Reading the Barclays Tea Leaves

Barclays Kenya just published their 2008 annual report; what does some interesting points about the banking sector.


Barclays Peek
- Is the second largest bank in Kenya behind KCB, but still tops in profit – with Kshs 8 billion ($100 million) before tax. Has 126 billion ($1.58 billion) in deposits, loans of 108 billion ($1.35 billion) and total assets of 168.5 billion shillings. It would probably reclaim the number one status from KCB, but KCB shareholders will next month absorb the assets of S&L, their mortgage subsidiary
- Shariah Banking Barclays launched La Riba in 2008 – and in 2008 they managed to mobilize over 2 billion in new la riba deposits to stand at 3.3 billion ($41 million) at end of year, but gave out just 19 million in loans
- Customers They have a popular Business club – with over 10,000 members some of whom were flown to Dubai, China and Holland. Barclays had 930,000 customers in 2008 (2007 was 580,000) – compared to Equity Bank’s 3.3 million customers, and 60,917 shareholder 60, 917 (up from 58,945 in 07)
- Staff cutback? Employees in 2008 reduced by 16% - as group had 5,571 at December 08 compared to 6,900 in December 07. In 06 they had 2,197 (but it appears in 2008, they shed the part time staff whose numbers reduced from 4115 to 1698)
- No thanks Agriculture. Agriculture is referred to as the backbone of Kenya’s economy7, but Barclays estimate their exposure to the sector to be just 1% of loans. Private industries account for 44%, with 10% each to manufacturing and to transport & communications sectors.
- Asset finance reduced?? Assets under financial lease decreased slightly – still at 6.1 billion
- Gloabl crisis / External Impact? a 1% or decrease in interest rates would impact profit about 5%, but there’s no impact from strength/weakness of Kenya shilling (bank only does business in Kenya)
- Directors: the three directors who were appointed at previous times are up for re-election on May 15; Brown Ondengo (2003), Jane karuku (2003), and Paul Phemngorem (1998). Barclays (UK) parent, with 68.5% of the vote, will pretty much determine who will remain or leave the board. No other shareholder has more than 1%, with the next largest being Kenya’s national social security fund (NSSF) with 2%
- Cheaper to borrow overseas than the NSE: The bank received subordinated debt in the form of a tranche of NSE listed bonds of 2 billion shillings (3,078b) repayable over 5 years – at 10.36%. They also borrowed 1.25 billion from their Barclays parent; BBK in the form of a 10 year loan at just 2.39%
- Pension Funds gloomy outlook The Barclays staff pension scheme with 44% equity investments was down 13% in value (to Kshs 7 billion), compared to a gain of 6% in 07

Bank waters

In the pool

Diving in: Another West African bank giant UBA follows Ecobank after apparently having secured a banking license to operate in Kenya. 

Treading in the shallow end: Still finding their ground are the new Islamic Banks - Gulf African and First Community that started business last year. They are likely to be the only banks that will record losses of at least Kshs. 200 million each as their new branches and staff continue to reach out and educate customers on a new way to bank. 

Had enough swimming?: 

(i) Morgan Stanley who were supposed to introduce long-term foreign investors to Kenya with a five-year window or longer, but instead brought in short term investors at the expense of the Government and othre investors who took out their profits in a week. Another lesson learnt a long way back from the IPO.

(ii) The Kenyan unit of Citi is on track to rake in profits of $50 million this year on the back of aggresive trading, but will it be enough, or will it be bled off by the parent unit? And who would buy it and its lucrative American interest-linked business portfolio?

Bank Safety Net

and other brief’s

Kenya’s deposit protection fund results are also out. They fund had about Kshs. 18 billion ($240 million) invested in government securities to protect depositors in case one of Kenya’s 45 banks collapses – and pay each account holder up to Kshs. 100,000 (~$1,333). The fund now covers account holders in the two new Shariah banks who were excluded a year ago

Lending crunch? wooing customers
- CFC/Stanbic - win out of the blue; open an account with Kshs. 10,000 and win one of 5 cruises, flat screen TV, digcam, ipods, satellite TV decoders (with subscription)
- Stanchart - take unsecured loan of Kshs. 750,000 or more and get a DVD player
- KCB – spend more than Kshs. 2,500 on your credit cards and you may win a DVD, TV, mobile phones or a holiday

Going regional Equity Bank hiring staff to work in South Sudan, while East African Development Bank is hiring staff to work in Rwanda

Mobile payments Old Mutual customers/fund investors can now pay their monthly subscriptions by M-Pesa – Safaricom’s mobile phone money transfer facility. Banks have already a ceded a significant chunk of the local the money transfer business to mobile phone, who are now expanding into investment and utility payment turf of banks.

Bank Rankings: Final Word

The final word on the banking sector comes from the 2007 bank supervision (PDF) report from the Central Bank of Kenya.

Notes:
- CBK ranks banks using CAMEL (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity); 10 banks are strong (down from 13 in 2006), 27 satisfactory, 8 are fair and none were ranked marginal or unsatisfactory. Overall the banking sector totaling 951 billion in assets (~$14 billion)is satisfactory, but with 6 large banks controlling 58% of the industry
- Increase from 575 to 740 branches (293 in Nairobi) in 2007 [all province had increase in branches led by Nairobi (54) and rift valley (46) with only central bank with a decline in branches (-2)]
- Number of deposit accounts increased by 42% to 4.7 million
- Regulatory issues tacked include disaster management, IFRS, Basel II, licensing of shariah banks
- The sector employed 21,657 in 2007 (4727 management, 3865 supervisory, 12,773 clerical, 292 other) up from 15,568 in 2006
- Some of the (97) forex bureaus flout laws such as not recording transactions, money laundering, transfer of ownership, operating parallel hawalla accounts, liquidity
- Coming up: microfinance institutions will be licensed, credit reference bureaus will become operational, capital increases expected

And where are the 4.68 million (deposit) bank accounts kept?

Bank, No. of accounts, (no of branches)
Equity 1,840,332
Cooperative 556,073 (54)
Kenya Commercial 487,667 (135)
Family Finance 465,308
Barclays 428,531 (95)
National Bank of Kenya 233,026 (34)
K-Rep 169,796 (26)
Standard Chartered 131,618 (34)
Housing Finance 45,842 (10)
Stanbic 31,906 (8)
Diamond Trust 29,589 (13)
Others are Consolidated 25,078 (12), CBA 23,657 (17), I&M 22,053 (10), NIC 21,452 (15), Fina 14,446 (7), CFC 12389 (8), Transnational 11,053 (9), and Citibank 2,927 (3)

Kenya Bank Rankings

Kenya’s banks assets and profits at June 30 2008, for the first half of the year
1. Barclays; assets Kshs. 166,702 million [$2.48 billion], (pre-tax profit of Kshs. 4,295 million [$64 million])
2. KCB; 160,230 (profit: 3,394)
3. Standard Chartered; 94,570 (2,321)
4. CFCStanbic; 78,948 (698)
5. Cooperative; 72,018 (1,664)
6. Equity; 70,102 (2,997)
7. Citibank Kenya; 59,495 (1,694)
8. Commercial Bank of Africa 44,035 (847)
9. National Bank of Kenya 43,360 (902)
10. NIC; 37,590 (650)
11. Diamond Trust; 34,262 (618)
12. Investment & Mortgages (I&M); 32,775 (767)
13. Prime; 17,088 (283)
14. Baroda; 16,070 (302)
15. Housing Finance; 12,942 (51)
16. Imperial 12,851 (350)
17. Bank of India; 10,960 (311)
18. Ecobank (formerly EABS); 9,474 (66)
19. Family Bank (formerly Family Finance); 9,278 (273)
20. Bank of Africa; 9,036 (76)
21. Fina; 8,729 (65)
22. Chase 8,497 (109)
23. K-Rep; 7,197 (4)
24. ABC 6,126 (82)
25. Habib Zurich; 5,931 (111)
26. Guardian; 5,530 (60)
27. Giro; 5,379 (67)
28. Southern Credit; 5,338 (11)
29. Development Bank (DBK); 5,165 (90)
30. Equatorial; 4,820 (46)
31. Consolidated; 4,228 (8)
32. Victoria; 3,988 (78)
33. Credit; 3,637 (53)
34. Habib Bank; 3,611 (70)
35. Fidelity; 3,590 (29)
36. Transnational; 3,224 (53)
37. Middle East; 3,106 (35)
38. Paramount Universal; 2,584 (22)
39. Gulf African; 2,529 (-138) * #
40. Oriental; 1,809 (26)
41. Dubai; 1,518 (26)
42. City Finance; assets of 522 million [$7.8 million], (profit of 11 [$164,000])
43. First Community -- (--) * #
* New bank
# Shariah bank

Same time last year had Barclays, KCB, StanChart as the top three, Co-op ahead of CFC, NBK wer 6th, CBA ahead of Citi, and Equity were 9th

Something to Do

1. Donate

Through Mama Mikes and a bloggers for Kenya initiative.



There are also other other initiatives - like Save-A-Life, Kiss FM's Jaza Lorry, the Nairobi Women’s Hospital, but beware of a revival of some NGO’s and unusual causes

2. Report Violence
Ushaidi.com is a tool for people who witness acts of violence in Kenya in these post-election times. You can report the incident that you have seen, and it will appear on a map-based view for others to see.



(3) Become a better tipper
Or, better yet, start tipping - because in Nairobi, tipping is something that we have left to tourists only.

Kenyans are woefully underpaid especially out security forces (some of whom had not been paid salaries even as they were asked to quell post-election violence) and yet they also guard our houses, million shillings cars, look after our families, serve us meals they can never afford, and never ask for more.

Many of them live in the very areas that relief initiatives are being formulated for - but just because they are not visibly suffering does not mean they don't need our help. And while many of us are at the mercy of people whose ability to take our money we can’t say NO to (taxman, church, landlord, relatives), we need to spare a moment for those less fortunate who we interact with everyday, who also have lives and families, and are more at risk after working a full day. Yet we dismiss them so quickly, if they ask or dare to look like they are about to ask for help while at work.

So even if it means paying less tax or tithe, or having one less beer in order to spread some wealth around, get to know these people better and tip them well; waiters, maids, taxi drivers, bank clerks, and especially policemen – though how this can be done without being seen as bribing them – is a delicate task to accomplish.

Banking briefs

- Kenya’s leading bank, Barclays, is the first to acknowledge a distressed loans problem resulting from the post-election violence and standoff.

- From IHI blog; tired of bank charges? Consider a shariah account since they won’t incur frivolous charges that build bank profits.

Paper banks : Is the Nigerian banking model, which Kenya is going to emulate with increased share capital and consolidations, built on sand and bilking shareholders?

Other observations
- China speaks on the Kenyan political crisis blaming the west for imposing democracy on Africa.
– Mobile phone wars continue with Celtel shockingly low rates, while market leader Safaricom won't compromise and keeps making money
– Hawkers who expected to be evicted from downtown Nairobi, on December 28, now enjoying continuing business with the political uncertainty in the air
– It’s not quite as staggering as Marion Jones or BALCO scandals, but from this month on a whole bunch of expensive, long hitting, golf equipment, widely used in Kenya,(including some Callaway, Titleist and TaylorMade), are now illegal. If caught using them you will be disqualified from a tournament or match event.
– Rapidly growing and expanding Fly540 airline taking a dig at Kenya Airways – with an advertisement that their propeller powered aircraft (ATR72) are more environment friendly than KQ's jets
– Advertisers taking down the politician billboards that littered the city
– As fuel prices pass the 90 shillings a litre, will some petrol pumps in the country be able to process the sale prices over 100 per litre (3-digits) which are around the corner?
– Where’s the prophetic prophetic Mutahi Ngunyi gone to?

Opportunities

- Kenya Airways: Head Of Marketing & Corporate Communications, In-flight Performance Manager, Load Control Officer, Head Of Is Development (IS) , Systems Administrator, Training Officer – Fares & Ticketing, Qualified Pilots, Multilingual In-Flight Attendant, Customer Service Agent
- Sales positions at KCB. download form here.
- Director of research at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. D/L is 31/1

Kutwa Tuesday: December 11

Yesterday was the day the Safaricom IPO was to start, but not a word came except from the courts. The prospectus could be out today, so there could be hope.

Still the market needs a huge outlet to drain all the excess investment liquidity in the country. So far, everything offered is oversubscribed from company placements IPO's, to corporate bonds – with the Diaspora, foreign investors, local institutional investors, fund managers, co-operatives, banks and retail investors all chasing the same investments. The latest was the Diamond Trust Bank rights which were oversubscribed by 178%

One controversial issue of Safaricom is the 5 – 10% owned by Mobitelea, which has been extensively discussed in the media and among blogs. However it would be surprising if that shareholding still existed, and surely that embarrassing matter has been sorted out by Vodafone either by swop's or other payments.

Bank developments
- Corporate rebranding at KCB at their website (formerly kcb.co.ke) is now kcbbankgroup.com - shedding the Kenyan connotation which would be a burdensome sell in the region with branches in S. Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Equity bank has received more approvals from CBK, NSE and CMA for their recent deals. In addition Helios (who are buying 25%) of the Bank have been exempted from the banking act provision that a foreign non bank cannot own shares in the country (until 2016)
- Imperial bank has ventured into Shariah banking with a product called Imani while giant Standard Chartered also considering venturing into Islamic banking.
- The Baraka Fund has taken over the country’s smallest bank – City Finance

stockbroking
- The NSE has announced that they have fully paid all Francis Thuo client claims as at November 30 2007
- CFC Bank is looking for stock agents in all provinces of the country.
–NIC Bank's takeover of Solid Investment stockbrokers has been approved by the Minister of Finance.

real estate
- Business daily looks at real estate investments in the last year and their profitability. - Regardless of who wins the election, budget deficits are a sure thing and interest rates should rise in 2008 – affecting mortgages, most of which are not at fixed rates
- New hotels: planned developments include seven coves in chumani kilifim while the Delamere farm will set up ecotourism camp at soysambu ranch

insurance:
– After insurance companies beat a retreat from insurance sector three years ago, citing fraud and the collapse of medical plans, there's a mini comeback now with First Assurance going after AAR in a partnership with the Nairobi hospital association.
– The association of Kenya insurers has announced that from next year all premiums must be paid before any cover is provided

opportunities

bottle shortage
A sign of changing trends as people seem to have forgotten that they have bottles at home. And now the bottlers want them back and are willing to pay cash for you to scrounge around the houses and surrender their empty bottles.
- beer bottles: east African breweries buying them back at 17 shillings ($0.25) per bottle and 335 sh per empty beer crate to uchumi and nakumatt supermarkets. Nakumatt will pay cash while uchumi will pay in vouchers for shopping at that store!
- soda bottles Nairobi bottlers (a coca cola franchise) is buying coke, fanta, sprite bottles (300 and 500ml) at 10 shillings each, and empty crates at 100 sh.

awards
Kenya national commission on human rights 2008 human rights & democracy awards: milele (lifetime achievement), firimbi (whistle blower), umma (public body), utumishi (police), urekebishaji (prisons), utetezi (civil society), mashinani (community based), habari (media), jitolee (business) and special category lochiel@knchr.org or bwire@knchr.org

Africa Investor : Tourism Investor Awards: Tourism Investment Programme of the Year, Sustainable Tourism Investment of the Year, Business Resort of the Year, Best Initiative in Facilitating SME Tourism Investment, Tourism Promotion Agency (TPA) of the Year, Hotel Investment of the Year, Hospitality Management Team of the Year, Tourism Investment Advisor of the Year, Business Airline of the Year, 2010 Legacy Investment of the Year, Business Travel Insurer of the Year. Deadline for the entries is 11 January 2008.

jobs
from the daily papers last week
- Chief executive; constituency development fund board
- Daystar University deputy VC finance, administration & planning. Manpower 14/12
– CEO at the troubled East African Portland cement company
- Fly 540 airline: looking for captains and first officers for ATR 72, Dash 8, Fokker F27 and BAE 146 aircraft
- KISS FM: creative writers email gm@kissfm.co.ke
- K-Rep Bank: branch managers, operations managers, advances managers, advances officers, apply by snail mail - D/L 19/12
- Kenya pipeline: helicopter pilot, senior accountant, internal auditor, senior internal auditor, senior IT officer, D/L 21/12, apply by snail mail
- Financial management analyst at the world bank - Nairobi

What about Shariah depositors?

A glance at the latest report from the deposit protection fund, omits two Shariah banks licensed this year - (Gulf African and Family Community) from the list of institutions whose deposits are protected by the deposit protection fund (DPF)

A further reading of Islamic banking indicates that such banks guarantee depositors funds - but then don't all banks do that?

New Bank; Gulf African

Gulf African Bank has been licensed and will become Kenya’s 42nd bank.

While earlier billed as a Sharia only bank, it’s hard to see how that would have been sustainable and it now appears that the bank will also be open to non-Muslims. Mainstream banks like Barclays, KCB, I&M and Dubai already have shariah complaint products.

With a 1.75 billion capital base starts off around 14th largest bank largest bank. It has advertised for top jobs over the last several months with a view to becoming a regional powerhouse backed by its wealthy shareholders.

Opportunities
most from the daily papers this week

Jobs
- Business analyst sub Saharan Africa – at BAT
- Alliance For A Green Revolution In Africa (AGRA): Director for Market Access Program, Program Officer for Market Access Program. Apply through KPMG
- Electoral commission of Kenya : returning officer, assistant returning officers, trainer of trainers (but must be over 35 years for most jobs). D/L is 2/10
- Investment Officer at the IFC - Nairobi Kenya. D/L is 8/18
- Kenya Airways: Database Architect, Head Of Corporate Security Services, Manager Materials Planning & Procurement, Team Leader Motor Transport
- Head of IT at the Nairobi stock exchange . Apply through Deloitte at esd@deloitte.co.ke (Ref HIT/09/07) by 28/9
- National Museums of Kenya: marketing/PR manager, development manager (resource mobilization). Apply to dgn@museums.or.ke
- Safaricom: M-PESA New Business Sales Officer, M-PESA New Agent Sales Officer, CRM Support analyst, M-PESA Operations Officer
- Agribusiness specialist at USAID Kenya D/L is 21/9
- USIU: senior research associate, webmaster. Apply to jobs@usiu.ac by 30/9

Real estate
- a 5 storey shopping mall in Eastleigh on sale for 150 million shillings ($2 million) from Lloyd Masika
- Have Man U star Rio Ferdinand as your neighbor by buying into this luxury complex in Uganda
- develop houses for USIU on 45acres in Athi river.