Thursday, December 21, 2006

Number’s don’t lie

People do

Whether it's - Kenya to receive 5.8 billion in military aid, government creates 500,000 jobs, NGO plans to plant 1 million trees, ILO says 352 million children are economically active, SACCO’s contribute 45% to GDP, or 30 per cent of teenagers in some Kenyan coastal areas are involved in casual sex for cash - numbers are thrown at us everyday and we absorb the numbers and take them as gospel truth. We - blogs, the media, and the public - then re-broadcast them to others as fact and they are repeated around the world.

The numbers can come from government departments, ministers, NGO’s, donors, and other leaders who use them to justify arguments, increased funding, or positions taken. One thing I remember from statistics class is that numbers can be made up to say whatever the author wants, if they are slanted in a certain way.

So, I am not saying all the numbers from a study or report are false or some opinions polls are poisoned, but in the spirit of Coldtusker’s financial gaffes we should take time and question the accuracy, motive, reason, purpose, feel good factor, or any other underlying story to the numbers.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Banks - I have not updated the list for a while... I just got tired of the constant errors!

Anyway... that way you phrased it makes it seem like I made the gaffes!
Thought I don't think that is what you meant!

Season's Greetings!

Anonymous said...

http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=88058

i read about this fund and some requirements dont make sense - why the requirement that i go to NYS for training? i could already be in possesion of an MBA, how about the ruirment that i belong to a group or start a micro finance venture?

anyway i dont expect too much from govt bureacracy

Anonymous said...

@kudrinketh
on the outsourcing issue, i dont think we can or should compete against india. i think we should try to complement india - the big indian outsourcing firms are now huge multinationals and its in their interest to diversify the locations of their services - just makes business sense in case of catastrophic falires(wars natural disater) or economic barriers - i think kenya should market itself to this firms as backup and complimentary location(competing with philipines,slovakia,dalian and south africa in this regard). besides some kenyan indians are big shareholders in some indian
outsourcing firms.

also instead of thinking only north america and europe - lets think local kenya can be the outscouring center for countries operating i africa as outsourcing is not just about finding cheap services but is becoming an established business practice. in this regard we should look at uruguay which is becoming an outsourcing hub for businesses in south america.

its all about competitive advantage.
i think inn kenya we fall in the trap of always trying to copy other peoples ideas. there is only one india, or one dubai or one hong kong
copying doesnt makes sens complementing or improving is the solution. - EPZ was a copycays solution has not worked out - now we are talking about settingup dubais in coast. except well be competing with 100 other dubai wannabes and same thing with tech outscouring well be competing with 100 other india wanna bes

Anonymous said...

numbers truly don't lie. Men do, so if you want numbers that equate the reality of Africa we better start doing the math ourselves.
Nothing less

Anonymous said...

@kudrinketh:
about the english language:
speaking better english is all relative to an american if the accent is not american it aint english and besides kenya is not
the only english spekaing country - i dont think in theis case well be competing with india - we will be competing with south africa,zimbabwe
nigeria,caribean islands. - i dont think u really undertsand the dynamics of outsourcing the people making outsourcing decision in major american companies are indians themselves - i know i have seen it with my own eyes and the relationships between this coproartions is already tight - a company doesnt wake up one morning and change the company they outsource to overnight.
labor costs:
the cost of labor in kenya is already higher than in india unless kenya stagnates i dont see how this is going to be a competitive point for kenya.
on copying:
its not about building the same mousetrap its about building a better or different mousetrap.
In the outsourcing industry india
has certain competitive advantages
that would take kenya ages to even come close. you have to come to silicon valley to realize that the people making this decision are from india or china. the indian outsorcing business is vertically integerated companies like TATA started by shipping workers to america and then moved to shipping the work to india.

Anonymous said...

The choice of an outsourcing location is based on multiple factors:
- Cost
- Reliability
- Trust (Intellectual)

Kenya needs to ensure the "safety" of peronal information. If you break "privacy laws" retribution should be swift & painful.

Anonymous said...

Anon is correct in stating the need to build LOCAL, then REGIONAL, call-center capacity asap before the S.Africans.

We need multiple providers of fibreoptic connections between all major towns. The good news is that KDN, Telkom, Safaricom among others are adding capacity.
It is easier to build a Ksm-Eld-Nbi-Msa fibrelink (KDN is doing that) than Msa-Dubai.

Kenya needs to make a concerted effort between the Public & Private sectors to produce German & Italian speakers. Thereafter French & Spanish speakers.

India can support the US & UK markets but Kenya can dominate the German market.

The French market is a N.African affair while Spanish will be a C.American affair. They have inherent advantages.

Anonymous said...

India - For all the "frustrations" with Indian call centers, they are the best value for the moment.

Accents - Accents are less pronounced in urban centers exposed to "Western" media. India has schools that teach "neutral" accents. Nevertheless, India seems to have exhausted the "urban" pool of employees.

Kenyans who grew up in Nairobi (& to a lesser extent Kisumu, Eldoret & Mombasa) might not have heavy accents. Those who had an upper-middle class education have little problem BUT this is a SMALL pool of candidates.

We know the "R" & "L" problems of the rural Kikuyus.
What about the "S" & "Sh" of your rural Luo?
Or the "K" of the Kalenjins?

The point is NOT to target any specific tribe or community BUT that it is a matter of EDUCATION & EXPOSURE.

All in all... the mass training in languages & accents needs to start NOW to support the call-centre industry in 2 years (after the fibre-optic cables whether TEAMS or EASSY are ready to go)!

Anonymous said...

@kudrinketh:
i just used silicon valley as an example so u dont have to stick that moniker to me. but iwill stil maintain thatthe outsourcing decisions are largely influenced by thebationalities of the people in those corporations.
its not by accident that the philipines and pakistan dominate the medical transcription field. even kencall look at the resumes of the guys in charge it doenst take rocket science to figure that this gusy were leveraging their inside connection to ge a head start - and that is ok.

my argument was that its not about
competing with india its about either finding profitable niches or complementing india. when a comapny outsources to wipro they outsource to wipro not to india - looks at WIPRO's locations
http://www.wipro.com/aboutus/locations.htm

countries like thailand are trying to focus on medical outsourcing. i think kenya should focus on research alot of research is being done in kenya for and by multinationals - so we should build on it and market it and build more infrastructure around it. i.e educational and facilities

Anonymous said...

in other news the war between somalia and ethiopia just started - kenya has its head buried in the sand. we have a mutual defence pact with ethiopia and eastleigh is the financial capital of somalia -- hmm

Anonymous said...

@kudrinketh:
i think we are misundertsanding each other. let me clarify. The BPO industry is dominated by india and indian multinationals - thast i not going to change anytime soon. as a matter of fact its the indian frims that are establishing BPO centers in places like china,philipines and sri lanka to take advantage of this. as a matter of prudence companies dont like to have all their work done in one place - workers go on strike,bomb threats - business has to go on. i think we should try to luresome of this BPO majors to kenya
as a secondary location.

same wy dubai is trying to become a financial hib at th end of the day they try to lure the goldma and sachs the morgan stanley to have locations there - they cant dispace new york they try to compliment it.

agina i think niches is the key - i think research(KEMRI,KARI,ICIPE etc) for one is an advantage we have. 2 media producing programmes and advertising for other african countries (i think this is being done). some american companies outsource advertising to SA coz its much cheaper.

outsourcing takes many forms we just have to find a niche for which we can dominate. but BPO as an industry itself is an will be dominated by india and indian firms.

Anonymous said...

kudri - Watcha smokin???

Medical Transcription to non-English speaking countries???

LOL...LMAO... I bet US & UK patients will love that idea!!! Oops... Don't miss the rhetoric there!

India would do just fine... heavy accents but they have the nurses, docs, medical trained staff whose SPOKEN English may leave a lot to be desired... but they got the manpower.

I would love to help you out in my own small way... but without a visionary government, there is little we can do. India lucked out with Rajiv Gandhi, Sam Pitroda & Manmohan Singh.

All we have are old, older & oldest... who make critical decisions. The idiots we are, we will elect them again!

P.S. I wish we had a Lee Kuan Yew... old but SMART...

Baltic Amber said...

This is a very interesting discussion. I have often talked about my displeasure with dealing with indian outsourcing workers (they are often rude and robotic) The filipino's are much, much better.

I think Kundriketh is on to something. He's main problem will be attracting clients and convincing them to go with his firm. A brilliant or even good idea is not enough. You need to get those clients. I'd like to hear how you plan on doing that. What's your marketing strategy going to be?

Anonymous said...

There are several outsourcing firms in Kenya. While we have a big resource pool of unemployed graduates, the government has not done much to foster a concussive business environment. Infrastructure is the biggest bottleneck.

Going forward, you will see less of the CSR outsourcing. Companies have found out the hard way that you can only outsource jobs that do not create value. Certainly customer service is the bread and butter of many firms, thus they are cutting back on sending these jobs overseas.

Check out http://www.kencall.com/about.htm

BTW, the owners are Kenyans. I vaguely remember their dad (Nesbitt Snr) who was some big shot in the private sector. Can anyone remember which companies he was associated with?

bankelele said...

Coldtusker: I didn’t mean to imply you made the gaffes, but that you pointed them out.
- Outsourcing has great potential after EASSY. To me accents are not a major problem –esp. our ladies can mimic anyone

Toiyoi: I haven’t paid much attention to the youth fund, but it’s one of those things whose numbers need to be delved into. But I think money should be a loan, not a grant, and the government should avail the funds through banks, like a line of credit. Banks are better able to administer these funds than a government ministry
- On outsourcing: Indian and Chinese firms are looking to setup up here already

Kudrinketh: affirmative action a good thing, but in Kenya that will be tough. Until the company acts are reviewed and updated, you will have 18 years olds fronting companies that will lock down huge government contracts (of course they will be shell companies)

Great opportunities in outsourcing for sure and its something that the government recognizes (http://bankelele.blogspot.com/2006/05/training-kenyans-for-outsourcing.html)
- Good luck with your venture –we are rooting for EASSY first

Africaincorp: we do a lot of the (bad) number crunching ourselves

Kenyanentrepreneur: great topic I see and I need to open a new thread. Interesting point you raise about different Asian workers. From what I have seen the industry is not a bed of roses but the economic rewards have been great for those countries

Ssembonge: the numbers of outsourcing companies are bound to increase as communication costs come down.

Anonymous said...

Banks,
You missed my point.

Outsourcing will continue to grow, however, not the outsourcing of customer services.

The Harvard Business Review had an article on outsourcing and it concluded that you only outsource functions that are least likely to affect your revenues. Cutting down expenses of valuable functions results in a decline of revenue.

So you will see the outsourcing of paper pushers rather than CS Reps.

Kenya need to focus on other areas of outsourcing other than CSR.

Anonymous said...

I think Kenya has what it takes to be a big player in outsourcing. You guys (I'm Nigerian) have the experience of tourism and what better customer service training is there than the tourist industry?

I think having indian or chinese companies come into kenya to do outsourcing is an asset as long as it benefits the Kenyan population fairly through providing jobs, training and allowing Kenyan entrepreneurs the opportunity to network and partner with these firms.

Kenyan entrepreneurs interesting in BPO should start forming networking groups so that its a win-win for all in terms of knowing what kind of technology you need, how to get clients overseas etc.

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