Friday, August 08, 2008

Share Portfolio: August 2008


Drowning in Safaricom juice


8-8-08 is supposed to be a good luck date or something. 2008 has been a rough year for most companies since January. The Safaricom IPO was supposed to be the savior for investors, but has instead become an albatross on the Nairobi Stock Exchange

Heres’ my portfolio that has changed May 2008

The stable
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (UG)↔
Safaricom ↓

What’s changed?
In: Safaricom
Out: Express, Sameer, Total
Increase: KCB, Safaricom
Decrease: --
Dividends Paid: KCB, Stanbic, Diamond Trust, Total, Scangroup
Unexpected gains (none) /loses everything else
Outlook: Shifted focus to banking and communications, and got out of manufacturing related stocks as the political and oil shocks continue to be felt through the economy. No foreseeable changes till next quarter, but will look at Kenya Airways if it dips lower.

6 comments:

Ssembonge said...

How come you don't have Access Kenya?

Anonymous said...

zBanks..

On what time horizon are you basing your performance analysis?

Safaricom is still above 5/- just 3 months post listing...

For the other stocks is the current value igher or lower than what you purchased them for?

I guess you're looking at your portfolio's general net worth in the short term.. Beware: this is what triggers emotional decisions...

Unles you have over 1M in each stock, there's a high likelihood that your stable is still diluted. Gains in one stock will be cancelled out by losses in another.

Currency fluctuations are another factor for Stanbic. Actual realisable value could be lower than you think.

Your exposure in Financial sector looks rather bold to me... e.g. How well do you know Diamond trust/KCB/Stanbic? it's business model? Risks?

What percentage of your total investment does each stock represent? How much would you gain if a single stock doubled? If less than 100k then your strategy is not growth oriented.

You are at a crossroad between a "stability" and a "growth" strategy... Perhaps it's time to make a difficult choice!

A moderately aggressive growth strategy would probably keep a max of 3 well-researched stocks.. perhaps one for each of the 3 industries (Finance/Services/ICT)..

But you got to have thick skin to avoid panicking when everyone else panics.. and a cool head to avoid stock "fads".

Disclaimer: This is purely personal opinion - not investment advice. You assume the risk for all your actions.

Anonymous said...

Someone bought Equity at 340

Ouch!

I remember seeing some Bubble Warning on this blog.

:-)

MainaT said...

That looks like a more managable portfolio although ScanGroup just doesn't get the positive press I think it should getting given the forthcoimg increase in advertising spend as Safcom and rivals start competing for subscribers.
KCB-very good stock but supply seems to be something Kenyans can't cope with just now so it'll not rise as fast as it should be doing.

bankelele said...

Ssembonge: I have doubts about an ISP now with Safaricom data moves and TEAMS on the horizon

Anon1: portfolio is an on-going disclosure thing and to asses portfolio net worth [far less than the millions you recommend]

Anon2: bubble warning here?

MainaT: I’m happy to have fewer shares to track now, but am down 6% in 3 months, while NSE20 is down 9% and down Nasi 8%

Filipe said...

Banks,

There are some gems out there. You just have to look sometimes beyond some stocks and other cases outside local equity markets as well as alternative investments.

And again, a long term view is good. ARM has grown 600% since 2003 when I got it at 23 and it fell to 12 for 12 months before gradually gaining.

Some markets right now are doing superbly well like TZ's Tanga cement with good div payments as well as Kenya's construction Sector. Uganda has some potentials both in the Bond and equity market with stars like Bank of Baroda, New Vision, DFCU, Stanbic and Uganda clays. The Bond's in UG have int. of 11% upwards. Locally, try diversify to a group that is venturing into property.

So far, my average return despite all these has been a modest 8% this year. Nothing to boast about but the dividend including SACCO div (16k) hit a 28k for last year.

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