Nairobi writer on Banking, Finance, Technology, and Investments
Mmmh-its the turn of Kenyans to join in providing supply. Who is buying though? And not all those who are buying are muppets.Then next general election, oh so and so has engaged in corruption (look how many Safcom shares they hold).
is the depreciating value of Safcom shares a factor of demand and supply only?
Well... Kenyans should start buying...
I understand why people are selling...Safcom future looks tough. Zain has just ploughed in more capital and France Telkom is gearing up for war. Safcom has admitted that at least 20% of their market share is at risk.Overall the market is bearish.The price seems to have factored in the level of uncertainty. It will take guts to weather the storm...
Am happy that its fallen thanks to what they did to the many Kenyans who applied....Me am going to buy when it hits 2 shillings...which from realiable sources it wud....since Morgan Stanley would be offloading next week so am told.....Foreigners are cutting their losses and running.....All the best guys and watch My words its going down....2 shillings in the next 4 weeks....Hope Banks can revisit this comment when it happens...
While post Safaricom IPO effects started the slide, panic among the numerous speculators who have been sucked in by the instant rags to riches fables since the KENGEN and consequent IPO's has been fueling the slide. Any willing to sell Safaricom below purchase price must be nuts.The volumes trading are thinning across the counters meaning we might be hitting the plateau. Time to buy
MainaT: there are lots of first time buyers now at 5, but when will they sell – 4,3,6? On corruption, we have forgotten mobitelea 3N: we're trying to find outColdtusker: we are buying Maishinski: Zain is scrounging and France has not started. Even with huge resources, getting people to switch from safcom will be a huge hurdle. Now unless, they push for number portability Chris Mwangi: 2/= is a bold prediction. And don’t worry - I’ll keep tracking the share price as long as I blog. And why would MS (who presumably bought in dollars at 5:50 sell at 5? The amounts are huge) JK: volumes have been consistent for a while, I believePKW: not if you take a long term view
Also note that shares of most publicly traded mobile phone companies around the world have been going down over the past few months. Have a look at China Mobile or AT&T for instance. Probably the P/E of most mobile phone companies was seen as being too high given the limited prospects for organic growth.
The reason Safaricom has not drastically shot up (or down) is because it was correctly priced unlike KenGen which was severely under-priced. How do I know this, its P/E ratio is currently at 14 and given that the market average (locally and globally) tends to be around 10-20 I'd say this is a good indication that it is not overvalued and that its price is in line with its earnings. Of course this is not the only criteria to judge a stock by but a strong brand and customer base as well as a strong balance sheet mean that the company has good fundamentals. I agree that it is not an exciting stock (i.e. it will not drastically bounce around from day to day) but in the long term it will tend to grow - provided of course the fundamentals remain as sound as they are which any sensible investor should keep monitoring. So far, I've not seen or heard anything to dissuade me that the fundamentals have changed.The price may very well keep going down as people with short-term views sell as they look for more excitement elsewhere. But as any value investor knows, boring is good. As others rush out the door looking for excitement, value investors walk in looking for peace and quiet... and growth.
Post election violence didn't help either..who would expect foreigners to have a long term look at a country that destroys itself every 5 years?Common sense really.
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