Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Shares I own

Disclosure: My stable as Snoop would call it

Crown Berger
Diamond Trust
Kenya Airways


Speculator said...

All seem like excellent picks:

* Express seems to be at peak. i dont think you could get more capital appreciation.

* Kenya Airways, lets wait and see though the movement is not going to be much now considering the earnings % increase (from 3.8B to 4.2B upto 31mar06 before audit) is not asmuch as last years.

* HFCK. Will definitely touch 40. see

* KCB - Will stabilise at under 170

* Uchumi - Buy more now (Sh14/15)

Mashatall said...

banks, why hold sameer at all? i have never liked anything owned by Merali, seems like he is always looking out for himself and has never enriched his shareholders in any way.
HFCK is definitely good long term, but i kinda noticed that you are more weighted on penny stocks as i would call them.
Uchumi speculative or fundamentals?
Overall you seem balanced in all sectors, wonder why you didnt buy into CFC who are your stockbrokers !!

kamujinga said...

Speculator, was that all there was to the increase in KQ's earnings? I would be sorely disappointed, unless, of course they issue a bonus. Now would be an opportune time - 10th anniversary of KQ's listing.

Agree with you on the other analysis, except on KCB. KCB is going places, I tell you. Maybe not over the next six months, but most definitely over the next three years.

Bankelele - another you may consider would be NIC. Seems undervalued based on fundamentals.

Shiroh said...

Banks i bought HFCK, then the deal went down,prices went down. HFCK declared over 300% in profit. Price goes up. And we are all happy. Lucky dude!

AS for us who have been earning for less than 1 year, accumulating shares has been heard. And worst of all, the counters are overpriced now.

Shiroh said...

Kamujinga explain the fundamentals on which Nic is undervalued

dropmyload said...

How about Unga? At 20.00 it is speculator's traget, as it is low priced, and has room to move. Brokers keep telling me to buy and wait for 25.00.

sassy said...

LOL on your disclosure -my stable!
wise pick on the shares but help me understand why Diamond trust and Sameer or is it plain diversification?
I agree with kamujinga on NIC it is undervalued.

Anonymous said...

bankelele and the rest, please advice me. Ive just started earning and wanna join the stock market. Where or how do i start. I bought Kengen, but thro the bank, not sure if i got or didnt,i will call to find out. Didnt use any broker, didnt open a CDS account as i learn from the internet i should.

please advice

Aly-Khan Satchu said...

I would be very reluctant to hold onto Kengen. Its at a p/e of 49 or thereabouts and the only reason for this is that this particular cake was sliced so fine and soon the selling pressure will become unbearable. The trade would be to go Long KPLC p/e of 10 and sell Kengen; this spread has to compress.

HFCK. Someone described the mortgage business as not satiable. If they have cleaned it up, this could run up big time.


DMX said...

I have really been wondering whether or not to buy Unga shares, it really is a penny stock and can only go up....surely.

But what is it about Express Kenya!!!! What makes this company tick????

bankelele said...

Speculator Haven: Have a feeling about Express contracts and bonus/rights issue has been promised. Can you confirm those KQ numbers and dividend if any?

Mashatall: The issue of Merali gain vs. other shareholder gain needs to be explored more. Penny stocks; if i sell a share, i try and buy two differnet cheaper ones e.g. sold some KQ at 24 and bought sameer and mumias both at 11

kamujinga: Awaiting KQ results too, but no plans to sell.

Shiroh: Hang in with HFCK - if not Transcentury, someone else wants a piece of them

dropmyload: Unga seems to have turned round

sassy: I picked Diamond trust over NIC

Anonymous: Open a CDS account - it's free and the only way to buy shares. Discuss what you want with broker, hand over cheque and ensure they deal as you ask

Aly-Khan Satchu: I hear the bears growling at Kengen

kamujinga said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
pesa tu said...

Nice to see your stable.Yes, am with u on sameer.It has a distribution network and any time it becomes too expensive to produce tyres here, they can close their plant and shift manufacturing to Egypt(COMESA).Still retaining their market share a la Cadbury's

gishungwa said...

shares am looking at our portfolio and its quite impressive was never good at these shares thing. Should ensure that the broker does as i say...maybe i need to pay attention to what is goign on in the stocks

kamujinga said...

@Shiroh, on NIC, look at two separate measures.

Firstly, p/e ratios - the ratio of the price of the share to the earnings per share. According to the bank's numbers released two weeks ago, their annualized EPS (earnings per share) was Shs 6.07 per share. There are banks in Kenya that are trading at p/es of over 20 (Stanchart is at about 24?), but let us be conservative and apply a p/e of 15. That would indicate that the share should be trading at about Shs 91.

Secondly, and even more striking, look at the book value of the bank - which is a more sensible measure for Banks. NIC shows a book value per share of about Shs 34.50 per share. That is most likely overstated, as it is with most Kenyan banks. So NIC is trading at about twice its book value. Considering that CFC is today trading at over THREE TIMES its book value, Barclays at almost FOUR TIMES its book value, there is substantial upside for NIC.

(I had made an error in my earlier post)

Cirdan said...

That's a very healthy-looking stable.

Anonymous said...

I think you should put a disclaimer that you neither associate with nor endorse comments made on your blog. Otherwise, some of the advice given here will send some Kenyans to financial hell, and they might blame bankelele for misleading them.
Just a thought :)

Kibet said...

Banks, i concur with you on HFCK. Maybe not Transcentury but either someone else will check in... am they'll just style and work on making mad profits and increasing shareholder value.

Anonymous has a point there on disclaimer. However, tracing you might not be very easy.

On Unga, u say its turned round. For the better or worse?

bankelele said...

pesa tu: another regional refugee is olympia

gishungwa: pay attention to what your broker does and check all your statements.

Cirdan: Thanks, still needs improvement

Anonymous: It goes without saying that comments here are independent views. Buyer beware!

Kibet: Unga is now run by some Amercian company (Seaboard i think), and is recently profitabe

gathinga said...

interesting to see your stable. but i feel me and u are taking a risk holding onto uchumi. we all expect them to post very bad results for the period ended June 2006. That time, it should go to 10/= or something. capital will be wiped out

Kibet said...

gathinga, i think you'll all be smiling when it starts coming back up from 10 (if at all it gets there). Things could only get better in my view

Ken said...

I would love to have a go at speculator haven for his advice on Uchumi.
You probably dont live in Nairobi.

Anonymous said...

Express Kenya is the fastest Growing company so far. It has been roumoured to be the next biggest Phenomenon after E.Cables..Just watchout!! 1000% plus is no mean achievement in anything..It has lately left the below twenty Price in a months time to Knock on 30 plus price.It is now gathering momentum and massive mop-up by Shrewed Investors inspite of the 1-10 bonus issue


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