Friday, May 29, 2009

SWAG Like Us

Thursday and Friday have seen a series of company annual general meetings (AGM's) for their shareholders. Thursday had Standard Chartered, and Nation media group, while Friday had Co-operative Bank, Diamond Trust, CFC Bank, and Scangroup.

With over 50 listed companies, why some days become so popular is a mystery; calendars can be spread out by the capital markets authority. It has been difficult for media and investors to keep up with this; media houses will perhaps give coverage to only one event (e.g. Nation mainly featured their own AGM), while a common lament of shareholders has been there are 365 days a year, how do these companies all pick on one day to have five different meetings?

Investors want SWAG: An excellent series of (3) articles on investor relations (IR) management in East Africa notes that retail investors are often there (at AGM’s) for the free lunch, not for company information.

And how do investors deal with the challenges posed these last two days?
- try and attend every AGM
- Dashing back and forth to attend all, spend as much time as it takes to get SWAG
- Send a friend or relative as a proxy to get SWAG while they do the same at another meeting

What is SWAG? The urban dictionary gives the best definition of SWAG which can be

promotional merchandise for a band, record label, or other entity in the music business, usually distributed at concerts. May include t-shirts, stickers, promo CDs, posters, etc. Often free, but not necessarily; a t-shirt or record purchased at a concert might still be considered swag, especially if it is a design or release that is not readily available in the mass market. The chief difference between swag and regular merchandise is that its purpose is not to make a profit, but to promote the band/label, and reward its supporters by giving them something cool and unique

Or
Stuff/Sh*t We All Get - Relating to the trade show convention industry, where exhibitors hand out "free stuff" to visitors. Most of the time these items are purely promotional materials, and are fairly worthless. i.e. pencils, mugs, and mouse pads. SWAG always has the company name, logo, slogan, product, service, and contact information clearly printed somewhere on the item/s


So SWAG is why many investors attend corporate annual general meetings. Don't believe that institutional investors and media attendees are immune to the lure of SWAG - they also get their own SWAG, often the same stuff (meals & promotional items) but at different more respectable venues.

Why SWAG?: Companies should not lament SWAG as being expensive items that are the price of being a listed company that has to satisfy hungry shareholders. A shareholder has to show up (or send a proxy a.k.a authorized representative) to get some SWAG.

Attendees have to show up to get SWAG, those who are not in attendance or represented don't get any except the dividend which all shareholders get, but according to the number of shares they own. For many shareholders, their SWAG is much more than the dividend that their shareholding entitles them to

For the guest It is also a universally African concept to honour your guests with a meal.
For the host And for the company giving out SWAG this can be vital to the orderly and delicate flow of a company’s annual general meeting. Also, in marketing terms, a well designed, durable and branded cap, travel bag, t-shirt or umbrella, will be used to market the company for years to come in faraway parts of the country where even the company’s products are not sold, and long after the shareholder has sold their shares.

SWAG Costs: While the costs of SWAG items (from vendors like Vajas and San Valencia) has not increased by much, the number of shareholders seeking SWAG appears to have gone up significantly in these tough economic times. many show up for SWAG and don’t even enter the meeting hall and some companies acknowledge this by handing out SWAG before the meeting starts. And therefore the cost of hosting an annual general; meeting has gone up Safariom with 800,000 shareholders is probably contemplating the SWAG question for its annual general meeting set for august 19.

How can they minimize the cost of SWAG?
- have a meeting at a remote venue and hope few show up for it
- publicly announce that they are not going to be giving out any SWAG. But tough to do when well paid directors and executives are announcing billions in profits
- be stingy with the SWAG (Yesterday, the Nation Media Group gave out copies of their newspapers (Daily Nation, Taifa Leo, Business Daily and East African) along with a buffet lunch, while a few years ago they gave out gym bags & polo shirts with lunch and transport to the venue)

What's your opinion of SWAG?

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Reading the Tea Leaves at Stanchart


The CEO of Standard Chartered Kenya explains in the annual report that their strategy is aligned to that of the UK parent group, and that the (Kenyan) bank has focused on chosen markets, does business with customers they know well and products they fully understand - adding that, so far, the standard chartered group one of the few international banks that has weathered the global crisis.

I’m not sure that makes sense to shareholders since if the (UK) parent also drives the same strategy here in Kenya, being conservative has not been as kind to the bottom line

Bank assets through the years
2005: Barclays Kenya 105 billion, KCB 74, Stanchart 72, Equity 11
2006: Barclays 118 billion, KCB 87, Stanchart 81, equity 20b
2007: Barclays 158 billion KCB 112 Stanchart 91 equity 53 billion
2008: KCB 174 billion, Barclays 168, Stanchart 99, equity 77

The conservative bank has seen its peers that have aggressively expanded, also grow at much faster rates. 4 years ago, Stanchart was almost equal in assets with KCB and today KCB is almost twice as large. Stanchart also maintained the No.2 profit figure behind Barclays each year, but falling further back, until in 2008 both KCB and Equity have passed its pre-tax profit position.

Outlook for the bank

- Change in strategy – should they have gone retail? They have Diva accounts (for ladies) and X account (for yuppies), mortgage, and corporate finance where they have cut some big deals

- New Chairman: There are on-going board changes, both executive & non executive. Chairman David Njoroge (board member since 1996, and chairman since 2006) and director J. Mugo (of federation of Kenya employers) will both retire at the AGM this month

- In 2008, they were the only big Kenyan bank to record a drop in income and profit. |Their loans went up 10% to 43 billion, and deposits were up 4% to 77 billion; also income was up, but costs went up 13% to 5 billion owing to infrastructure, technology, and staff costs. but only added two branches in year). The CEO says they have set aside 3.5 billion for new headquarters, acquire/refurbish branches (likely to be for high net worth clients), new core banking system, electronic banking new staff – all part of the largest group investment in Kenya.

-Their 2008 annual report is one of the biggest I have seen at 105 pages. The chairman's statement takes 6 pages (3 English, 3 Swahili), CEO statement 8 (4/4) , (8 pages on community, environmental & development) - which includes mentions of their being the lead financial arranger for TEAMS sub –cable and Kengen energy expansion), one page on HR (mentions 48% of employees are women, have policies for extended maternity, non-discrimination), One page on tackling financial crime (they trained 300 staff on fraud & also trained 60 Kenya anti-corruption commission (KACC) staff on financial crime risk) - and finally 53 pages of financial statements and notes

- They spent 64 million on corporate social responsibility (CSR). The annual Nairobi international marathon (sponsored by Stanchart) raised 12.5 million in 2008 up from 9.4 million in 07 - and the funds channeled to nine eye hospitals around the country

- Their statement on corporate governance has a policy barring insider trading of the company shares

- Loans to the manufacturing went up from 5 to 12 billion and real estate at 4 billion, transport & communications at 7 billion, and wholesale/retail trade at 10 billion were their main loan categories

- This month shareholders will amend article of the company to allow financial statements be sent by fax, e-mail or be published on their own website/Nairobi stock exchange (site) while notices may be simply advertised in daily newspapers along with abridged financial statements as long as they include an e-mail or postal address from where shareholder can request & obtain full accounts. Shareholders will also vote to allow electronic payment of dividends

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Total 2009 AGM

The 55th annual general meeting of Total Kenya was held on May 19 2009 at KICC and was presided over by company Chairman Herve Allibert
Easy registration took a minute. Total have introduced an electronic check-in, shareholders or their proxies show up with a bar code, which is scanned and they as they sign in

Q&A

Erroneous publication: company secretary apologized for some omitting list of top shareholders and wrong agenda contained in the annual report; saying the printer gave out wrong copy.

Buyout of Chevron assets: in 2007 Chevron decided has divested from petrol stations in west and east Africa and Total is buying their stations in Kenya and Uganda. The chairman clarified that parent Total Group (pronounced Tota hutra -meh) is buying the assets and deal will be finalized in June 2009. Thereafter Total Kenya (78% owned by Total Group) will buy the assets from the Total Group. Total Kenya has obtained regulatory approvals in Kenya, is arranging financing for that deal, and the directors will call for a shareholders meeting in a few months to approve that deal.
In answering another shareholder, Chairman added that Total Group is not divesting from Africa; they know how to do business in Africa, work well here and will continue to invest here

Performance drop in fourth quarter: board member answered shareholder that it was true that Q4 performance was worse. He said it was a s a result of negative stock effect (oil bought at $140+ that was sold at lower prices), and company had to make provision of Kshs 171 million for a supplier (Triton?) who was paid, but failed to deliver products to the company. He added that Q1 of 09 was much improved as the company had received a payment of 150 million in refunds from the Kenya revenue authority (KRA), a feat, which the Chairman added, was very difficult to attain.

Increase in borrowing costs: this had gone up because of the price of fuel was up, while they also had to pay upfront for all taxes

Bio energy: the group does research and investment for that and deploys products such as bio-diesel now sold in Ethiopia

No women directors Chairman said company was aware of this mis-match. They were continuously seeking some women to join the board and also plan to have more women in all management levels of the company

Hot point I - Total’s Q&A format; instead of having shareholders stand and ask questions, Total have (for some years now) had shareholders write their questions down on notes which are then handed to the board table and the company secretary selects a few which to read. The directors were today accused of ignoring some questions, not answering other key questions properly (about the flat share price and lack of bonus shares), while altogether leaving shareholders and some directors in the dark . The Chairman said they would review the practice before next meeting. Another aspect of the meeting (the French Chairman called it a “general assembly” ) that was challenged was the time of the meeting 3 PM

Hot Point II – Goodies:
- Total still doesn’t get it; they always have buffet of meat bitings , today by San Valencia that is messy to serve with shareholders jostling to get some food before it’s finished. They should just serve lunch boxes.

- each shareholder got a tote bag, t-shirt and an umbrella. Some shareholders complained that they had not got their gift items (but somehow other shareholder had 3 or 4 umbrellas) – and the company secretary was asked to record their names and see if the company could have them delivered after the meeting

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Serena Copes with Kenya Tourism Dip

TPSEA (Serena) the only listed Kenya tourism chain had sales of Kshs. 3.2 billion ($40 million) and profit of 223 million (~$3 million) for the year ended September 2008 both down 12% and 54% respectively from 3.7 billion and 416 million in 2007.

2008 was listed as one of the worst years for Kenya tourism with some smaller hotels going under receivership, laying off staff and shutting for prolonged periods

Saved by Tanzania?: Serena was a beneficiary of diversification as the group integrated its east Africa operations in 2006. For comparison, in 2007 Kenya accounted for 2/3 of sales and profit, but in 2008, Kenya provided 59% of revenue and just 25% of profit, while Tanzania had 41% of sales (1.34 billion) and 75% of profit (167m)

Unfortunately there’s no breakdown of income of properties they manage in Mozambique, Rwanda or Uganda. Serena owns or manages 8 properties in Kenya, 6 in Tanzania, 2 in Rwanda (Kigali serena, lake kivu serena), 1 each in Uganda (kampala serena), zanibar (serena inn) and mozambique (polana serena)

Invest in tough times: At a time when some banks have sworn off new tourism projects, Serena is using the downtime in the sector to expand. Serena will invest 400 million in Jaja Limited a to develop properties in Nanyuki and Elementaita once it gets shareholder approval. Shareholders will also get the same 1.25 shilling dividend as for the year 2007

Mt. Kenya seen from Nanyuki

No beef: The Farmer’s Choice chain, a related company, supplied 26 million shillings worth of meats & sausages to Serena in 2008, down from 33 million in 2007

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Centum seeks Carbacid

and other Bank Twits

Twitter is a micro-blogging tool that is relly nifty for doing mini-posts, forwards and other remarks that (are on any subject) and are maybe not worthy of a full blog post. Here’s a summary of my week on Twitter:

- @louizah Zain Vuka has ended? Please confirm
- @NTV showing IFC-funded docu on women entreprenurs - meaning manu-arsenal will be on tape delay - WHY? next @NTV ditched a static-filled channel & skipped their 'half time' piece to present second half live, on a much clearer signal! Kudos
- Sports journo era over? Player asks for trade on blog team obliges on Twitter player thanks fans on Facebook http://tinyurl.com/d967eu
- blog post Why Safaricom should spin off MPesa http://bit.ly/gYZ86
- The Central Bank of Kenya reports have become incomprehensible B.S
- Upgraded Safaricom Investor relations page has media and CEO briefings http://bit.ly/VBZ2f
- Tanzania will now recognize Kenya manufacturers mark of quality http://bit.ly/USZHg
- Delta Air round-trip intro fares from Nairobi include (ex-tax) $650-NY/DC, $975-ATL/Chi/ Dallas, $1124-LA/SF and $1440-Detroit
- @kahenya @jamesmurua likes Riviera, which has good crowd and facilities, but beer is pricey and the place is a fire-trap
- So Joe Biden met Nairobi mayor Majiwa in chicago. There, thats the end of the joke
- Safaricom CEO says M-Pesa not yet profitable http://bit.ly/TDV8D
- @leofaya says Kenyan promoters are killing Facebook http://bit.ly/zBHXB
- Today's pavement uprooting is sponsored by access kenya - as the fibre optic railway is laid around Nairobi
- @Archermishale sports conspiracy goes that where a sport wants to sway a big game, they put in a low-quality ref, but didn't happen on Wednesday
- Safaricom partners with Kenyas' largest bank KCB http://bit.ly/J4l92
- Kenya budget saga ($115 million) blamed on a typo - Quote ODB "N___ please!" http://tinyurl.com/p5hoyo
- blog post: two bank shareholder meetings same day same building same time http://bit.ly/86lNq
- @pinkm so you can only use debit, but not credit card to buy amazon books from KE? Interesting
- Ethiopian Air applies to fly from Nairobi to Amsterdam and Nairobi –Liege (Belgiu
- Land spin: Could there be a link between migingo island and the kampala land kenya got from Uganda military?
- If MTN buy Yu or Access Kenya, they will have to negotiate with MTN matatu society for use of name
- blog post Its Our Turn to Eat (is credit card worthy) http://bit.ly/YnriQ
- NMG 2008 report gives prominent mention of new digital division, Making-Nation DVD and Zuqka portal http://tinyurl.com/qkcphc
- Centum applies to the CMA to buy Kshs.350m of Carbacid shares and be largest shareholder of the Nairobi listed (but suspended) company
- Senator cards advise customers to only upload to https, not http sites. It's rare to find credit company giving card advice
- From Mars Group: Parliament's Report on the Kenya Budget inconsistencies http://blog.marsgroupkenya....

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Book Review: It’s Our Turn to Eat

a review of the book without having read the book. Note that I generally don’t like read reviews’. If I want to watch a movie or read a new fiction book, I won’t read any reviews of it till after I watch it; this is because reviews tend to contain too many spoilers and plot giveaways.

During the May Day holiday weekend, I finally finished reading It’s Our Turn to Eat – the bootleg version, one which the author warned was not the real copy. It’s a fairly comprehensive e-mail; I’d wager its close enough to the real thing that and that over 90% of the blog readers here have read the PDF (real or faux) - and please don’t ask me for a copy.

The introduction of the book to Kenya, a biography of former anti-corruption Tsar John Githongo (written by Michela Wrong), had three background factors
- John Githongo is a powerful, polarizing person in Kenya; a patriot & champion to some, a traitor & coward to others. While his accounts of events related to Anglo Leasing has been published in his parliamentary reports; not much has been written about Githongo the person this is his story
- While the Government of Kenya never commented or banned, the book, several Nairobi bookshops shied away from displaying or advertising the book. This was because of previous libel awards that bookshops who were near easy targets got fined for carrying books that powerful leaders (Nicholas Biwott) felt besmirched them
- Also at the same time, a PDF version of the book also circulating and was forwarded and downloaded widely The author Michela Wrong and her publishing house realized that there was a leaked version circulating and:

(i) Alerted her friends and the net community that a faux/earlier/incomplete version was being circulated
(ii) Released a low cost e-book to counter the faux copy.

Having only read the faux copy, I can only comment on what’s in it. I have no doubt it comes close to the real thing. I still intend to get a copy of the real book – either buying one from a friend, or having one delivered from abroad - good enough that I want to read the read the book - and not the E-Copy but the actual book; having a book still convey paper books have functionality, and durability that e-books don’t – I can read the book anywhere (matatu, bank queue, at lunch). Demand for the book is make me want to break a vow and obtain a credit card perhaps to buy it from Amazon (UK) or the publisher.

Michael Wrong’s last book I read was In the Footstep of Mr. Kurtz, about Mobutu Sese Seko and his years as President of Zaire (a.k.a the Democratic Republic of Congo.) It’s the definitive book for anyone new to the Congo or wishing to understand the Congo's post-independence history, economy, diversity, people, problems etc. Likewise the Githongo book - focused on high-level government corruption, raw tribal political leadership, ease of corruption, political interference/weakness of judiciary - will be the definitive book of the Kibaki era (Kenya 2002 to the present) and until other government personalities commission their own biographies, this will be the way that the recent political history of Kenya will be understood. It would be nice to read about Michael Waweru on tax collection strategies, Peter Kenneth and the use of Constituency Development Funds, Esther Koimett at the Privatization process, and Kilemi Mwiria on free primary education etc.

Other local reviews of the book.

Friday, May 08, 2009

AGM Split

Family Bank and KCB 2009 AGM

Family Bank is 25 years old this year and is about the 21st largest bank in Kenya. It is in some circles known as Equity Blue because of some similarities with retail giant Equity Bank (it operated as family finance building society till May 2007)

They held their AGM today in Nairobi; it was a straight forward meeting, very informal. Chairman is Mr. Titus Muya who’s the founder and was also the CEO till about two easy ago when he relinquished that post reluctantly.

Q&A
Joseph Kaguthi, former PC, Anti-drug tsar is a shareholder in the company and also asked some good questions (he’ll be referred to as JK)

Q. When will the bank list it shares? Many shareholders bought share in the bank in anticipation of it listing soon (JK noted they said they’d so it within three years and they’d be a market for their shares and asked the board to clarify the over the counter (OTC) market as more people want to buy shares in the bank
A. Management replied that they were ready to list last year/early this year, but that the timing was not right I.e. Nairobi stock exchange was in a down mode, see Co-Op Bank shares after IPO

On Presentation of the annual report
- JK noted they have improved presentation of the report by including report, missions, vision, values, but he asked them to now include a list of top 10 shareholders as this was a governance issue
Q. another asked why if retained earnings were high, the bank was giving low dividend?
A. Need retained earnings to grow. Also company can’t pay share capital or premium back to shareholders

Q. loans as security - One shareholder who’s a carpenter narrated a tale of how he fell sick for many months and ran out of funds; he wanted to take a loan using his share as collateral
A. company act doe not allow one to sue company’s shares to borrow from same company

Q. why are non performing loans high
A CEO O said their bad loans are 6% of loan book compared to banking sector average of 11%. Also they are mining those and collected 100 million from non performing loans last year

Investor outlook
- Only customers can buy shares in the bank
- May have raise capital in a few years owing to fast growth
- Company registered opened on may 1, and divided (Kshs 1.50) will be paid on may 30 2009

KCB AGM: KICC is a very popular site for annual general meetings since Philip Kisia (now appointed the new town clerk in Nairobi) rehabilitated what was a very run-down Nairobi landmark. But with almost 170,000 shareholders it may have been the wrong place to hold their annual meeting. The lines snaked all over the courtyard and registration took a couple of hours for some people I hear

Comrade Sylkwan (thank you) was at the meet and gave a brief re-cap of the Q&A sessions

Q: Why there was no proxy for on the financial statements which were issued at the AGM
A: Shareholders had already been sent to the F/S and the previous years the proxy form was used by s/holders to collect multiple gifts

Q: Why foreign institutional investors own a lot of shares in KCB and what benefits it brought to the Bank
A. KCB shares are listed at the NSE and everyone is free to buy them

Q. Age of directors was not indicated on the F/S. Since there were directors seeking re-election, wanted to know if any was above 70years
A: None of their directors was above that age and if so they would have issued a special resolution

Q: why KCB shareholders could not withdraw cash at the Uganda branch
A: the CE said that it was possible to withdraw money unless there was a technical hitch on that day

Q: Triton issue?
A. Ignored this question (continuing a no comment on Triton or any KCB customer policy)

stalled building construction on Waiyaki Way, rumored to be a Triton property

Q: why the bank does not provide fare to the Shareholders who travel from far
A: It was not possible to pay shareholders fare and share dividends

Q: why the CSR budget was so high even when KCB was only issuing a Kshs. 1.00 per share
A: KCB was spending 2.2b in dividends and Kshs. 54m was a drop in the ocean. KCB also needed to establish a good relationship with the community where the business is established.

Honest Scrap Awards


I was tagged by Riviera Owner Kahenya whose site you can now comment on:

Rules
- You must brag about the award
- You must include the name of the blogger who bestowed the award on you and link back to the blogger
- You must choose a minimum of seven (7) blogs that you find brilliant in content or design.
- Show their names and links and leave a comment informing them that they were prized with Honest Weblog.
- List at least ten (10) honest things about yourself. Then pass it on with the instructions!

10 things
1. Contrary to Kahenya's suggestion, I don’t take the Google kool-aid; I don’t sing their praise or earn an adsense cent. Having said that they control too may aspects of my life (blog, e-mail, news-reader, and search), and whatever their motives, they are good hosts, caterers, and sponsors for skunkworks events in Nairobi
2. My tech skills are nonexistent – just basic HTML. I’m not a techie, most of my posts are written in Microsoft Word
3. I’m really not feeling my job these days
4. I picture myself as Mr. Patel,a shopkeeper, behind the shop desk running the cash register (and laptop) from a small duka on Kirinyaga Road. I need a kick start into entrepreneurship
5. I am jealous of the Ushaidi crew; nevertheless I am committed that I will be a good director of that organization. You will invite me right?
6. Like Kahenya I love flying and once thought that (from the right angle) Martha Karua was hot
7. I’m not good at forming friendships and have a rather small group of close friends
8. My family, my core
9. Several friends and relatives are reading this; but I don’t like talking about blogging in public
10. I try and answer every tag with a commitment that I will not take part in another and will not pass it on to other bloggers

Thursday, May 07, 2009

NSE Portfolio May 2009

hit bottom? Time to buy?

Last quarterly check of the Nairobi share portfolio was in February 2009 and a year ago
The Stable


Diamond Trust ↓
Kenya Airways
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Review:
- Best performer: KCB up 2%
- Worst performer Stanbic down 30% (combination of share drop and weaker Uganda shilling), and Safaricom down 10%
- In: Kenya Airways
- Out: none
- Increase none
- Decerease none
- Unexpected gains/losses: none

Events & Outlook:
- Performance: Portfolio is up 1% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 3.5%
- Bought KQ, tried to buy illiquid Kenol at 30

Looking forward to
- Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (UG)
- Privatization commission has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

M-Pesa IPO?

Mobile transfer solution M-Pesa from Safaricom was on Monday inaugurated as loan repayment tool for microfinance.

SMEP using M-Pesa for loan repayment is now the latest M-Pesa partner joining satellite TV, medical cover, investment funds, spare part utility provides and insurance companies that now enable their customers to remit monthly or periodic solutions via M-Pesa.

This phenomenon is not unseen, it addresses gaps in the banking sector; and now M-Pesa solutions are coming from the customers, not Safaricom - which is the way it should be.

M-Pesa Flaws: M-Pesa with it's 5 million customers is not perfect and it may have reached the zenith for now; it is pricey, it requires business owners to put up substantial credit (float) to access the system, it's statements are crude etc. Electricity bills can now be paid by M-Pesa, but accounts take 48 hours to be credited, while with rival transfer product Zap (from Zain) they take 24 hours. The fault probably lies with Kenya power, which has forged closer links with the less established Zap and Standard Chartered Bank.

Loan potential: M-Pesa, a Vodafone solution is now goes into the area, that no one can contain credit growth. The SMEP (micro-finance loan) repayments are just a start. Banks and savings & credit societies (SACCO’s) can easily utilize M-Pesa for loan repayments under the current 35,000 shilling ($440) daily transfer limit. e.g. a 400,000 shilling ($5,000) SACCO loan at 12%, repaid over one year will have installments of 35,932 per month, or a car loan of 800,000 shillings ($10,000) repaid over 3 years at 21% interest would have repayment of 30,140 per month.

New markets: M-Pesa has been built on the back of Safaricom, operating informal relationships with subscribers who submit a bare minimum of information. That relationship requirement with customers requires a lot less than with a bank and international know your customer guidelines (KYC). Already, all the mobile companies have aspirations of moving on to international transfers and merchant banking which will also bring them more into collision with banks, western union and debit/credit card giants.

New regulations: M-Pesa's already fractious relationships with banks is likely to get worse; and with (soon) three mobile companies offering money transfers, and all eating into bank ledger and interest income, there will be calls to rein them in. Soon it is likely that the government of Kenya will create an e-commerce regulatory body (another parastatal) since neither the communications commission or the central bank has absolute authority.

Second Safaricom IPO: Vodafone should spin off M-Pesa into a separate company. M-Pesa is now able to stand on its own, and handle its own competition, regulatory, and licensing issues. Safaricom should let it go, focus on other voice and data services, while continuing to enjoy the revenue M-Pesa spins, by subscribing for shares in it. By freeing it from Safaricom, M-Pesa will move from being an 'unregulated’ but licensed solution owned and managed by Vodafone (UK) to a local-listed company, owned and operated in Kenya.

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