Unga AGM 2008

The company which was founded in December 1908 by Lord Delamere to mill his wheat harvest, is now a century old. It is celebrating its fourth straight years of profits on the back of improved sales Kshs. 9.5 billion (~$125 million) and profits of Kshs. 564 million (~$7.5 million). The Chairman commented on the improvement from the time a few years back when they used to record losses and had their financial accounts qualified by the auditors.

slow registration
Excerpts: missed a few minutes of the meeting as the registration was really slow - just two ladies, with no computer. They had to write every shareholder name down, and have them sign, but without verification of their legitimacy

Bonus: The company offering a (1) bonus share for each five (5) held to reward shareholders since the board had opted not to pay a cash dividend this year.

Company structure: The Seaboard Corporation is a management company and shareholder that contributed to the turnaround. However their presence is a sore point with some shareholders unhappy that while they have no divined, Seaboard gets paid a minimum of Kshs. 12 million a year that will escalate as the company gets more profitable. Their agreement has also been extended by the directors for another five years and there was also a question on the loans owed to the company that could be called in at any time - an unlikely scenario according to the board
- Shareholders also asked on the relationship between Nampak (a partner company) and Bulpack which was a joint venture between Nampak and Unga to make bags. The dividend paid that appears in the accounts was paid to Unga from Bulpak, and not by Unga.

(No) Dividend: Though this was the fourth year of profits, the board said it still needed to retain cash for plant & machinery replacement and to also strengthen the balance sheet.

No Maize in Kenya: Later the Unga MD Nicholas Hutchinson gave a talk on the current maize shortage and stated that the company (Unga) had ran out of maize (corn) stock floor eight days ago. He said there is not enough maize in the country, and the late decision by the Government to import maize, means it will trickle to the markets slowly – by mid December. The Cabinet may release more to millers, but the Government also wants to build up grain reserves and assist displaced people (flood, post-election violence victims)

The maize harvest this year was bad - Unga is offering Kshs. 2,500 per and 2,250 in Nairobi and Eldoret respectively but are still not able to get enough maize so they are operating about 35 – 40% which may show in the coming results

For consumers faced with a high retail price (just under Kshs. 100 for a 2kg pack, it’s a good time for farmers, but bad for consumers (dangerous?) - as prices may not drop significantly even after the supply. He said that the Government will be importing maize to Nairobi at Kshs. 2,500 if no duty is paid and that it must speculative ventures – which has affected supply of maize. Also, next year's maize harvest could be just as bad.

Receivables: are much higher than the year before. Management responded that its from their increased business. They had in fact reduced the number of customers i.e. 55 key wholesalers that they deal (down from 140) with and gave them incentives to pay cash or open bank guarantees.

Outlook: - Asked about market share, management said it was growing. They focus on urban markets and supermarkets, and don't emphasize rural sales as entrepreneurs can flour mill and sell it cheaper than Unga branded products.
- Other subsidiaries: are performing well like the Uganda one and animal feed division - Unga had anticipated a maize shortage so had started to substitute maize with wheat in their animal feed. Wheat subsidiary is good though the current good prices may fall next year

Shareholder gift
Goodies: Each shareholder present got a voucher for a bale of baking flour. Which retails at about Kshs. 1,500 ($20)

Bank waters

In the pool

Diving in: Another West African bank giant UBA follows Ecobank after apparently having secured a banking license to operate in Kenya. 

Treading in the shallow end: Still finding their ground are the new Islamic Banks - Gulf African and First Community that started business last year. They are likely to be the only banks that will record losses of at least Kshs. 200 million each as their new branches and staff continue to reach out and educate customers on a new way to bank. 

Had enough swimming?: 

(i) Morgan Stanley who were supposed to introduce long-term foreign investors to Kenya with a five-year window or longer, but instead brought in short term investors at the expense of the Government and othre investors who took out their profits in a week. Another lesson learnt a long way back from the IPO.

(ii) The Kenyan unit of Citi is on track to rake in profits of $50 million this year on the back of aggresive trading, but will it be enough, or will it be bled off by the parent unit? And who would buy it and its lucrative American interest-linked business portfolio?

Tujuane: Transforming from Employee to Employer

Tujuane is a network with almost 3,000 worldwide members, it is an offshoot of Nairobist that was founded in 2006, by a group of ex-Boston graduates who chanced on a means to network and interact beyond Facebook-type connections, but with actual get-togethers and network forums. It has almost 3,000 members including 45 in Kampala, and Dar es Salaam each who communicate and share through newsletter, listing of theirs businesses, a book club soma, surveys and meet-ups.

On November 21 in Nairobi, they held a mixer – or a networking event dubbed The Road from Employee to Employer with an address by Dr. Mulengani Katwalo, the director of theInstitute for Strategy & Competitiveness (ISC) at the Strathmore Business School.


Dr. Katwalo - Photo courtesy of EGM


His talk centered on what local entrepreneurs/business owners can change to enable them to succeed in business. Success is not about starting a business – as anyone can find business plan on the Internet – with the unfortunate result that that 60 – 70% of entrepreneurs fail in the first year. This is because they behave like athletes who try to go from starting to running, but who don’t warm up first:

Entrepreneurs can make changes in six areas to ease the transformation

1. Training/skills development: Many entrepreneurs may have the drive, and the money but lack some skills, necessary to understand customers, and make a transition to understand their business/industry to take it to the next level. They should engage in short courses, but more important they should contribute to the agenda of education. E.g. by working with universities to set the learning curriculum for business such as the local tourism sector.

2. Innovation : Entrepreneurs do not engage in research & development (R&D)(by show of hands no one in the room was engaged in R&D departments/capacities) - and there are no budgets for new ideas and creations. Entrepreneurs need to embrace the process of buying and selling knowledge. If you have a good idea and cannot use, can you sell it?. The developed world is about exchange of ideas, not just goods & services. We need to convert ideas into cold hard cash.
- Entrepreneurs should know there is nothing wrong with copying, benchmarking, or reverse engineering. E.g. the Nyayo Car may have succeeded if it had been built in collaboration with a Japanese company and with just a Kenyan name. That’s how Tata rose to become a world leader in the sector. Presently there’s still a local mindset that doing imitation is inferior.
- In business, be brave enough to learn, pick an idea and use it. The patent for kyondo (baskets) is owned in Japan, and when you see Japanese tourists taking photos, a lot of them act as blueprints for products
- Innovation is crucial, but its not about going to the lab only – its about getting new ideas and converting them into products and services e.g. in Kenyan hospitals, while equipment is new, there has been no innovation in service
- Entrepreneurs should not stop innovating: Once you make enough money – the tendency is for many to move to big (Karen) houses, buy big cars, get new wives etc. They don’t create legacies that sustain wealth, so that every generation has to start over again.

3. Culture: There is a bad (local) attitude and perception that needs to change specially in regards of treatment of customers. This bad Matatu treatment towards customers, as though entrepreneurs are doing them a favour is bad for business. Entrepreneurs do not owe customers a favour - they are providing a service, which customers are paying for. Until our customer service changes to reflect this change in attitude, we will always be second best. In other countries, even if someone doesn’t like you, they will serve you and take your money – and ensure you (as a customer) keep coming back.
- Customer acquisition skills are poor – entrepreneurs do not keep up with innovation in the industry, they don’t read much. There's a lazy tendency to finish work, go to bar and then sleep. To be a world-class entrepreneur, you must make sacrifices, take make deliberate efforts such as take courses to develop management skills and read books otherwise they will always remain second best.

4 Neighborhoods If you don’t know your market, you will always be the village beauty Entrepreneurs need to know what opportunities exist beyond their neighborhoods or they will never take advantage of them. Do you look at your market as the Westlands area (a Nairobi suburb) or the 100 million + people in the greater East Africa – Congo, S. Sudan, Somalia? Only those that have eyes, can see the market, like the South Africans who have invested here in Kenya.
- It's also a perception issue, when you see people – do you see market or problems – what is your attitude towards expansion? Exporting to Europe? etc.

5 Cooperation or competition - This is an increasing trend in the business world to cooperate rather than compete – because not all your competitors are your enemies. This can also work in knowledge exchange (there’s appears to be a marketing understanding in Nakumatt and Tuskys, though both supermarkets, are not competitors as they target different clientele

6. Cooperation - working in networks (like Tujuane, clusters, create linkages, exchanges etc. as individual businesses do not exist in isolation – so entrepreneurs should network with related companies. We had a stimulating group discussions in which participants listed reasons for joining a network as among others - get contacts in the industry, socializing [with like minded people] as they are very busy, Learn new ideas[raises competition], Synergy, Pooling of resources/barter of services & goods, learn new opportunities and for moral support [e.g. for freelancers who work from home]

5 Investments for 2009

The year is about done and its time to start planning for 2009, with alternatives to build alongside the shares portfolio that will be carried into the new year.

1. Money Markets: Unit trusts are currently offered by African Alliance, Old Mutual, British American, Stanbic, CBA, Suntra, Zimele, ICEA. The bare minimums for signing up are about Kshs. 100,000 (~$1,300), initial fee of 2% and annual fee of 2.

2. Real Estate: It’s time for to undertake a real estate investment that should be done in 2009 following the Pesa Tu’s blueprint though financiers have gone rather shy and some developments appear to have stalled. Have we reached a real estate peak after which it becomes a speculative bubble?

3. Social Networks: Need to invest more in offline social relationships – with buddies, friends, mentors, peers, chama societies and sports for spiritual, social, and physical health.

4. Travel more: My passport has grown mould this year and the need to breathe a different sort of air, see new sights and meet new people - locally and internationally is imperative for 2009. I had always wanted to visit Sauri – the Jeffrey Sachs millennium village, now I must add Kogelo to my travel plans for western Kenya

5. Become a pirate?: Investing is about risk and reward and the numbers are there for the new hot profession of late 2008. It’s not very different from what is my daily bread anyway.

Tandaa Roundup

I was not able to attend last week's Tandaa - the first content conference hosted by the Kenya ICT Board, but have been noting what was said, and for other absentees, here’s a recap:

Rombo asks where were the bloggers? Multiple speakers acknowledged the important role Kenyan bloggers now play in generating and distributing Kenyan content. and later the (Kenya) ICT board has set aside US$4 million to be disbursed over the next four years to fund feasible Kenya content generation projects.

Kenyan Poet was there, gave a talk and also added a photo album of Tandaa photos from the event

Another nice recap from Kipkemoi who notes It is heartening that many website owners are earning good money from e-commerce… points that came out:
- There is a market for local content.
- The pay for registration model for portals and content sites isn’t feasible at the moment.
- Monetizing mobile content provision is easier. (because mobile users are used to paying for services)
- Government registration need to be streamlined, too many vague licences

From Brighter Monday - numbers don’t lie - While we continue to complain that there is no ecommerce in Kenya, this company realized a turnover of $2 million in 2007. Now that was eye opening. Well from my analysis I know this takes hard work. To prove this, they have about 8000 inbound links! And they are leaping of the fruits. (Anyone who was there can please confirm my figures in article's comments on this below);
- I was also impressed by (kenyanpoet.blogspot.com); I think she depicts a good example of successful blogging. A snapshot of her traffic analysis showed that 42% of traffic came from referral links, 40% from search engines, 16% was direct traffic while 4% was in 'others'

The Mars Group Kenya blog voiced the questions that I’m sure many attendees had in mind i.e. where’s the money? - I am a large local content generator and run a Kenyan governance and transparency web portal with 19 thematic sub-domains containing over 1 and a half million terabytes of local content including digitized government and official reports on the national budget, government, state corporations and good governance. The site also features original multi-media resources including online news content generated by a team of 17 Kenyans all below the age of 30….In its first year of operation it got over 20 million hits, registered over 7,000 subscribers and webcast live international events including the November 5th election victory of Barack Obama from the US Ambassador’s Residence from http://marstv.marsgroupkenya.org .The site is regularly cited as an authority by local and international media and was recognized as a new media exemplar by www.opendemocracy.net.

Offline comments from the Skunkworks forum include a lengthy one from Robert Alai who commented that We must focus on local mpaka it becomes music……If you wanted a subscription website, you should have started with kenyalaw.org. If you wanted affiliates, mamamikes.com has affiliates. Lets focus on local…local examples and then mention the foreign ones just .. when you make people believe that Facebook is great, we won’t head anywhere. See why Tanzanians are engaging more in bongo5.com and jamiiforums than facebook and others. They are actively loading pics and content and these two websites are really coming…..up well and considering the age of the websites, we will see nice things from them. We should not glorify anything western. We must start appreciating our own facebook like Ngari has developed a good site, www.kasarani.com

KCB Back on Top

Now KCB Country: It’s been a long climb back, back but KCB will finally top the Kenyan bank rankings and will lead into 2009 on after overhauling perennial leader Barclays.


At the end of September, Barclays, led with Kshs. 173 billion in assets ($2.36 billion), even with KCB at Kshs. 172 billion [KCB group is at Kshs. 184 billion – through S&L, Uganda, Tanzania, S.Sudan subsidiaries]. But by 2010, it could be a different story. Three years ago, in September 2005, the score was Barclays 106 billion (1), KCB 70 billion (3) – and at that time Equity Bank was at Kshs. 10 billion (No. 13) – but today Equity is at Kshs. 75 billion (zooming in to No. 4)

Capital Issues
- Today is the last day for the Co-Op IPO.
- Strike out banks identified as probably going to raise capital a year ago - Kenya Commercial, Cooperative , National Bank of Kenya cabinet approved share sale, Commercial Bank of Africa, Standard Chartered, Stanbic, Investment & Mortgages got new shareholders, Barclays, Equity, and CFC/Stanbic.
- City Finance Bank shareholders voted to reduce the banks issued share capital to Kshs. 400 million down from 1.6 billion through a cancellation/change in the par value to reflect past losses. Current capital is 331 million

Who’s the Real Marshall?: Two notorious ex-bankers and Kamlesh Pattni and Ketan Somaia who have feuded for control of Marshals Limited (Tata, and formerly Peugeot franchise holders) should prepare for another encounter as the registrar General has called for a meeting in December to iron out the ownership of the company.

Bankers cheques only: If you want to visit and see wildlife in the Masai Mara Game Reserve, the Narok County Council will insist on payment of park fees by bankers cheque only from December. Since the Council collected Kshs. 573 million (~$ 8 million) in game park fees last year, is there concern that more was lost?

Fuel Fixed: The government has today gazetted petrol price margins for major towns in the country

Kutwa Tuesday: Sam’s Kids

They may be called Barack, Michelle, Obama, or other creative names, but many of these new kids born and given fabulous American
baby Obama names were conceived as a result of Uncle Sam’s bungled election debacle in December 2007.


Opportunities

Airbus University Challenge: the Airbus
Fly Your Ideas challenge is open to university students around the world with ideas on the future of aviation and improving its environmental position. Prizes are €30,000 and deadline is 1st December 2008

Georgetown Fellowships Apply for the Georgetown University Law Center’s Global Health Law Fellowship Program. D/L is February 16 2009

Kenya Content Conference Tandaa 08 a local content conference sponsored by the Kenya ICT Board takes place on November 14 2008.

Kenya’s Top Women The Business Daily invites you to nominate Kenya’s Top 40 women under 40. send their names, contracts and reasons why they are worthy (in less than 500 words) to top40under40@nation.co.ke by 30th November

Government of Kenya jobs:
- Judiciary 25 resident magistrates. D/L 21/11
- Electoral commission of Kenya – 39 district election coordinators

Biz brief’s

Co-Op IPO: is 1/3 of the way to target with just 3 days to go optimistic about the Co-Op IPO. transaction advisers have now released cash flow and share price projections that should have been in the Co-Op Prospectus. what happens if they fall short – will D&B pay C-op for the shortfall? Is there a last minute investor who will get preferential terms to bridge the gap? The prospectus states that in the event that this minimum amount is not attained, approval may be sought from the Authority to proceed with the listing of the existing shares and any Offer Shares that are subscribed under the Offer.

I got an SMS (as did other Co-op customers) inviting me to take part, but the application desks/tents still look rather forlorn

Equity - HF: November 4 was not just Obama day, but also the date when the Housing Finance and Equity Bank deals should have been completed

Foreign Investors Tough times for the former Rift Valley Railways and Tiomin who continue to flounder: Tiomin’s latest statement notes. …. the Government of Kenya has not completed the remaining bureaucratic steps required for the transaction to close…..Tiomin's management shares our investors' extreme frustration at this unreasonable delay….. Tiomin has acted in good faith and we are very disappointed….. If the closing continues to be delayed, we will consider terminating the MOU on the grounds of unreasonable delay….. Tiomin will issue another press release when further material information is available. Pity they have no local defenders

Geothermal prospects : two companies are scoping in Eburu (gilgil) and Menengai for geothermal energy

Brew turf Coca Cola launch minute maid juices in Kenya (what happens to 5 alive) as EABL launch Alvaro in Uganda

Sat-TV: DSTV will launch pre-paid scratch cards, following in the footsteps of rival GTV who are reaping from the ongoing English premier league

Insurance by M-Pesa: Madison Insurance now accepting insurance installment payments by M-Pesa following Old Mutual, which enabled investment, plan payments

Radio Standard Group prematurely possible radio investment worth Kshs 250 million as KISS FM parent Radio Africa rolls out their 4th radio station – XFM (rock music)

Share Portfolio November 2008

Last review in August 2008

The Stable
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Review
Best performer: Scangroup -8%
Worst performer Stanbic – 36%, Safaricom -28%
In: none
Out: none
Changes: None - Market down this last three months, no trades made (and no commission generated for stocbroker).
Performance: Down 12% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 16%
Looking forward to: Possibly picking up some Kenya Airways, Kengen, and Safaricom if their shares continue to get cheaper, but sitting out the Co-Op IPO.

President Obama

Congratulations to Barack Obama the next President of the United States of America. His name has appeared in these pages five times before today:

- April 2005: Congratulations to Wangari Maathai and Barack Obama for making the 2005 Time Magazine Heroes list. However I fear this achievement will be overshadowed be overshadowed by the drama surrounding Presidential wives.
- August 2007: After Oprah endorsed Obama , I endorsed Jonathan Mueke who was gunning for the Westlands MP seat
- January 2008: One review of the post-election violence in Kenya found that in the pre-election period, the (Kenyan) opposition may have been falsely buoyed by opinion polls which are not sound (& could the same thing have happened to Obama in New Hampshire?)
- Also in January 2008 mused that President Obama needs Equity Bank because 46% of African American household’s don’t have bank accounts – and he should borrow Equity Bank’s revolutionary model to bring banking to the unbanked.
- April 2008: In queing for the Safaricom IPO refers to a Kenyan habit of waiting till the last minute to do things as Obama also took a long time to warp up his party nomination.

Here’s to many more mentions, starting with - US stocks reacted positively on election day, and in the post election victory celebration the Nairobi Stock Exchange(NSE) has also rallied [Top gainers according to stockskenya - National Bank +9.94, CFC +9.91, Kenya Airways +9.91, Sasini +9.83, Diamond Trust +9.79 with no losers yet]

Co-Operative Bank Listing A to Z

Almost halfway through the IPO window which runs from October 30 to November 13 2008 at Kshs. 9.50 each. Minimum application amount is 1,000 for retail investors who will get 66% of the floated 701.3 million shares

Basis for listing funds raised will go toward new banking system, new branches, mortgage finance business, card business etc.

Cost of listing The budgeted cost is Kshs. 249 million ($3.1 million) and includes Placement fees 99m Advertising 68m, CMA fees 20m, Printing 17.5m, Lead Sponsoring Stockbrokers fees 8.4m, Public Relations 8.3m, Co-sponsoring Stockbrokers Fees 5.2m, Lead Transaction Adviser 5m, Legal Fees 5m, Receiving Bank fees 3m NSE listing 1.5m and valuation fees of 0.9m. This compares to Equity listing – 28m, Access Kenya 40m, Kenya Re 280m, Kengen IPO 401m, KCB rights 1.1 billion, and the giant Safaricom IPO at 1.1 billion shillings

Expert advice: See also Nairobist and Ratio perspectives on the Co-Op IPO

Float Retail investors will get 463 million shares and qualified Institutions will get 210 million shares, with employees another 28 million shares. The cooperative societies, which will own 62% of the company, are locked in for 5 years, but the existing individual shareholders are free to sell their (680 million) shares.

National Bank of Kenya a joint-receiving Bank for the IPO and the only bank to step forward and offer 100% loans towards the Co-op Bank IPO. Consolidated Bank has just announced that it is also financing.

Numbers Projected EPS is Kshs. 0.66 for 2008 from a profit of 3.45 billion ($43 million), and estimated assets of 87.6 billion [deposits of 66 billion and loans of 51 billion]. the bank has about 800,000 customers, 50,000 CDS accounts, 53 branches and 152ATM’s

Shareholders top shareholders comprise some of the largest savings and credit societies and also top management of the bank. These include Harambee SACCO 3.7%, Teleposta Sacco 2.97%, Afya SACCO 2.94%, Masaku Teachers SACCO 2.90%, Kipsigis Teachers SACCO 2.46% Kenya Police SACCO 2.33%, Gideon Maina Muriuki 2.32 (the Bank MD), Kiambu Unity Finance Co-operative Union Limited 2.27, Nandi Teachers SACCO 1.78%, Aembu FCS Limited 1.77% Mungania Tea Growers SACCO 1.57%. The top 10 individuals are all senior managers and board members (4%)with about 51,000 other shareholders, but there’s no lock-up period for their shares. Equity listed with 2,800 shareholders

Recapitalize a Subsidiary - Co-op consultancy services (-17m reserves) which builds capacity among SACCO’s is also one of the goals from the listing

Subscription: mid week, little traffic and activity among brokers and at various IPO tents around town. Subdued but significant marketing is taking place. Adverts in the newspapers (even the Weekly Citizen tabloid) and on TV

Timing of Listing IPO euphoria for shares has dampened somewhat since the Safaricom IPO and the downward trend of the market right up to the start of the Co-OP IPO

Transaction advisersLead advisers – PKF added to Dyer & Blair, National Bank added as a receiving bank

Valuation beyond setting the basis for the offer price at 9.50, there’s no comparison to peer banks of this size (KCB, Barclays, Equity) which would be expected.

Verdict slight over-subscription expected. barring Safaricom, past IPO’s generally appreciate after listing long enough for speculators to cash out. The shares are much less than the 10 billion from safariom, but having 1 billion shares floating in the market with a large retail pool will have the shares behave like Mumias Sugar shares [Kenya re 9.50 august 2007 for 240m shares]
Me? bypass for two reasons (i) IPO bypass theory resumes even though a lot of the negatives associated with IPO’s – queues, refunds, hassles seem to be are absent (ii) my portfolio is overweight on financial shares.

Mark Mobius on Emerging Markets

Dr. Mark Mobius, the executive Chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments,is in Nairobi this week. He gave a talk this morning on his investment perspectives. It is especially timely considering the bear market being experience the world over and at the Nairobi Stock Exchange this year.

Some notes
- They are bargain hunters, they love cheap stocks and thus love bear markets
- Emerging markets look good for long term investors for several reasons: they are growing faster than developed countries, they have less debt, they have more reserves, inflation is coming down, they are taking up a lager share of world trade and also trading more with each other
- Bull markets are followed by bear markets which are followed by bull markets then bear......
- Bull markets last longer than bear markets, and values appreciate more during bear markets than they depreciate during bear markets. he said by their measures over the last 20 years bull markets last on average 22 months and values appreciate by 113% while bear markets on average last 6 months and values depreciate 32%
- Various FT funds are concentrated in mainly energy stocks, then banks, raw materials, communications etc.

My take: This is a time to buy Nairobi Stock Exchange Shares (NSE) , if you have the money and a long term investment perspective