Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Scangroup IPO Results

Scangroup received over 100,000 applications of which 12,800 rejected, leaving 96,000 valid applicants

93,000 applications
- Those who applied for 1,000 shares have been allocated 300 shares
- 10,000 get 500
- 100,000 get 1,000
- 1 million get just 3,000 shares

2,900 applications
Who applied for up to 10,000 will get full allocations.

80 applications
Those who applied for up to 15,000 will get a full allocation.

Lesson of the day: apply as an institution if allocation has been pre-determined prior to IPO


Declining money transfers
Fewer people are using Western Union to transfer money. Despite reducing their fees earlier this year, it seems more people are using alternatives and other other methods to get around the still high costs.

Wish of the day
Be like Nepal where protesters have forced the to government to reduce fuel prices. Here, notorious Koinange Street has the highest prices and the fuel stations there are always the first to raise prices, giving an indication of how prices will soon be in the rest of the City. (From dealbreaker)

Funding for Kenyan SME’s
The European Investment Bank (EIB) will contribute US $5 million to the Business Partners International Kenya SME Fund (BPI-K) which invests between USD50,000 (Kshs. 3.75million) and USD500,000 (Kshs. 38m) in small? companies.

- The Economist catches up with Ayisi Makatiani.

- Who is the Aga Khan besides being a major shareholder through his foundation in NMG, Diamond Trust, Jubilee, Serena and numerous other private, educational and charitable initiatives in Kenya?


Anonymous said...

eeh bwana, is it april 1st? u r not serious!!!

Anonymous said...

at this rate am going for a unit trust!!! this whole business of studying the exchange daily (by first reading bankelele's blog!! D:)) and deciding for myself is crazy

mushenzi said...

Wazeiya...that SG IPO was a joke...the allocation is just funny. They should have used some more prorata-like formula like kengen! Does this mean guys who applied for minimum get zero?

mwasjd said...

Banks, your 411 source is too fast!!! Uchungu mwingi, but it's better than nothing. Any ideas on what will happen to those who bought mininum? And how does one form an institution bila much hassle?

mwasjd said...

an addition to lesson of the day: hook up with an employee?

Jakarumba said...

Everyone got a piece of the cake. I must say that its really disappointing. I applied for 6k and 4k by proxy now I end up with 600 share only because the proxy is to get her minimum of 300!

mushenzi said...

Does anyone have an idea of how the mumias sale will be done, will it be an offer at the NSE, rights issue to existing shareholders ama nini?

Anonymous said...

Mushenzi, I suppose it will be an OFS just like Equity Bank.

anon 2 said...

Do investment clubs qualify as institutions? if they do then thats the way to go to ensure full allocations.

Jakarumba said...

Anon2, as long as tey are incorporated, they do qualify.
Banks, a shortcut to local money transfer, if the recipient has a bank account, one simply deposits the money there in he/she receives on gthe other side in seconds!!

Anonymous said...

Idle thoughts: Last week Scangroup announced it has bought a 70 per cent stake in Foote Cone & Belding's TZ affiliate. It's a cash and stock deal involving (interestingly) Lowe Scanad TZ stock, not Scangroup stock.

This raises interesting questions about the companies' respective valuations and the logic of the cross-ownerships. Could the South Africans behind FCB Africa have turned up their noses at Scangroup stock? (Using overvalued stock for acquisitions is a time-honoured practice: vid AOL Time Warner) How much of this 'cash' is actually debt? Was this a non-deal timed to rally/shore up Scangroup stock when it starts trading (as opposed to a deal made possible by strong stock)?

I know too little. I'm a danger to myself!!!

coldtusker said...

Soma the bad news about the applications in the newspapers!

I have some calcs on my blog & the applicants for minimum shares got the best deal... yaani 60%

Unfortunately, for those without access to the papers, the details will be online tomorrow. I wonder why Scangroup hasn't posted this info on their website?

gathinga said...

this is a big joke. the IPO that attracted the most criticism ends up being the mostr disapointing in allocating.... those of us who have had our money there for several weeks are dis...

hopw the refundsa will come fast
banks was there an indication when?

coldtusker said...

What vocal Kenyans say is NOT what other Kenyans do!

Progressives complain about the crooks in government then re-elect them! e.g. kenyatta, moi, gumo, etc

MPs complain about Scangroup but wananchi vote with their wallets!

Political parties want constitutional reform, wananchi want crackdown on corruption!

MPs & borrowers complain about "Big Foreign Banks" but wananchi prefer them for safety (esp if your deposit exceeds 100,000/-) over local banks

bankelele said...

Anonymous: Unit Trusts not enough variety

mushenzi: Too many applications, they have no choice.

Mumias will proababbly like KCB rights, where existing shareholders will get some guarantee of allocation

Mwasjd: news is in the open now, minimum will get 300

mwasjd: Another is to open as many CDS accounts, but keeping up and making an application, payment, and refund for each is a hassle

Jakarumba: Cake too small, so we all get crumbs

coldtusker: Maybe kesho, corp websites seem to be updated last in Kenya, TV first

Gathinga; I think Kengen too more flack for their allocation, but they had many more (split) shares on offer. refunds will be at broker,bank within a week

Anonymous said...

Interesting article on makatiani.

The Aga Khan is nothing more than a welfare whore. He lives off the 10% "bribe" that his followers contribute to his organization. Members of that family have never had real jobs or worked at all.

Check out amazon for some books about that lazy family.

coldtusker said...

@Anon - The Aga Khan might have it better than most but how, pray I ask, would the 10% be a bribe?

BTW, I am not a follower of AK!
I like the Ismaili community coz they are not hardcore/fundamentalist. They even have alcohol at their hengs!

Tithing is common in Islam & Christianity. What's more the Catholics could buy "Indulgences"!

The AK family think they are royals so compare them to the others akina Elizabeth na wengine.

AK has a better organisation than most (if not all) 3rd world countries. Kenya included.

At least the Ismaili community sees the benefit of the "tax/tithe".

Wacha the individual... I like the organisational capabilities.

AK Institutions

Aga Khan Hospital - I prefer it to Nairobi Hosp coz its got better equipment & is cheaper (sina insurance). I was born at AK (Msa). I think there is one in Kisumu as well.

AK Schools - Numerous. Pretty decent facilities too. The academy in MSA is fantastic! I wish it was there in my day! Lakini couldn't afford it!

AK Firms - I am big fan! See my blog for more info!

Diamond Trust Bank
Jubilee Insurance

Even the World Bank/IMF/IFC agrees that AK firms have management depth.

Ken said...

This IPO was clearly meant for institutions. The poor mwananchi is getting 500 for a 10,000 application while the institution gets a full allocation.

IPOs are becoming frustrating. this market needs to tank so we loose some investors.

Anonymous said...


The market WILL tank. It's no longer a question of's now a question of when.

Also, large institutions always get the bulk of the shares. It happens that way in America as well. The only people in Kenya who will do well on the NSE are the brokers (they get their commissions regardless of whether or not you lose or make money)

As I've said here before, the poor mwanainchi is NOT going to get rich by buying shares on the NSE. They will come to this realization the hard way.

Also, as I've said here before...the approach you guys are taking in terms of trying to craft your "investment" strategy is not going to work. You guys are essentially trying to predict the future in an effort to try & figure out how it will affect the stock price. Nobody can predict the future. There is a better approach to investing. I will be discussing it on my blog in the next couple of days. Watch out for it.

sijui said...

Kudos!! Love this blog!!!! Ayisi Makatiani is an inspiration for all srtuggling, aspiring entrepreneurs in Africa...brilliant article!

coldtusker said...

As KE says - Don't rely on the stockmarket to make you wealthy!

Wealth creation is by entrepreneurs & investors who put the money INTO the business not "shareholders & traders".

Warren Buffett feels that generally Capital Market only benefit the intermediaries e.g. brokers & banks.

WB prefers buying COMPANIES. He does buy stocks as INVESTMENTS not as commodities.

I disagree with KE on "predictions" comment.
We all know we can't predict the future! I ain't no Nostradamus!

We need to form opinions on what we THINK will happen! If I buy a flat for rental income, I do so EXPECTING or PREDICTING the need for accomodation. I "predict" that Nairobi's population growth coupled with limited supply will enable me increase my rent annually.

Call it what you may... Forecasts, Predictions, etc. ALL the successful firms do it. They forecast/predict based on economic data, gut & emerging technologies what to invest in.

Of course, if you pay too much for the "expected" growth then shauri yako...

Ahhh... NOT everyone gets it right!

Word of caution: A forecast is just that BUT before coming to a conclusion try & reason it out.

Use logic, available data & don't follow the crowd!

An Example: Kenya had good rains which was good for horticultural products which are primarily exported by air thus KQ benefits.

But ask what of oil prices?
Has tourism picked up since cargo is only a portion of KQ's revenue?
Have additional security costs after 9/11 & recent events in London impacted KQ?

Don't pick on "one" aspect only!

kenyanentrepreneur said...

I've noticed what you do by reading your blog. you tend to focus on CEO'S and their management styles.

Bankelele tends to focus on market share. If the companys commands x amount of market share, then Y will happen, which will then push the price to Z.

After doing some initial research, i've come to conclusion that there's a better way. It's called trend following. with trend following, you don't try to predict the future, you just essentially follow the price trends of a particular stock. why is it a better system? because trend followers have determined that all the assumptions that people like you and bankelele make, will eventually show up in the stock price. so, why bother trying to predict?? it's a waste of time and it is very often not accurate!

I am in the process of doing additional research on this and will post the info on my blog when i am done.

gathinga said...

kenyanenterpreneour: you had better show up with this new formula

bankelele said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
bankelele said...

coldtusker: Aga Khan companies do well and good, regardless of family behavior, which is like sating that prince harry or prince charles misdeeds have an impact on UK or the royal family investments. Another comparison, quote from a Prince song "style is not sitting court-side with the onwer of a (sports) team, style is owning the court, and charging them all (spectators) a fee"

Ken: They did slightly better here, but much better than kengen.

sijui: Thanks, was a nice article in the Economist

KE: Am not a believer in trends. sample a few of them here (i) peopel are drinking less beer ii) people are buying fewer newspapers (iii) people are making fewer phone calls (iv) people are avoiding expensive banks. but are these reflected in any stock price of EABL, NMG, Barclays and possibly Safaricom?

gathinga: I too want to see the formula

8/26/2006 2:04 PM

coldtusker said...

KE - Ahhh... what you are looking at is "Technical Analysis" versus "Fundamental Analysis"...

I am a FA kinda person!

KE said because trend followers have determined that all the assumptions that people like you and bankelele make, will eventually show up in the stock price

Speculation is up your alley... and what you are "predicting" - oh, what you profess to hate - is that "Herd Mentality" will take root... Semantics, mon ami, determined=forecasted=predicted


Anonymous said...


Those are not the kind of trends I am referring to.

I know you are an FA guy. but you haven't gotten me because I haven't posted anything yet! & that herd mentality, which you have become victim to, will not take root with me because i won't be following the herd, i'll be following the charts..the raw data, the feel me?

I don't give an sh*t what the ceo says, or what is said at the AGM fact, they can run around bomas of kenya naked...I won't be watching them, I'll be watching the numbers.

coldtusker said...

Well, if the CEO(s) was running around Bomas naked... I think I will be switching to another firm!

propaganda said...

Anonymous: Watching numbers alone makes no sense. By the time they've been reported (annual/interim accounts) or even changed (market numbers), it's way too late. You can learn a lot from the naked CEO.

I used to write spin for a now delisted pan-African company (hence the handle 'propaganda'). For months we were dropping hints about "reining in central costs as part of a recovery strategy". That was code for "if we don't get the loan we've applied for, we'll fire senior managers to reduce corporate overheads and delist because the level of reporting required is expensive and shares have cratered anyway".

The things CEOs say to the press, shareholders etc reveal a lot about what's stressing them at the moment. I listen, because it's better than waiting for this pain to start showing up in the numbers.

coldtusker said...

Props - Thanx!

Very insightful! Only pan-African delisted firm that comes to mind is African Lakes!

Of course, there was (delisted) Motor Mart but I think they were Kenya-based (though part of Lonrho Africa).

I think we should all LISTEN coz there is more to discern from these comments that worry about what's for lunch!

I remember Naikuni complaining about KQ's low share price vs other "takataka" firms about 3 years ago. I wish I had the opportunity to meet him then coz now he is a "star" who many want to meet!

ndung'u said...

Did you get the girls school you requested in August? If not, I would propose Upper Matasia Secondary School, and I can actually get your girl there. Ndungu,


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