kshs. 10) per share. Closes September 22

Insular Tanzania continues to lock out foreign, deliberately including East African, investors from their market, so no thanks!

More at africanshareholder.com

Plane truth
[image: KQ 777]

Embattled Kenya Airways who are facing local strike threat and customer service issues were ranked No. 93 in Top 100 Airline survey; how did they fare against their regional peers in terms of passengers carried and revenue (euros)?

Airline, passengers carried, revenue in millions of euros
12. Emirates, 21.2 million passengers, EUR 6,801 million
27. Virgin Atlantic --
41. South African, 7.5 million pax, EUR 2,184 million
73. Egyptair 5.7 million pax, EUR 1,166 million
90. Ethiopian 2.29 million pax, EUR 583 million
93. Kenya Airways 2.8 million passengers, EUR 611 million

9 comments:

Ssembonge said...

Banks, The US will be a drag on the rest of the world. As it is, Eurozone is headed into a recession. You can be sure that emerging markets will be hit hardest especially now that there will be a flight to 'quality', i.e. developed markets including the US.

The US is sneezing and the rest of the world will catch the cold.

ka-investor said...

The Botswana Funeral Service Group offer is a funny one indeed. With the ever increasing population .... I can see how their future revenue and profit outlook is so bright!

bankelele said...

Ssembonge: Not quite, the disconnect is still there, between 1st and 3rd world and the demand for profit will continue for a while
-I'm trying to gauge the impact of the 3 stumbling giants on Kenya and so far AIG is the only one (growing insurance business, CBA owns and Blue(SA) have stakes)

ka-investor: you know its a big lucrative business in Africa, though one that is hard to adevrtise and make people queasy. still, I'd liek to see the results of Lee Funeral Home

Anonymous said...

A stock broker is going to go down if things are not taken care of soon. The internal auditor has been 'bought' little is being done to save this 'investment bank' as the directors drive range rover sports and CLK coupe!

Maishinski said...

I agree with Banks. All things being equal, Africa has the highest growth potential in nearly all sectors within the next five to ten years.

Case in point: Foreign stock flippers got more than 45% returns on safcom in 1 month. It was like a dream come true for many fund managers (usually satisfied with 4-8% per annum).

They're not gonna forget such gains in a hurry and I see them coming back for more very soon.

You can bet our political situation is under a big global microscope right now.

A bull run is an almost certainty - once they are comfortable that sufficient laws, treaties, systems and institutions are in place.

Timing is everything. Those who get in now risk the most - but have the potential for highest benefit.

Ssembonge said...

Banks, Decoupling is a myth.

Decline in trade, financing, aid/grants, remittances, tourism, etc etc will bring down emerging markets.

African economies can't stand on their own. At least, not yet.

pesa tu said...

@annon: whose the investment bank?

Daud said...

The sub prime crisis explained through a comedy sketch.It is funny but actually explains what happened.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

Maishinski said...

There's a Massive bear run at NSE. Everyone has panicked!

All counters are heading south...

What is going on????

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