Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Safaricom @ NSE Day 8

Deals: 5,620
Turnover: Kshs 883.5 million [$14 million]
Average price 7.84
Closing 7.80 (no change)
High 7.90
Low 7.70
Last 7.90
Volume 112.6 million shares

Commentary: We are still below the 8 pivot, which is key. The pull back was very shallow and confirms underlying muscularity. Foreign buying and selling is now in balance. Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

All Safaricom, all the time?
Meanwhile AKS [] has a Nairobi Star column and in February this year, started a running NSE portfolio 2008 with Equity, Access Kenya, Athi River Mining, and Sasini. This week, he retired the portfolio – cashed in a 50% gain to throw everything into Safaricom!

Mainstream blogging
stuff I used to post about and need to get back after IPO rush

Meet the bloggers: The Nairobi barcamp is now set for June 21 and is shaping up to be one of the biggest ever with a packed day planned

Meet the money: Two opportunities for bloggers to meet the e-government, BPO, and Kenya ICT Board officials on 19th and 21st of June. first come, first served


Aly Khan said...


With regard to the Portfolio. Of course, diversified Portfolio theory would argue against my move, saying I was taking on far too much risk on a single Counter. So If I can explain my thinking;

1. I have a stop loss at 6.50. which is placed just below the low to date of 6.65. Hence I can lose some of my profits to date but not all.

2. Also, for at least two years now the indices have been largely flatlining, the money is to be made in stock picking. Equity versus Barclays makes my point.

3. So this is a calculated move with a stop loss.

4. I think Safaricom's fair price is 8-10, fro now. I think Folk are entirely underestimating its ability to deliver supernormal profits via the Mobile Wallet.The reduction to a 16% year on year growth rate was a preemptive and bold move. It tipped Celtel into a 600m loss and they lost 10% market share. That was a tremendous example of muscle flexing.

Finally, if you wish to track the markets you are welcome to for FREE via Do use Mozilla Firefox as your browser.

Aly-Khan Satchu

bankelele said...

Aly Khan: Thanks for the insight.

It's risky to put all eggs in one basket, but its possble that the market is saturated, esp the other NSE 'blue chips'. I'm cutting back to end up with about 4 - 5 stocks including Safcom
Q. are stop loss positions available to mwananchi investors?

Aly Khan said...

Re: Stop losses.

This is not something that is being offerred here, in any automated format. That is my stop loss, where I would sell the shares.

Its a good discipline to use though.


Maishinski said...

i.e Aly's Exit strategy.

Bank - remember, diversification is for peace of mind, not growth.

For growth - pick a few winners that you strongly believe in (plus- with strong long-term fundamentals) and make sizeable investments.

For some safety, buy little of each of the companies tracked by the NSE 20share index. Losers will cancel out winners and vise versa. So you will be safe - to a certain extent. But making quick exit wont be easy...

Diversification is good for the masses i.e. mutuial funds and people who don't want to read company annual reports - or dont know how to analyze / research their companies.

Anonymous said...

Hi all,

Huge round of thanks to aly khan for the free real-time market data!! I can't say thank you enough times.

A simple recommendation I'd make is to request on the live stream, an on-demand breakdown of orders for specific counters i.e. rows with the share amount being sold/bought, Selling/Buying price, datetime..all these broken to categories off what has been actually executed, sellers category, buyers category.

It would help one make more specific calls on buying or selling the share.

Thank you.

PS: Portfolios for many pple I know have since been dominated largely or entirely by SCOM.

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