Dr. Mark Mobius, the executive Chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments,is in Nairobi this week. He gave a talk this morning on his investment perspectives. It is especially timely considering the bear market being experience the world over and at the Nairobi Stock Exchange this year.
Some notes
- They are bargain hunters, they love cheap stocks and thus love bear markets
- Emerging markets look good for long term investors for several reasons: they are growing faster than developed countries, they have less debt, they have more reserves, inflation is coming down, they are taking up a lager share of world trade and also trading more with each other
- Bull markets are followed by bear markets which are followed by bull markets then bear......
- Bull markets last longer than bear markets, and values appreciate more during bear markets than they depreciate during bear markets. he said by their measures over the last 20 years bull markets last on average 22 months and values appreciate by 113% while bear markets on average last 6 months and values depreciate 32%
- Various FT funds are concentrated in mainly energy stocks, then banks, raw materials, communications etc.
My take: This is a time to buy Nairobi Stock Exchange Shares (NSE) , if you have the money and a long term investment perspective
12 comments:
Hi Banks. I was just chatting about mark mobius with a pal today and we had no idea he was in town. Doe she have any other speaking engagements?
Re the NSE, dip your toes with care. Its very strange we are have a recovery when an IPO is in the market.
Would be the other way round under normal circumstances.
DMX: I believe he's here the whole week. His visit is being arranged by the SA office of Franklin Templeton
MainaT: Strange two trading days as was the NSE briefing yesterday. Aren't we an emerging market?
mainat: I have argued that the co-op will be over-subscribed. Just not the levels seen in the past. After all 101% is an over-subscription.
Guys: Got me pic with mobius at an investor conference. Eat ur hearts out!
BTW, he likes emerging markets. Only he needs to deploy $10,000,000 at a shot!
Regulation is the name of the game. The public should be more interested in pushing for adequate regulation of companies including members of the Nairobi Stock Exchange.Nyaga Stock brokers, Discount securities...need I say more. I publish new proposed legislation on my site as I receive them. Please take time to peruse and let me have your comments for inclusion during discussions on the final version. Currently, you can download the full text of the Insolvency Bill 2008, the Unclaimed Assets Bill 2008, the Cabinet Ministers Bill 2008, the Companies Bill 2008, the Partnership Bill 2008, the Limited Liability Partnerships Bill 2008, the Anti Counterfeit Bill 2008, the Accountants Bill 2008, the Squatters Bill 2008 and the Reproductive Health and Rights Bill 2008. http://gregkarungo.blogspot.com
Kenya is NOT an emerging market. The emerging market economies are:
India
China
Brazil
South Africa
Banks-NSE is a frontier market. For frontier think wild west.
Wewe CT, I don't believe you've met Mark Mobious. Unless evidence can be presented.
Anonymous,
Most of the invetors from the West trust SA markets which indirectly penetrates to other african markets. Thats how Mark came to Kenta..thru SA!
Kenya is an emerging frontier market
See link:
In this map
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Developed_and_Emerging_markets.png
(Pink are developed markets, blue are emerging markets)
http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/equity/em.html
(Kenya in EFM and EFM Africa List)
A "frontier market" is a developing economy with an undeveloped equity market.
another way to describe it
Frontier markets describe the smallest, less developed, less liquid countries that make up emerging markets
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