Urban Inflation Index: July 2013

There is much debate about an upcoming VAT bill and the current government budget deficit, separation of powers, and transfer of funding responsibilities to devolved governments (even as some entities like road contractors, and teaching & health unions prefer to deal with the central government. This weekend, County Governors floated a proposal for the country to hold a new referendum, which will be the 6th Kenyan public vote in 12 years, to decide on an increase in the allocation of funds to counties from the current 15% to 40%.

The  VAT Tax Bill (PDF) seems to tax everything at 16% with only a few exemptions. Exclusions from the tax will include;  

• Supplies to the red cross, emergency relief, personal goods brought in by travelers, supplies to international and regional organizations, supplies to multilateral and bilateral donors, supplies of to diplomats and governments, oil prospecting, international air travel, and bottled water makers. 
• Services in sectors like banking, insurance, education, medical, agriculture, local transport, residential, stock brokerage, sports, arts & plays, mobile airtime, and gambling. Even though they are exempted here, banks are passing on a new tax to their customers amounting to 10% per transaction while Kenya Airways management has said that the airline will shut down if the bill is passed as it will affect operations by increasing the cost of jet fuel, aircraft purchase/leasing and landing/ parking fees.
•  Petrol, Kerosene and Natural gas are exempt but only for the next 3 years.  

On to the index that compares prices to a year ago and three years ago. 

Gotten Cheaper

None really 

About the Same 

Mobile Communications:

Communication costs are largely unchanged with slight variations in promotions for voice and data usage. The big moves are in mobile and card payments with companies seeking to increase their awareness and become the preferred payment platforms for ordinary Kenyans such as by using Safaricom's Lipa Na M-pesa and Equity Bank's Beba Pay and PayPal channeles. 

More Expensive

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of (Unga) Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily, costs Kshs. 104 compared to 118, a year ago. But this is 46% more than the Kshs. 71 price of three years ago.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 200 (~$2.3) at a local pub, up from 180 last year and 160 three years ago. There have been two recent price hikes, but this may have more to do with EABL's management and procurement outlook, and the price may go up more with future taxes. 

  

Fuel: At Kshs 109.52 per litre (~$5.73/gallon), petrol prices in Nairobi are slightly cheaper than the Kshs 117.6 per litre a year ago but about 20% more than the Kshs 90.9/litre  of three years ago. Petrol, Kerosene and diesel prices are set by the government and even with the prospect of oil discovery, the major retailers are going through some turbulent times with both listed Total and Kenol reporting losses. 

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs 87.15 compared to 84.25 last June and  80.6 three years ago  in March.

Other food item: A 2 kg. Mumias Sugar pack is Kshs 250, which is up from Kshs. 237 a year ago, and Kshs 200 three years ago.

Others

Factors likely to affect the the cost of living include:

- Consumers are likely to see an electricity cost increase due to debts for generation of hydro power.

- The National Social Security Fund is proposing  a 4400% increase  in monthly contributions (for the highest earners) from Kshs 400 per month to 18,000 (~$210)

 - A new 1.5% levy on all imports was effected on July 1, to fund a future standard gauge railway between Mombasa and Kisumu. 

Nairobi Expense Account

Finally have one month of data on expenses incurred using Moneywise on the Samsung Tab and which is a really nice and easy way to record expenses and have them priced in  Kenya shillings, add categories, export data  (as a CSV) and gives a nice instant graphic that is up to date after each transaction.

The full list in of expenses summed up as in the month (ranked by money spent) was Rent 23%, Repairs 17% (Car, computer), Dining 10%, Gifts 8%, Transport 7% (KQ, taxis), Fuel 7%, 6% each to investments and to Drinks 6% (EABL), Recreation 4%, 2% each to Communications (Safaricom), Clothing, Electronics, and to Utilities, and 1% each to Newspaper and Groceries 1%.

June was an unusual month of with quite a bit spent on some major car repairs and travel (taxi and also air travel) and this took away from savings and investments.

#Team150

Real Estate Moment: TJRC, Homes Expo, Bubbles or Boom

TJRC: Two weeks ago, Kenya's Truth Justice & Reconciliation Commission handed its completed TJRC Report to the President concluding three years of work in which the committee set out to document violations of human rights, abuse of power and misuse of public office since Independence and look at solutions that may be beyond the reach of the judicial system to addresses and restore.

They collected over 42,000 statements around the country and, at 41%, land and property issues topped their list of violations, far ahead of the next four issues (extra judicial killings, serious injury, persecution, torture) combined.

Homes Expo: The Homes Expo took place in Nairobi last week and some properties and exhibitors at the Expo included:

- AMS Properties has Five Star Gardens on Mombasa road with 2 and 3 BR apartments for  Kshs 5M and 7M respectively.

- Bluebell have 3BR apartments in Kileleshwa and Westlands for Kshs 18.5M and Kshs 24.5M  respectively

- The Cullinan will be full service apartments coming up next to Casabalanca in Kilimani/Yaya area and will have 1 bedroom apartments that range from Kshs 10M for 1 bedroom to Kshs 22M for 3BR ones

-  Imara Gardens on Mombasa Road have 2 and 3BR apartments at Kshs 6.8M and Kshs 7.8M respectively.

- Legacy Apartments being sold by Hass Consult are studio, 1 and 2 BR apartments on Naivasha road (minutes from the Junction Mall ) for Kshs 3.5M, 5M and 7.25M respectively ($85,300) 

- Peony Estate by Gao Yu comprise 100 homes with apartments that cost Kshs 17 million ($200,000) and Penthouses  for Kshs 30M in Lavington

- Victoria Villas are 4 BR houses in Kisumu for Kshs 10.5M

Other

- Diani Homes have properties in Mombasa, Lamu, and Diani

- The Kenya Ministry of Lands has constructed 600 3BR apartments in Kibera - Soweto East 

- Anza and Pam Golding Properties (with an app in the android store) enable property sellers to show 360 view of their properties online for interested buyers. This eliminates an inconvenience when showing a proprty that is currently occupied by tenants

- Also at the expo were supermarkets like Tuskys and Nakumatt offering home furnishings and other companies like LG who displayed their Kshs 1.8 million 3D TV 

Banks

Financiers at the expo included

- Barclays has a 15.9% fixed rate mortgage for the first three years and maximum mortgage durations of 20 years. So a Kshs 10M ($120,841) mortgage attracts repayments of Kshs 138,000 ($1,662) per month

- CBA has 25 year mortgages in shillings, US dollars, Euros and Sterling Pounds

- Co-Op Bank has good home mortgages that range between 12.75% to 14.75%

- Family Bank has mortgages as low as Kshs 1M ($12,048)

- I&M mortgages are at 16%

- KCB give mortgages of up to 25 years for home buyers, while those for investments are up to 20 years. Real estate developers get finance for up to 2 years with 85% finance and investment groups get up to 19 years with 80% financed - all with loan rates starting from 13.5% up

- National Housing Corporation has 13% to individuals   

Standard Chartered has 14.9% mortgages and finance properties up to Kshs 100M ($1.2 million) and these are also available to expatriates and non-residents –e.g. to own a holiday or investment home

Other Real Estate Blogs

- Contrarian Kenyan advises why you should invest in REIT's (Real Estate Investment Trusts) rather than in empty plots on the highway  as they offer better liquidity and diversity, but with less bureaucracy. 

- George Adulu  looks at common dilemma of many people who are paying rent in a house, but take mortgage land to build a home by borrowing to buy a plot of land to develop at some point in the future

- He also looks at the  buy to let  prospect of buying a property to rent out for income, but notes that, with the high interest rates, it only makes sense if you put down a sizable down payment, not the 10% that mortgage companies tease with. Also  if you are thinking about a property for purely rent income, then forget about the suburbs, instead head to densely populated parts of Nairobi and other urban centers. You will be shocked to know that hose single roomed units in those multi-storied buildings in Umoja, Dandora, Kayole, Embakasi and so on have a repayment period of less than 10 years.

Other Real Estate News

- Bad Debts : The construction, building and real estate sectors topped the list of sectors with biggest loan defaults in the first quarter of the year.

- Construction Jobs: The construction sector generated new jobs at the fastest pace in the five-year period to 2012. 

- Listed Property Company? Home Afrika plans to list on the Growth Enterprise Market Segment (GEMS) at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The firm, with 128 shareholders, has projects under construction valued at over Kshs 12 billion such as Migaa (golf estate in Kiambu) Lakeview Heights (Kisumu), Llangwe (Kwale) and Kikwetu (Machakos) financed through shareholder funds and loans

- Succession:The Delamere Family is subdividing a Naivasha Estate as part of a succession plan involving grandsons of the settler farmer. 

- Unaffordable Homes: Owning a home in Kenya has become harder owing to the cost of finance. Still ccommercial banks had Kshs 122.2 billion ($1.5 billion) worth of home loans held in 19,177 accounts. (19,000 mortgages in Kenya)

EDIT

The Kenya Banker's Assocation CEO Chat series in May 2013  featured (PDF) Barclays Kenya CEO Jeremy Awori, and it focused on mortgages (PDF) 

Strathmore University has a course on Construction Project Management in June and another for Real Estate executives in July 2013.

Urban Inflation Index: March 2013

Gift from Uganda during the Kenya Supreme Court hearings

March 2013 saw the highly anticipated Kenya general election. There was a lot of uncertainty in the country, and beyond on what  impact it would have on the regional economies.

There were some familiar and ominous signs. The heavy investment the government had made in electronic vote systems failed, and it was a close race with a disputed result. However, unlike in 2008, the dispute was settled in the Kenya Supreme Court, and not in the streets. 

Ahead of all this, some Nairobians engaged in some extra shopping or stocking up which some called it panic shopping - but this was actually as prudent as shopping ahead of an approaching hurricane or storm, which may veer off at the last minute.

On to the index that compares prices to 3 months ago and a year ago.

Gotten Cheaper

N/A

About the Same

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of (Unga) Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily, costs Kshs. 105, which is down from 107 in December, but up from 97 a year ago

Other food item: A 2 kg. pack of Mumias sugar pack is Kshs 250, same as three months ago. It was 245 a year ago.

Communications: Telephone call and data rates are largely unchanged, and there have been few new mobile promotions,  with some items offered free like access to Facebook (Yu), Wikipedia (Orange), money transfer (airtel).

Fuel: Petrol prices in March were Kshs 117.6 per litre (~$6.12 per gallon) slightly higher compared to Kshs. 111.6 per litre a year ago and 112.6  last December.

Utilities/Electricity:  A pre-paid token purchase of Kshs. 500 purchase from the Kenya Power & Lighting Company (KPLC) gets about  33 units, compared to 31 a year ago. However the units are only a fraction of the bill with 4/5 of that Kshs. 500 payment going to pay for power generation debts, forex & fuel charges and even inflation. It's odd that even as heavy rains cause floods around the country, and presumably fill hydro dams,  KPLC still procures private thermal power and bills consumers for the costs.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 85.63 compared to Kshs. 86 three months ago and Kshs. 83 a year ago. The shilling did not dip much ahead of the election as many had expected.

More Expensive

 
Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 200 ($2.35) (at a local pub) up  from Kshs 180 where it has been for quite a while. The price increase was driven by local brew giant  East African Breweries that's got some debt issues.

Urban Inflation Index December 2012

Five years after the last election that derailed Kenya's image as stable economic regional powerhouse, it’s political season again with just two months to the next general election. How does the cost of living compare to a year ago and three years ago? 

Gotten cheaper

None really

About the same 

Fuel: A litre of petrol is Kshs 112.6  (~$5.96/gallon) - compared to Kshs. 124 a year ago and 83.5 three years ago. The government controlled price of petrol (as well as Diesel at 105.7 and kerosene at  86.4) somewhat  mirrors the international price of  murban crude oil ($111.8 in December 2011, and $76.1 in December 2009)  rightly shifting the discussion on price controls  to other areas like the high price of cargo transport within Kenya and the East Africa region (about the same price as shipping from Asia or Europe) and the impact on local good prices.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 180 (~$2.10)  The price of beer is more expensive than 140 3 years ago, but it seems to have stabilized with the influx of beer and other alcoholic companies capitalizing on the affluence' or consumption habits of urban Africans and  companies like Martini, Jameson, Heineken, Smirnoff, Castle and Pepsi bottling in Kenya, are now doing their own marketing, distribution and extravagant event promotions. 

Martini mixing session  at the Tribe Hotel

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily costs Kshs. 107. This compares to 113 a year ago and 83, three years ago. 

Other food item: A 2 kg. pack of Mumias sugar pack is Kshs 250. This compares to Kshs. 375 a year ago and Kshs. 200 three years ago. It’s unclear if the COMESA exemption for Kenya will continue, which limits the amount of regional sugar that can be imported at lower tax rates, but the country has attracted interest and an investment from a large Mauritius producer into a private sugar company at Kwale.

Communications: These are largely unchanged though there have been modest increases in the costs of mobile money transfers (Safaricom's M-Pesa), internet data (Orange) and call rates (Airtel, Essar) . 

At the release of Safaricom's half year results  about a month ago the company Chairman declared that there had been a recovery (end) from the damaging price wars as they recorded an increase in their half year pre-tax profits of 113% to about $135 million with M-Pesa now accounting for half their non-voice revenue. However , the Kenya government now seems intent on latching an excise tax on mobile money transfer transactions - bumping up that cost for users. 

More expensive

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 86 compared to 84 a year ago and 75.6 three years ago. This is expected to dip even further given Kenya's low exports and growing debt and deficits with new government structure. 

Outlook: 

It's likely that by the next quarterly review, Kenya will have had a successful general election with a clear winner or be facing international sanctions for electing accused war criminals or have a close disputed election that may lead the country to disintegrate like in 2008 or be preparing for a second run-off round of Presidential elections. Regardless of these  scenarios, the next quarter will also see the country emerge with a larger, more expensive government with new levels  of administration and devolved authorities - as a result of the constitution adopted in 2010.

Nairobi’s Future Roads

Last month at the opening of the next phase of the Office Park complex,  Engineer Arasa of the Kenya Ministry of Roads gave a talk on the future of roads in Nairobi  - who's construction this year will amount to  Kshs. 153 billion (~$1.8 billion) and reach an eventual total spend of Kshs. 2 trillion over the next 15 years. 

Kileleshwa road with a cycle path

The biggest one has been the Nairobi-Thika Highway, financed by the African Development Bank but other roads  are the Eastern bypass (connecting Mombasa Rd to Thika Rd)  and the  Northern bypass (connecting Thika Rd to the Nakuru Highway)  which are being financed by the Chinese Government. There is also the  Southern bypass which is a 28KM dual carriageway road linking Mombasa Road to Kikuyu, that will be constructed at a cost of Kshs. 1.1 billion and is jointly financed by the Kenya and Chinese governments. It will have  3 flyovers (including at community, Thogoto and Dagoretti Roads) and is expected to be complete by July 2015.

There are also the missing link  roads in the west of Nairobi, being financed by the Japanese Government that will connect Ngong Rd to James Gichuru, and Gitanga Rd to Waiyaki Way - both though Kileleshwa -  and both are expected to be completed in March 2013. (Note the bulldozers at the Yaya parking now) 

Others include upgrading  Langata Rd to dual carriageway at Kshs 2.6 billion (with an underpass at Bomas junction) and, and there are also the Upper Hill Roads being done in two phases (Kshs 2 billion, financed by GoK), starting with the widening of Elgon, Kilimanjaro, Upper Hill, and Bunyala Roads to dual carriageway  by May 2014.

Bomas junction in the future

Other planned roads in the future include  converting Adams Arcade - Karen - Ngong - Bomas to four lanes (with flyovers at Dagoretti Corner and Karen shopping centre)  - between 2013 - 2016 to be financed by the Chinese Govt at an estimated cost of Kshs 15 billion. Another will convert Outer Ring Rd to dual carriageway (at a cost of Kshs 6 billion, of which 3.5 billion has been sourced from ADB) .

Some interesting point in the talk were:

• Though stats show that 47% of Nairobians walk to work, the Roads Ministry hopes the new roads will address several challenges such as unregulated public transportation, encroachment on road reserves, (past) low investment in roads, inefficient junctions and the already present traffic. They also know that more & better roads may result in more traffic e.g. Thika Road which used to handle 70,000 vehicles per day, will have 100,000 per day by the end of the year.
• Thika Road will be a toll road.
• Another missing link road may include a fly over at the City Mortuary junction.

Real Estate Moment: Ghana Cities, Old Taxes, & Pricey Mortgages

Ghana Cities: Last weekend, in Accra, the Renaissance Group launched two new cities that they plan to be the represent the future of urbanization in Ghana. The cities will be mixed-use areas where residents will live work and play and are in the same vein as Tatu City that was launched in Kenya, but which has been embroiled in a shareholder court case that has affected the pace of the project.

The concept of new cities that Renaissance is planning in Ghana, Kenya (Tatu on 2500 acres for  70,000 people),  Zambia (Roma park) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kiswishi on 6900 acres in Lubumbashi to break ground in 2012)  are based on some harsh realities; 

That African cities are fast growing (there are now 52 cities with over 1 million people), attracting rural migrants in search of employment and opportunity. There is a shortage of housing that is quality or decent, and many city  developments are unplanned. Also the infrastructure in many of these  cities is lagging  and authorities  will not be able to supply the services or utilities that residents need to have, while residents are facing ever longer commutes.

The two Ghanaian cities are King City (located 10km from Takoradi harbour in North Akase area) which will be built over 10 years in phases to house 90,000 people and Appolonia (located 30km from Accra and 20km from Tema Harbour) which will have retail and commercial developments on 2000 acres to house 88,000 people. Appolonia which is now having water & road development will break ground in 2013.

With both cities, local communities are investing their land in the deal. They are not selling, and remain as  equity partners with a stake to get a return on their undeveloped land and create employment for the youth and Renaissance team estimates that Accra itself will need another 5 - 6 cities to absorb its fast growth.

Both the cities will have high, medium, and low cost housing units and as the local mortgage continues to develop, the Renaissance team expect that most people should be able to afford homes. Ghana now has mid-market mortgages accessible over 10 years for about 80,000 Cedi’s (~$40,000 or Kshs 3.3 million).

  

Other mega real estate developments, blogs & articles 

Tips: Nahinga blogs about three real estate investing lessons from the Accra Mall project, that began in the early 1970’s namely

- (Speculate)/purchase real estate in the direction that a City can grow towards.
- Use professionals and maintain a high standard of quality.
- Have an exit strategy.
  

Garden City: The real estate sector in Nairobi is attracting more PE interest, and Actis’ portfolio includes ten institutional quality assets in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Following in that model equity firm Actis and partners including Game are to develop Garden City  which will include homes, an events arena, and the largest retail mall in East Africa. It has already attracted MassMart from South Africa and it will break ground in December 2012.

 Other Mega project opportunities

Railway prime real estate: The Kenya Railways Corporation plans to develop 385 acres of prime real estate land in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu, and is seeking investors to build hotels, residential housing, light industries and shopping malls.

Kisumu Floatel: A project is seeking investors  to establish a luxury passenger vessel as a 5-star floating hotel  on Lake Victoria that will accommodate 80 passengers.

Cautionary Tale: But sometimes mega projects can go wrong like this ghost city built by Chinese investors in Kilamba, Angola.
 

Taxation Time: The Kenya Revenue Authority has published some recent notices about taxation of rental income and other income  from real estate. While collection of value added tax (VAT of 16% ) has observed in the commercial building sector, some residential owners have ignored that, while others have not been aware that they are also supposed to pay income tax that graduates from 10% on net rent income of up to ~122,000  to 30% on all rental income over ~Kshs. 466,000 ($5,600)

There are also other treatment for non residents, partnerships, estates of deceased landlords and Kenyans living in the diaspora, as well as tax incentives available for  rental income on real estate investment trusts (REITs)  and on low income housing projects (less than $20,000).
 

Nairobi Real Estate Price Index: Hass Consult have just released their second quarter report on housing price trends.  They applauded the recent lowering of the Central Bank CBR rate (to 16.5%) as they noted that the impact of high interest rates will continue to be seen in a slow down in new building amid the high finance costs. They also noted that, while the pace of building in Nairobi is at a peak, it's still a fraction of the housing demand, and while projects are coming to fruition, new ones are not being started as people who would be buying homes are instead staying in rental properties longer

The release of the report was sponsored by The Mortgage Company, a mortgage brokerage firm who also released a mortgage rate sheet for consumer comparison and which showed I&M bank had the lowest mortgage rates of 18%, while Equity, CBA and Family Banks had the most expensive at 24%.
  

Mortgage Chat: The Kenya Bankers Association which is turning 50 this year, just re-branded and launched a new outlook and new website. One of their new outreach programs will be a weekly mychat session with a bank CEO, and in a few weeks time,  they will feature Frank Ireri, the Managing Director of Housing Finance bank, who will chat about mortgages.

<b>TV Time</b>: Finally, there will be a new TV show coming to NTV in Kenya that will be devoted to real estate and will air on Sunday afternoons in a few weeks time.

Urban Inflation Index: June 2012

The budget speech was read earlier this month and while the big news was about the tax authorities now targeting landlords (who have always been required to pay tax, but don't), there's also a draft Value Added Tax (VAT) bill that's expected to lead to some price increases including of some food items. Here's a  recap of the  2012 Kenya Budget Highlights (PDF) by financial firm Deloitte.

On to the index - comparing changes to March 2012, a year ago and three years ago.

Gotten Cheaper
 

Other food item: Sugar: A 2 kg. Mumias Sugar pack which is Kshs. 237, down from Kshs. 245 in March . It was 190 a year ago and 175 three years ago.

About the Same 

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 84.25 compared to 83 in March. Many people expect the shilling will invariably drop again due to the current account deficit the country has. Last June, the dollar exchanged at 89 and three years ago it was at 78.

Communications: Cell phone rates are relatively unchanged with mobile operators just trying to get more usage from customers. This month Safaricom sent text messages encouraging more use of facebook, twitter,  and Buni.com  & imdb.com (where you can watch TV & movie clips ).

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 180 ($2.2) (at a local pub), unchanged from three months ago. There have been no price wars despite the link new beer entrants on the market, and one newspaper wrote last week that, in order to  get more tax from beer, the government is going to adjust beer prices every three months.

Utilities:

Pre-paid electricity is about Kshs 2,500 per month which is unchanged from the last review.

LPG: Cooking gas supplies seem to have resumed stability for now, but at a price of about Kshs. 3,000 ($37)
   
More Expensive
 

Fuel: Petrol prices in Nairobi are Kshs 117.6 per litre (~$6.25 per gallon) compared to 111.6 in March and 114.9 in June. Three years ago, the price was 40% cheaper at Kshs 72.5 per litre. Niti Bhan advises that it’s important to also track the price of kerosene as that has a significant bearing on millions of households compared to petrol. Read her blog here and an interesting column that showed that cooking gas  LPG cooking gas is cheaper than kerosene (but requires a large cash investment, which is out of reach for many) 

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of (Unga) Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily, costs Ks118, up from Kshs. 97  in March 2012. A year ago it was Kshs 130 and three years ago it was 92 per bag.

Urban Inflation Index March 2012

2012 was expected to be an election year, which for Kenya are unfortunately marked by low economic growth, but this weekend, the electoral authority made an announcement that the next general elections would be held in March 2013.

A quotes from the above referenced post by Wolfgang Fengler, the World Bank's Lead Economist for the region reads;

Since 1980, Kenya’s economy grew by an average of 3.4 percent. However, in election years, the average growth rate was only 2.4 percent, and growth was even below 2 percent in four of the election years. Equally challenging has been the management of post-election dynamics. Kenya achieved a modest 2.7 percent in post-election years, and three of the last six elections were followed by low-growth, especially in 2008, when post-election violence disrupted the country’s achievements of previous years.

It's also been incredibly hot & dry in Nairobi and we all hope that the upcoming March/April rains will restore some supply balance for agriculture (food prices) and energy (hydro electricity costs)

On to the index comparing prices of basic urban commodities to three months ago, a year ago and even four years ago when the country was still dealing with the disruptive after-effects of the controversial December 2007 election.

Gotten Cheaper

Fuel: Petrol prices were reduced again last week to Kshs. 111.6 per litre (~$6.12/gallon) for Nairobi, down from Kshs 124 in December 2011. However a year ago the price was 98.8 (when the price control regime had just been introduced) and four years ago, after the election, a litre of petrol cost Kshs 87.9.

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of (Unga) Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily, costs Kshs. 97 down from Kshs 113 in December 2011. However last March it was Kshs. 80 and four years ago (Feb. 2008) it cost Kshs 52.

Other food item: Sugar: A 2 kg. Mumias Sugar pack which was Kshs. 375 in December is now Kshs 245. However a year ago it was Kshs 195, and other commodities normally bought alongside it (bread & milk) have had steady price rises this year.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 83 compared to 84 in December 2011. This is exactly where it was last March 2011 before the Kenya shillings began a (now controversial) slide to Kshs 107 against the dollar. In February 2008, the dollar was exchanged at Kshs 70.7.
About the Same

Communications: Telephone call and data rates are largely unchanged, but Safaricom announced new rates for m-pesa including a slight increase for some transfers, but they also reduced the minimum amount that can be sent, opening the way to micro-payments. Meanwhile Airtel, who have set the low call regime over the last two years, appear to have reached an about-turn moment with their Chairman calling review of that strategy.

Utilities: Pre-paid electricity is about Kshs 2,500 per month which is unchanged from the last review. I finally got a coherent explanation from a @KenyaPower employee on how you get hit with extra taxes if you buy more than a certain amount of Kwh units.

LPG: Cooking gas supplies seem to have resumed stability for now, but at a price of about Kshs. 3,000 ($37) for a 13kg cylinder, up from less than Kshs. 2,500 before. Personally, I ditched my total LPG cylinder for a Kenol one as Total petrol stations never seem to stock enough for customers.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 180 ($2.2) (at a local pub), unchanged from three months ago..but it was Kshs 120 in 2008.

More Expensive
N/A

Generally prices have come down, but life is more expensive than what it was four years ago when the last election was concluded. However there could be some slight relief in slight for urbanites as the Kenya Cabinet approved the VAT bill 2012 which removed VAT from maize, wheat flour, milk, bread and medical supplies.

Urban Inflation Index: December 2011

What a year it has been, mostly not for the better with petrol and dollar prices setting records, and accompanied by other shortages. The Kenya government started a military anti-terror expedition in Somalia, and as war expenses can drastically alter government spending budgets, it was recently decided to bring the mission to the United Nations and have them offset the war cost to some extent.

On to the index comparing prices to three three months ago and year ago!

Gotten Cheaper:
Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 84 compared to Kshs 95.6 three months ago and 80.5 a year ago. That snapshot does not capture the roller coaster quarter the shillings has hard, dropping to an unprecedented level of Kshs. 107 to the dollar (and being ranked as one of the worst performing currencies in the world) before the Government instituted an interest rate hike and cut back liquidity to the banking sector. While the shilling was in free fall, and few could explain why, a World Bank blog post revealed that Kenya's exports were (at the time) not enough to meet the country's fuel bill, (Three years ago it cost Kshs 79 /$)

Staple Food: Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2kg pack costs Kshs. 113, down from a record high of 119 in September, but still almost double the Ksh.s 69 cost in December 2010 (Three years ago it cost Kshs 97)

Other food item: Sugar : A 2 kg. Mumias pack which was Kshs. 385 in September is now 375, but still almost double the Kshs 195 of last December. In other news Kenya seems to have applied for another extension of a COMESA import cap, denying consumers the option of cheaper sugar imports to protect the largely uncompetitive local producers who have trouble ensuring adequate supply of sugar into supermarkets.

About the same:
Communications: These are largely unchanged though Safaricom announced a modest price increase by of voice call tariffs (which Orange are itching to follow) and @Kahenya says that corporate m-pesa tariffs have also been increased.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 180 ($2) (at a local pub) , unchanged from three months ago. The alcohol sector has a lot of competition now with the new brands being launched (Miller Genuine Draft) and others revived/getting new marketing pushes (Redds, White Cap Light, Heineken, Windhoek, Sierra) in a realignment of brands and owners between East African Breweries (EABL) and SAB Miller.

More Expensive
Fuel: A litre of petrol was Kshs. 124 up from 117.7 in September and 94.3 last December. Two days ago, in reaction to threats of transport operators to go on strike during Christmas week, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced the first ever price reduction since the introduction of the price control regime - and for Nairobi the cost of petrol will be Kshs 119 (~$6.2 per gallon) till January 15 2012. (Three years ago it cost Kshs 92.7)

Utilities: Pre-paid electricity is about Kshs 2,500 per month (up from the regular purchases totaling 2,000). There are rolling blackouts as seen in the ads run by the Kenya Power company, spreading the shortfall across the country.

LPG - Cooking gas has been in short supply in different parts of the country, with many sellers in Nairobi not having any stock to sell for weeks. Those that do are selling them at increased prices - e.g. cylinders that used to costs Kshs 2,500 for 13KG, are selling at between Kshs 3,200 - 5,000 if you can find them.

Real Estate Moment: Not about Syokimau

I don’t own land outright, but I know people who do and have worked on some securities that relate to land. So here are are five trends in real estate deals that drive lead to good & bad outcomes

1. Not all land deals are equal: There is greed & fraud among buyers and officials including government (county & ministry) who will approve incorrect land & building transactions, valuers who will inflate property prices, contractors who will undercut on building materials & costs etc. There can be fraud anywhere, but mostly it is with developers who will score deal after deal and move on from a controversial piece of land. A good tip is to look out for prime, but idle or under-developed land (open parking lot, cheap Mabati (iron roof) pubs & eateries) - which mean that there's probably a story there about ownership that deters those who know from investing too much in structures on the land. But such deals are the minority and should not deter people from investing in land. Note - these houses in Syokimau were being advertised at last month's homes expo at a cost Kshs. 4.8 to 9.2 million.

2. Land is finite: Land is still one of the best investments, for the simple reason that its quantity is not increasing. It’s uses are changing with generations, migration and population changes resulting in different demands for land use (e.g. forest, agricultural or rural to residential, commercial or urban) but the amount of land available is the same (the rare reclamation of land by dredging notwithstanding)

3. Banks have failed: By banks being prudent as lending institutions, this has resulted in a situation where there are very few mortgages in the country – about 20,000. This means that (i) banks have not convinced Kenyans that they are perfect partners in the construction or purchase of houses (ii) people are building out of savings, other income or unsecured loans (iii) by not using a bank for land deals, buyers & builders miss out on the professional advice that could be helpful in the land buying process.
4. Herd Mentality: Investment group, savings club, SACCO’s and other collective vehicles have been popular ways to invest in land. They have worked with, or as developers themselves to scope out, purchase, sub-divide, and sell land to their members, and other interest parties.

Buyers then flock to these developments because groups and peers who have invested convey security and more so as word spread fast via ads in the newspaper, or whispers in bars and church. While initial investors in these schemes may have been quite cautious with calculated risks, later investors will have seen the value of plots (and their entry price) triple and watched as other members put finishing touches to lovely houses that they are still dreaming of - and this can lead to a temptation to rush in without doing the usual land checks. But what if the original land deal was fraudulent? Does anyone check for the mother title or original drawings & approvals? If they took a loan or paid for professionals to assist, they may find out that the deals were not as good.

5. The Government is not Stupid or Evil: The government creates and keeps records, and the government does not issue title deeds in a casual way. Many properties are built without a title deeds or without owners having got all approvals. But the government has an institutional memory and does not forget. You won’t sell a property without clearing arrears on land or paying stamp duty.

The government also does not forget that it owns land and as Syokimau owners found out the way, the government may sit idle, but it will act when it’s convenient or necessary. Legend has it that Ugandans soldiers discovered Migingo Island when checking for insecurity points ahead of the 2006 commonwealth summit (CHOGM), and now, while KAA has tolerated the Syokimau houses for years, now that the country is at war with Somalia, the proximity of the houses to Nairobi's international airport (JKIA) may have escalated security concerns.

Real Estate Moment: Expo II, Land Bills, Timeshares

US$1 is ~ Kshs 100
A second homes took place in Nairobi over the weekend, and this came less than six months after the first in April. It seems unusual to have two expos in one year, but here's a recap of some of the housing, appliance, banks, and other companies at the expo.

Banks: There were the usual mortgage providers there including Housing Finance (whose Treasure account comes with up to 50% discount at KWS parks and 10% at Jolly Roger, Village market, Gertrude hospital) who offer finance of up to 90% at a variable mortgage rate of 14% loan.

Other banks offering up to 90% included Standard Chartered and National Bank. NBK and Barclays both give loans of up to 20 years for individuals (NBK at 13%, BBK at 14%). A recent entrant in the mortgage sector is Family Bank who also launched m-kodi, which is a way for tenants & property owners to make and process rent payments by mobile phone. CBA and Family Bank also give mortgages of up to 25 years, and for Kenyans in the diaspora, Family will give mortgages of up to 15 years for 90% property finance.

Properties Nairobi - Le Mac was introduced at the earlier expo as a 24-storey tower complex with apartments, malls, shops, offices, bank, restaurant, gym on Waiyaki Way and Mark Properties are only selling studio apartments for Kshs. 12.7 million, 1 bedrooms for Kshs. 16 and 2 bedroom apartments for Kshs. 21M
- The gateway 3BR apartments in Kileleshwa for Kshs 14.9M starting in December 2011 with 20% offer, 80% on completion from Bluebell
- Long-standing properties that have featured at a few expo's include Jacaranda Gardens on Thika Road which have 2BR for Kshs 6.6M and 3BR for Kshs 7.6M and another at Phenom Estate IV in Langata (controversially located near Wilson airport), and Sidai Village with 3BR maisonettes costing Kshs 6.5M from Chigwell Holdings

Nairobi Outskirts- Athi View on Syokimau cost Kshs. 4.8 to 9.2M are just off Mombasa Rd. (by SJR Properties), Skyline Apts,which are 3BR off Airport North Rd that cost Kshs 5.8M, and Twiga Hills in Ongata Rongai which are 3BR apts. for Kshs 6M (also have 2BR ones). Also in Kitengela, there are 1/8 acre plots from Optiven that range from Kshs 0.5M (Silver gardens) to Kshs 0.98M (Imani gardens) with immediate financing from Equity Bank.

Coast: The Baobab Development Group has been pushing fractional ownership of an upcoming property in Malindi as luxury apartments at a 'affordable' cost of Kshs 2.5 million (time share properties are new in Kenya). Also Sunset Paradise apartments (700M from Serena Beach) are selling 2BR for Kshs. 7M ($80k), and the 3 BR and 4BR are in two sizes with the larger of each costing Kshs. 10.2M ($140k) and Kshs. 11.9M ($160k) respectively.

Gated properties: News ones included Iluluwe golf estate development in Athi River, now offering an 1/8 acre is Kshs 0.95M and 1/4 acre at Kshs 1.8M and Longonot Gate which will be at the foot of Mt. Longonot and now have 200 1/2 acre plots going for Kshs 3.5 million (later 4M). Buyers will also become members of a Kingdom golf club in the gated resort city at Longonot.

Interiors, Finishes, Appliances: There was also companies like Mabati for roofing choices, Flamingo for floor tiles Solaris for water heaters, Chloride Exide for solar water systems and power backups

Elsewhere: Knight Frank, at the expo or in the newspapers, had Windsor Green in the Mbuya suburb of Kampala for sale starting from $76,800 upwards and they and are also offering 7 acres near Wilson Airport, Nairobi for Kshs 100 million.

Land Ownership: The Government of Kenya's Ministry of Lands has published draft land bills for public discussion. Matters of interest include spousal rights, pastoralist rights, partitioning, appeals processes, use of land, and notes that the land registrar shall make information in the register accessible to the public by electronic means, among many other changes.