Thursday, June 19, 2008

Safaricom @ NSE Day 9

Deals 5,344
Turnover Kshs. 462.6 million ($7.34 million)
Average 7.86
Closing 7.85
High 7.90
Low 7.80
Last 7.85
Volume 58.9 million shares

Commentary: Very tight range. 8.00 remains the pivot. We are still distributing shares just below that level. Crossing 8.00 will be a bullish development. 7.50 - 7.70 is strong support. Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Because of refund cheques delay...

Proce might start going down. Tomorrow is "make or break"..

Might possibly go back to 7.50.

Anonymous said...

you have been doing a great job. wish u know how i appreciate your daily updates. God bless you abundantly

Anonymous said...

Do these MPs see themselves as gods?

Kenyans should stage a nationwide PEACEFUL demonstrations to force these Thieves (aka MPs) to pay taxes.

If the MPs refuse - then ALL kenyans should follow their leaders example and refuse to pay taxes!

inspectordanger said...

The refunds delay has contributed to the sloppiness of the pricing. Lets hope the investors won't be angered by the delay and put the refunds to the market, thus make the share prices bullish. I am a little disappointed by the after IPO bearish prices.

bankelele said...

Anon#1: I don't think retail move market as much as QII and foreign given the number of shares allocated


Anon#2: Thanks to AKS (Rich.co.ke), not me

Inspectordanger: getting messy with CBK/CMA changing horses on encashment of cheques mid-stream

Maishinski said...

Tracking Safcom on a daily basis will drive you nuts. This is not a volatile, "small-cap" stock like almost all the other NSE counters!

Best to look at the Monthly trend and focus on other Macro & Micro Economic indicators - e.g. S&P rating of Kenya; Inflation/CPI; Investor confidence; Vision 2030; New safcom products, Michael Joseph's press conference; New entrants etc?

Did you realize that MJ's comments below were completely ignored by the market:

1. Safcom would be seeking funds for expansion within Kenya (this means possible dilution of shares) and should have resulted in downward price pressure.

2. No plans to go regional for the next 24 months! On one hand - its a good thing coz they focus on their strengths and solidify their position as market leader. Cash flow risks are less and revenue is not wasted pursuing relatively unknown markets (look at loss-making Celtel, who eroneously thought Kenyans would identify with West African culture).

On the other hand Safcom growth potential is limited to Kenya for the next 24 months. Growth prospects will correlate with economic recovery and equitable wealth distribution (Rural people, who probably make up the remaining 20Million untapped population, should be able to afford Mobiles - unless of course Safcom plan to give phones out for free).

Anyway, patience is key. I am just gonna buy and hold as much as I can while it's still dirt cheap!

Like Aly Khan Sachu, I have liquidated ALL my other counters to bet on Safcom's long term prospects.

It's the only fairly priced Kenyan company that I strongly beieve in. Why waste time with others?

:-)

Anonymous said...

Like put all your eggs in one basket? I think thats a stupid idea. How you gonna benefit if other shares go up?

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