Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Safaricom @ NSE Day 7

Deals 10,506
Turnover Kshs. 950.9 million [$14.86 million]
Average price 7.83
Closing 7.80 (-1.27%)
High 8.05
Low 7.70
Last 7.80
Volume 122 million shares

Commentary:
Slightly more defensive session ahead of 8.00 which is now the pivot. We will cross 8.00, its a question of time. Sellers will be exhausted given the turnover
- This morning: Excluding today, total share volume has been 1.2 billion shares which is 12% of the total shares sold. Shares are moving quickly from loose hands into those of medium term Investors. 8 and around is currently the clearing price for the flippers. Crossing 8 will be bullish
- Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tomorrow we break the 8 bob psychological barrier...

Next cap is 10/= to be broken next week.

So far so good. Foreign investors are flippng the stock to lock in profits (40% return is spectatuclar for these people since they are used to settling for 4-6% returns).

We kenyans know about 200-300% retursns so we are not selling.

We also know Kenyans could have bought all the 10billion shares - which means there's no adverse effect if all the foreign investors sell at the current throwaway prices!

Lets see who will be laughng loudest when the stock hits 100/= in 2012.

just what? said...

"Zambian nationals and employees of Celtel Zambia received full allocation"
thats from the business daily of today. some one made a joke of us kenyans with safaricom.

Maishinski said...

Here's some quick numbers for a company that was quite similar to Safcom.

Would someone care to fill in the Safcom values (am too busy this week)?

Market Capitalization (June 2008):
QTEL KSH 387,090,000,000
SCOM KSH 320,000,000,000

AVG SHARE PRICE :
QTEL KSH 3,500/- (wow!)
SCOM KSH 8/-

ASSETS (excluding intangibles like goodwill):
QTEL 2006 KSH 90Billion
SAFCOM 2006 KSH:

QTEL 2007 KSH 267 Billion
(aggressive acquisitions in ME and Asia)
SAFCOM 2007 KSH:

PROFITS AFTER TAX:
QTEL 2007 KSH 30Billion (Tax free)
SAFCOM 2007 KSH 19 billion (before tax)
SAFCOM 2007 KSH ? billion (after tax)

EPS:
QTEL: 16.74
SAFCOM:

MOBILE PENETRATION (GROWTH POTENTIAL)
QTEL: 127% with 35% annual growth
SAFCOM:30%

COMPETITION:
QTEL:None at the moment. Vodaphone will enter the market in 2008.

SAFCOM: Telkom, Zain, Econet and wireless providers.

MACRO INDICATORS
QATAR and Luxembourg are the wealthiest countries in the entire WORLD. Yes - far more richer than the USA.

KENYA is one of the poorest countries in the world.

My personal conclusion (not a recommendation): even 100/= for safcom is peanuts considering the growth potential.

Maishinski said...

Mobile penetration explained:
QTEL: 127% with 35% annual growth

Most people have two lines from Qtel (official POSTPAID mobile from employer and personal PREPAID mobile).

Qtel also provides fixed line services and internet (over cable, wireless and mobile).

kazee said...

@Maishinski, you only missed one figure: Number of shares floated

bankelele said...

Anon: I'm thinking long term, but a 100/= in four years? wow

just what? i hope one day African governemnts can negotiate IPO agreements for their citizens to invest in each other's listing - not just lumping all foreigners as one category.

Maishinski: wow, the posssibilities are endless. where will a $5 billion company growing at 30% a year. I'd like MJ to start steeping back from his CEO role. he is too much intwined with the company (.i.e. psychologically for investors)

Kazee; lets keep workign the numbers

Maishinski said...

QTEL Issued: Approx 110.6 Million shares

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