Monday, June 09, 2008

Safaricom @ NSE: Day 1 and Day 2

Day One
Shares Traded; 416.3 million
Value in Kenya shillings; 3.061b [Just under $50m]
Hi 13.70 [probably across the books]
Lo 6.95
[Market had 13m shares at 7 shillings on the offer at the close]
Average price 7.35.
Commentary: This is an entry rather than an exit level.

End of Day 2-Tuesday 10/06/08
Total deals 3375
Turnover 885.2 million shillings
Avg price 6.95 [closing]
High price 8.00
Low price 6.65
Last price 6.85
Shares traded 127.3 million

Rich.co.ke Commentary: It has based out at 6.65, I think. What I have noticed in Kenya is that everyone tries to get in at the bottom. So tails tend to befatter. At these levels, this is a steal on a medium term view. International Investors were heavy Sellers at around 500m shillings worth. Counterintuitively, thats a positive because they will have to own the stock [because of its market capitalisation] and will also join other Buyers, at the turnaround.

Courtesy of Aly Khan Satchu

9 comments:

31337 said...

a tad low i would think, i am no expert though. this combined with the low allocation is not good news for those who bought the shares on loan hoping for a quick kill, is it?

MainaT said...

Banks, for this week, expect the Ksh7.35 to be the highest the share will scale. Lakini once the speculators offload (imagine even FIIs were among those offloading, this is an excellent medium/long-term share to hold.
I confidently predict AK-like trajectory in price...

Ssembonge said...

This may turn out to be painful to those who took loans. I'm surprised that there was no frenzy today.

People who didnt take loans must be happy with their investments. They can afford to wait for bigger gains later on.

ka-investor said...

KCB, Mumias & Accesskenya have been displaced completely from being the biggest traders on the NSE.

Any price below ten is an entry level for medium to long term investors.

Anonymous said...

WARNING - INCOMPETENCE AND FISHY BEHAVIOR BY INVESTMENT BANKS:

- NIC (solid securities) have not trained their staff. My sell order was not keyed into the system until I personally went there and insisted that they do it while I supervise. Shoddy - at the very least. Can you imagine the potential losses if a crisis or an opportunity were to arise?

Its either sheer incompetence or there is something extremely fishy going on!!!

One of the staff at NIC capital tried to convince me to sell at 7.50 even BEFORE start of trade apparently thinking that I am an ignorant retail investor.

At CFC they tried to manipulate the price by initially limiting sell orders to 10/-. People complained and this was changed to 20/- (max). Strange considering that on day 1, there should be no limit!

Conclusion: Investment banks are manipulating the prices so that they can continue buying as QIIs - only to make a killing once they have accumulated enough.

HOW TO BEAT THEM:
- DO NOT sell for less than 20 - no matter what kind of fears your broker tries to instil in you!!!

- Do not blindly take the advise of your broker. They stand to benefit whether you gain or lose. All they want you to do is TRADE so they can make commissions from your money!

Expose the fishy / dirty behaviour of your stockboker, just like I amdoing now.

bankelele said...

31337: i think the volumes (10b shares) are so large, price could stagflate despite the turnover

MainaT: turnover is amazing , and all from big deals (QII I guess)

Ssembonge: That has been said from day one. It was shocking that NBK MD now said people should not borrow for shares (after his bank had done billions in IPO loans)

Ka-investor: pretty much, with 10 billion shares it will be that way for months. Mumias has what 500m shares?

Anon: thanks for the tips

Anonymous said...

Nobody knows where this share price is going to go because no of us can fortell the future.

What is concerning is that safaricom now constitutes 40% of the stocks on the NSE! there's no diversity either in the kenyan economy or in the stock market. This = danger.

Anonymous said...

Who is selling these huge volumes? I mean why would a 'foreign institution investor' be selling on day 2??? These are the guys who will do in the kenyan investors since they are behaving worse than the perceived retail specualtors. Why were they given shares only for them to come to Kenya and spoil the market?

Anonymous said...

Foreign investors are flipping the stock because it's not a long term investment for them!

They have factored in political uncertainty - hence even 6/= is good enough for them (20% markup).

You can thank the ODM communists and their destructive politics for that!

:-(

LinkWithin

Related Posts with Thumbnails